Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) offers consumer anti-virus and internet security software used in personal computers under the brand name Norton, which constitutes around 33% of the $24 Trefis price estimate of Symantec’s stock. Symantec competes with other antivirus providers like McAfee (NYSE:MFE), CA, AVG, TrendMicro and Kaspersky Labs.
Given the importance of its flagship product Norton, Symantec’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software, (2) Norton Antivirus Software EBITDA Margin.
Trefis members have created forecasts Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market Share over the last week. Their forecasts suggest that Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market will trend lower than the Trefis forecast.
1. Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market
The average of forecasts for Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from 51% in 2010 to 43% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 53% in 2010 to 47% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Symantec’s stock. In the past, Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market has decreased from 56% in 2005 to 52% in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Symantec’s stock to Symantec’s Share in Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market.
Our complete analysis for Symantec’s Consumer Antivirus & Security Software Market Share is here.
2. Norton Antivirus Software EBITDA Margin
Symatec’s Norton Antivirus Software EBITDA margin has declined consistently from 58% in 2005 to 44% in 2009. We estimate that Norton’s profit margin will continue sliding downward to reach 35% by the end of Trefis forecast period. Our forecast is based on factors such as increasing R&D and SG&A expenses, and reduction in Norton’s product pricing thus affecting its margins.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Symantec’s stock to Norton Antivirus Software EBITDA Margin.
