Should You Keep Waiting For Boeing Stock To Come Back?
Boeing (BA) stock trades 56.6% below the high it closed at in March 2019. If you still measure the stock against that old close, assuming that is where Boeing belongs, every rally looks like another step on the way back. So how big a climb is it from here back to the March 2019 high?
Boeing Stock Needs A 130% Gain To Get Back
Following a 56.6% fall, Boeing stock needs a 130% gain to return to its old high. This climb is more than twice the size of the drop. Spreading that recovery over three years would still require a 32% annual return.
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Has Boeing Stock Ever Gained 130% In Three Years?
Look at every three-year period over the last ten years. Out of all those rolling windows, each 756 trading sessions long and starting on each trading day, Boeing stock gained 130% or more in only 1.9% of them. The stock has managed a 130% gain in three years before, but only seldom. Returning to its old high within three years will require a rare feat for Boeing stock.
What Has Waiting Cost Boeing Holders?
Holders who bought at the high have now waited 7.6 years. Over that time, Boeing stock is down 56.6% before dividends, while the S&P 500 is up 174.3%, also before dividends. The cost of waiting for those holders is the loss on Boeing plus the gain the same money would have made in the index.
Is Boeing The Same Business It Was Then?
Sales at Boeing today sit a little below where they were at the high, while its profits have shrunk far more.
| Boeing | At the high, March 2019 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $440.62 | $191.42 |
| Business figures: twelve months ended | 2018-12-31 | 2026-06-30 |
| Revenue, twelve months | $101,127 million | $93,995 million |
| Operating margin | 11.7% | -5.4% |
| Net income, twelve months | $10,460 million | $2,435 million |
Share prices are split-adjusted closes on March 1, 2019 and October 19, 2026. Business figures are as reported, for the twelve months to the last fiscal quarter Boeing had reported on or before each date.
Across its Commercial Airplanes, Defense, Space & Security and Global Services businesses, revenue over the twelve months to June 2026 was 7.1% below the twelve months of 2018. Over those same years, Boeing’s operating margin went from 11.7% to an operating loss equal to 5.4% of sales.
The old high belonged to a stronger business than today’s. Boeing still made a profit after all its costs over its latest twelve months, but only because of the three months to December 2025, and the total was less than a quarter of what it made in 2018. The better question for Boeing holders is whether a company that lost money on its operations over those twelve months is worth 1.6 times its sales, not when the March 2019 price comes back.
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