SanDisk (NYSE:SNDK) competes with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE) in the portable media player (PMP) market. SanDisk sells flash-based digital media players under the brand name Sansa. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of the $50 for SanDisk’s stock, about 15% above the current market price of around $44.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of SanDisk’s (NYSE:SNDK) stock over the last week: (1) Global Portable Media Player Units and (2) Sansa Market Share. The member forecasts suggest that Global PMP Units and Sansa Market Share will trend higher than the Trefis forecast. Their projections suggest a very small upside to SanDisk’s stock.
Since Sansa MP3 players account for less than 1% of the $50 Trefis price estimate for SanDisk’s stock, we think the stock is not much impacted by (1) Global Portable Media Player Units and (2) Sansa Market Share. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Global Portable Media Player (PMP) Units
The average of forecasts for Global Portable Media Player (PMP) Units created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from 148 million in 2010 to 111 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 144 million in 2010 to 96 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply little upside to the Trefis price estimate for SanDisk’s stock. In the past, Global PMP Units has increased from 120 million in 2005 to 180 million in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of SanDisk’s stock to Global PMP Units.
Our complete analysis for Global PMP Units is here.
2. Sansa Market Share in PMP Market
The average of forecasts for Sansa Market Share created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 4.6% in 2010 to 8.2% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 4% in 2010 to 7% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates suggest limited upside to the Trefis price estimate for SanDisk’s stock. In the past, Sansa Market Share has increased from 1.5% in 2005 to 3.5% in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of SanDisk’s stock to Sansa Market Share.
