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Investment Overview for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)

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1. Latest Earnings

Netflix saw its stock price jump by almost 28% over the last four months (Oct 2019 to Jan 2020), on account of better than expected international streaming growth and continuously improving profitability. Though the company beat revenue and earnings consensus for Q4 and FY 2019, the stock price fell by 3.5% a day after the earnings announcement, as Netflix missed new subscription growth in the US for the third quarter in a row. However, the company’s international streaming growth surpassed expectations. Based on its current market price and future growth prospects, Netflix still looks undervalued. Trefis has a price estimate of $363 per share for Netflix’s stock, which is higher than its current market price of $349 as on January 23, 2020. This reflects an upside of ~4% from its current level.

2. Netflix's international growth

Netflix’s international growth has been solid so far, as the company has rolled out its service to a number of markets. Netflix has been targeting the Asia-Pacific in a big way, and the market holds a lot of promise for Netflix. We believe that Netflix will experience healthy adoption rates in the newly launched countries on the strength of its original content and its competitive pricing. Netflix’s international subscriber base has grown from 1.9 million customers in 2011, to nearly 115 million by the end of 2019. Taking a long-term perspective, we believe that Netflix can cross 240 million international subscribers by the end of our forecast period.

3. International margins under pressure due to rapid expansion

Netflix’s international streaming margins have improved steadily over the years, climbing from -127% in 2012 to 11.1% in 2018, before dropping to 6.2% in 2019. While the margins were put under pressure last year due to the additional costs which were undertaken to expand its content library, we believe that as Netflix starts experiencing operational efficiencies in its target countries the margins will improve. The marketing expenses will also come down as a percent of sales, once the company establishes itself in these countries.

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Below are key drivers of Netflix's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Netflix:

Netflix's U.S. Streaming Subscribers: Currently we forecast Netflix's U.S. streaming subscriber base to increase from around 63 million in 2019 to more than 78 million by end of our forecast period. There could be more than 10% downside to our price estimate if this figure remains below 68 million instead. This could happen if the market growth for streaming slows down, and competition weighs heavy in the future. On the other hand, there could be around 10% upside to our price estimate if Netflix blows past expectations, and captures more than 100 million U.S. subscribers.

Domestic Streaming Contribution Margin: Currently we forecast this figure to rise from about 37.7% in 2019, to close to 44% by the end of our forecast period. However, there could be a downside of about 10% to our price estimate if the margin was to decline to 28%. On the other hand, there could be upside of about 10% if this figure was to increase to over 50% instead.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Netflix at the top of the page.

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Netflix offers video rental service in the form of DVDs, as well as online streaming to U.S. customers. The company also offers streaming services in international markets and is currently available in about 200 countries.

Netflix's content is available for streaming through a variety of devices such as PCs, Macs, video game consoles, tablets, and smartphones. The company is consistently working toward striking more content deals in order to improve its online library.

In the case of DVDs, Netflix's customers can choose the videos they want to rent from an online library available on the company's website. Unlike traditional video rental businesses, such as Blockbuster and Redbox, Netflix does not have any store locations and instead delivers DVDs through the postal mail.

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The majority of Netflix's value is currently hinged on its U.S. Streaming services for the following reasons:

Firstly, the DVD subscribers are expected to decline significantly in the U.S., while streaming subscribers are expected to grow. The home video market is growing in the U.S. and streaming is the best way to tap into it given the proliferation of multiple internet-enabled devices. Netflix has seen rapid adoption of its streaming plans in the U.S. Although the competition is intensifying, Netflix remains a leader in the streaming segment.

Secondly, the international streaming business is currently a relatively lower value contributor, but this is expected to change in the future as the US streaming market becomes saturated. Netflix has expanded into more than 190 countries.

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Online Streaming

There is a very clear shift of video consumption to the Internet, and Netflix is one of the companies leading this change. The company's DVD subscribers are declining and future growth will come from streaming subscribers. Eventually, the company would like to replace all of its physical DVDs with the online library.

International Expansion

Netflix has been rapidly rolling out its service into new markets and has seen a strong uptake in those markets. We expect that to continue going forward. The company now has a presence in more than 190 countries.

Increasing Competition in Online Streaming

Netflix has been facing increasing competition in online streaming. Along with Amazon and Hulu, there are more and more streaming options from companies such as CBS, HBO, Disney+ and Apple.

Growing Focus On Improving Content and increasing Original Content

Netflix’s original content has improved the perception of the overall brand. The company’s original programming has garnered critical acclaim by scoring many award nominations in recent years, including, House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, The Crown, Stranger Things Series, to name a few. Netflix has effectively marketed these exclusive shows to maintain its subscriber momentum.

How Does Trefis Modelling Work?

How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?

Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.

Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?

The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.

How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?

1. We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
2. We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.

See more on: DCF Methodology

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