$1 Million In SCHD Five Years Ago: What Is It Worth Now?
This week the headlines were loud: a chip giant’s CEO, an IPO, a hot inflation print. Before the weekend, with coffee and your brokerage statement, a quieter question is worth five minutes. Suppose you had put $1 million into SCHD, the Schwab dividend fund, in November 2021 and reinvested every dividend.
Today it would be worth about $1.63 million. The same million in an S&P 500 fund (SPY) would be about $1.73 million; in DGRO, about $1.70 million; in VYM, about $1.73 million. Over ten years SCHD turned $1 million into about $3.57 million, against $4.10 million for the S&P 500.
So the S&P 500 won by about $104,000 over five years. Tech-heavy funds won by far more: XLK reached about $2.16 million. That is a fair result, and worth saying plainly. It is not the whole story.
The S&P 500’s edge is smaller than it looks once you count the ride. For families with seven figures invested, the right mix is the one you can hold through a 25% drop, not the one with the best ending number. Which is yours? A Trefis partner firm can test it with you in a free 30-minute call.
Which Ride Would You Have Stayed On?
| Fund | $1M, 5 years | Worst drop | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHD | $1.63M | −16.8% | −3.3% |
| S&P 500 | $1.73M | −24.5% | −18.2% |
| XLK (tech) | $2.16M | −33.6% | −27.7% |
Total returns with dividends reinvested, Nov 12, 2021 to Nov 12, 2026; worst drop = largest peak-to-trough fall in those five years.
Picture 2022. Every $1 million in the S&P 500 at the start of that year showed about $818,000 at its end; in SCHD, about $967,000. Which one would you have sold? SCHD’s worst calendar year since 2012 is −5.6%, in 2018; the S&P 500’s over the same years is −18.2%, in 2022.
Trefis looks at gain per pain: return per unit of drop. Over five years, SCHD earned about 3.7 points of return for each point of its worst fall, the S&P 500 about 3.0 and XLK about 3.4. Each fund did its job. The S&P 500 owns the AI leaders: Nvidia alone is about 6.1% of it, and the top ten holdings 37%. SCHD owns a different set of companies, chosen for their dividends, and pays about 2.9% a year, roughly $48,000 on $1.63 million.
Patience also has a shape. SCHD returned 4.5%, 11.7% and 4.3% in 2023-2025, while the S&P 500 compounded far faster. Then 2026: SCHD is up 34.2% this year, the S&P 500 11.9%. Three quiet years, then one loud one. Would you still have been there?
Questions To Keep
- Is the number that matters what you ended with, or what you held on through?
- How much of your money already rides on Nvidia, counting every fund? Nvidia Is 6.1% Of Your S&P 500 Fund. What Is Your Number?
- What would it take for $2 million to pay you $4,000 a month?
Want A Second Opinion On Your Mix?
The S&P 500 fell 24.5% at its worst in these five years; SCHD 16.8%. For families with seven figures invested, a second look at which drop your plan can take is a free 30-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For education, not a recommendation to buy or sell any fund. Past returns do not predict future returns.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.