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Investment Overview for L'Oreal (OTC:LRLCY)

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Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak

The Covid-19 outbreak and the resulting lock downs and quarantine will likely hurt L'Oreal's 1H 2020 sales, across all segments, as the current lockdown situation will negatively affect makeup and fragrance sales, as people are just not going out as often. The H1 '20 results in August will confirm this reality.

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L'Oreal's Market Share of Global Hair Care Market: Hair Care Market Share for L'Oréal declined from 24.3% in 2009, to 22% in 2012, and was around to 24%, 23%, and 20% in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. In 2016, the company's market share stood at 20% and around the same in 2018. The company pulled out its Garnier brand from China in a bid to focus exclusively on prestige beauty products in the region. We currently forecast L'Oréal's share of the Hair Care market to reach 21% by the end of our forecast period. There could be a marginal downside to the Trefis price estimate if the market share remains flat at the current level.

L'Oreal's Market Share of Global Skin Care Market: L'Oréal's Skin Care Market Share expanded from 12.3% in 2009 to close to 14% in 2014 before declining to around 12% in 2016 and 2018. We currently forecast L'Oréal's share of the Skin Care market to grow to about 13% by the end of our forecast period. There could be a marginal downside to the Trefis price estimate if the market share were to remain flat at the current level.

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L’Oreal is the largest manufacturer of cosmetics in the world. It manufactures and sells makeup, fragrances, skin care, and hair care products through over 30 global brands. It caters to consumers across all income levels and distribution channels spanning mass volume retailers and drugstores, to upscale perfumeries, pharmacies, department stores, company-owned stores, and e-commerce websites.

L’Oreal reports and segments its products range on the basis of price range and distribution channel into: Professional, Consumer, Luxury, and Active products.

1. Professional Products

constitute ~15% of net sales and are meant for professional hair care by stylists at hair salons. The main brands include: L’Oreal Professional, Kerastase, Matrix, Mizani, and Redken.

2. Consumer Products

 constitute approximately 50% of cosmetics sales and are sold through mass volume retailers and drugstores. Consumer products include makeup, skin care and hair care products, competitively priced and distributed through mass-market retailing channels. The main brands include: Garnier (skin and hair care for men and women), L’Oreal Paris (skin care, makeup, hair care, and hair colors under Studio-Line, Dermo-Expertise, and Elseve product lines), Maybelline New York and Softsheen-Carson (hair care for African ethnic descent consumers).

3. Luxury Products

 constitute about 30% of cosmetics sales and comprise prestigious brands and premium service through department stores, upscale perfumeries, travel retail outlets, as well as free standing stores and e-commerce websites. The main brands include Lancome, Biotherm, and Kiehl’s.

4. Active Products

constitute about 8% of cosmetics sales and include dermo-cosmetic (cosmetics with medicinal ingredients and recommended by pharmacists and dermatologists) skin care products sold exclusively through pharmacies, specialty drugstores, medi-spas, and even dermatologists. The main brands are La Roche-Posay, Skinceuticals, Vichy, and Sanoflore.

5. The Body Shop

constitutes about 1% of net sales and includes a chain of over 3,100 free standing ‘The Body Shop’ stores in over 60 countries across the globe. Acquired in 2006, The Body Shop range of cosmetics is well known for its products based on natural ingredients and the brand’s strong ethical commitments and fair-trade practices.

L'Oreal also has ~ 9% stake in Sanofi Aventis, the dividend from which contributes significant value to L'Oreal's stock.

Despite L’Oreal’s global presence, about 35% of its cosmetics revenue comes from Western Europe and over 25% from North America. Asia accounts for about 23% of its cosmetics sales. Latin America and Eastern Europe currently contribute around 8% and 6%, respectively.

L'Oréal's main competitors include other major global beauty care products manufacturers such as Revlon, Estee Lauder, Avon, Shiseido, and Procter & Gamble, among others.

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Leading market share in Skin Care, Fragrances, and Makeup

L'Oreal has the largest market share in the Skin Care segment, the largest and fastest growing segment within Beauty Care (on account of anti-aging skincare and skin care for men), as well as in the Fragrances and Makeup segment.

Second largest market share in hair care, the second largest product segment (after skin care) within beauty care

Hair care is a stable and growing market, and L'Oreal commands the second largest share in the segment, after Procter & Gamble. Hair care accounts for about 20.5% of L'Oreal's net sales.

Highest R&D as percentage of net sales and marketing expenses in the beauty care industry which ensures market leadership

Launching new and innovative products is crucial to growing or even maintaining share in the beauty care industry. L'Oreal spends more on R&D as a percentage of sales as compared to its competitors. This has helped L'Oreal remain a leader in the cosmetics market. 

On the basis of revenue, L'Oreal (at ~$30 billion) is much larger than Revlon ($2 billion), Avon ($9 billion), and Estee Lauder ($11 billion). Therefore, L'Oreal has more money to spend on marketing, which is an extremely important factor for success in the cosmetics industry.

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Booming Skin Care due to anti-aging creams

Anti-aging creams and anti-cellulite skin care products are in high demand among the aging populations in developed countries, notably Japan (oldest demographic), the U.S., and Western Europe. A big chunk of L'Oréal's skin-care business comes from anti-aging products. The anti-aging market comprises of those products that can treat multiple signs of skin aging at one time, and is a fast-growing segment under the anti-aging beauty products.

Growth of natural products categories and "Masstige" segment as well as male product lines

There is a growing demand for natural / organic products in most countries, a trend led by the developed markets in the U.S. and Western Europe. Additionally, there is an increased preference for less synthetic, eco-friendly, and more natural products and packaging.

There is a growing trend towards the so-called "Masstige," or premium brands sold at lower prices through mass distribution. In addition, beauty care products focused on men is the latest niche being targeted by most players globally. In developed markets, particularly in the U.S. and Western Europe, the introduction and extension of the men’s product lines is a major source of growth.

How Does Trefis Modelling Work?

How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?

Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.

Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?

The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.

How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?

1. We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
2. We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.

See more on: DCF Methodology

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