Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) is likely to benefit from the rising trend in Revenue per Square Foot for Anthropologie Stores, which we estimate accounts for around 28% of the company’s share value. Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for one key driver of Urban Outfitters’ stock price, Anthropologie Revenue per Square Foot. These forecasts suggest that the driver will trend in-line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Urban Outfitters competes with other specialty apparel retailers like Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO), Gap (NYSE:GPS), J.Crew Group (NYSE:JCG) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $40 for Urban Outfitters’ stock, about 20% above the current market price of $33.
Urban Outfitters’s stock is quite sensitive to Anthropologie Revenue per Square Foot. Below is the chart showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the one driver in detail.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Anthropologie Revenue per Square Foot indicate an increase from around $773 in 2010 to around $926 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $789 in 2010 to around $924 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Urban Outfitters’ stock. In the past, Anthropologie Revenue per Square Foot has increased from $659.50 in 2004 to around $744 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Urban Outfitters Inc.’s stock to Anthropologie Revenue per Square Foot.