Where Could UnitedHealth’s Next Growth Come From?
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) could find its next growth engine in the care it delivers. That perspective carries weight right now. During the company’s October 13 call, management raised its 2026 outlook to adjusted earnings per share of at least $20.50. Yet executives also warned that medical costs remain stubbornly high across health care. So which part of UnitedHealth’s care business still has room to grow?
Optum Health Has Room To Add Fully Accountable Patients
Optum Health, the care division of the company, is returning to value-based care. Executives noted on the October 13 call that the unit serves 20 million patients, with about 4 million of them in fully accountable relationships. This leaves roughly four in five of those patients outside such arrangements. Management indicated that the business still has room for fully accountable growth.
The division continued to deliver strong performance in fiscal Q3 2026. Management said this was driven by the continued return to value-based care principles. The company highlighted high-performing service lines such as home health, hospice and surgery centers. Additionally, the chief financial officer told CNBC that investments in value-based care are taking hold.
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How Big Is Optum Health Inside UnitedHealth?
Optum Health generated 22.8% of UnitedHealth’s revenue in fiscal 2025. Optum Rx brought in 34.6%. Combined segment shares exceed 100% because segment revenue can include internal sales between divisions. Even as a major piece of the broader organization, Optum Health shrank last year. Specifically, its revenue fell 3.2% in fiscal 2025. That decline followed 10.5% growth in fiscal 2024. Management has set a margin target for Optum Health of 6% to 8%, calling the effort to get there a multi-year journey.
UnitedHealth’s share price rose 16.0% over the year to October 15. This lagged behind the 16.6% rise in the S&P 500. The October 15 close sat 6.2% below the stock’s highest close of the past year, which it reached on July 21. The current price appears to assume less than it did at the July high.
What Has To Go Right For Optum Health?
Optum Health needs to demonstrate that its margin is moving toward management’s target. The question of where Optum Health margins might land in 2027 came up during the October 13 call. Management said only that the company would give more color on 2027 before the end of the year.
A risk also exists on the insurance side. Management indicated that cost trends for commercial benefits are exceeding its initial expectations of 11%. Management said reaching long-term margins for the commercial business will take longer. UnitedHealthcare, the insurance arm, brought in 77.1% of company revenue in fiscal 2025.
The key metric to watch for UnitedHealth’s care-led growth is Optum Health’s margin against management’s target. Investors can look for further detail on 2027 before year-end, which management said it would provide. Beyond that, the next major update will arrive in the report expected on or around January 25, 2027.
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