Can Applied Materials Stock Bounce After Shedding 16% Last Month?

Applied Materials Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AMAT) is down 16% in the past month, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 which was itself down 9% over this period. If you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned -2.5% and -2.4%, performing worse than the broader markets on both occasions. AMAT’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $6.2 billion in Q3 ’21 to $6.52 billion in Q3 ’22, driven primarily by a rise in sales from the semiconductor systems segment. However, with rising COGS and operating expenses, the company reported operating income of $1.92 billion, down from $2.01 billion for Q3 ’21. Due to this, the company’s net earnings dropped, and EPS came in lower at $1.86, compared to $1.89 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is Applied Materials stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 71% chance of a rise in AMAT stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on AMAT Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: AMAT -16%, vs. S&P500 -9%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 71% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• AMAT stock lost 16% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 9%
• A change of -16% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 55 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 55 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 39 occasions
• This points to a 71% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMAT -2.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; Underperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• AMAT stock lost 2.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.7%
• A change of -2.4% or more over ten trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 765 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 765 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 422 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMAT -2.5%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Underperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

• AMAT stock lost 2.5% over a five-day trading period ending 9/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.3% over this period.
• A change of -2.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 489 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 489 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 282 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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