Sprint’s (NYSE:S) stock could benefit significantly from higher CDMA wireless market share. Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Sprint Nextel’s stock over the last week: (1) Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share and (2) Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $4.79 for Sprint Nextel’s stock, about 14% above the current market price of $4.19.
The member forecasts suggest that Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share will trend above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis, while Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing will roughly trend in-line. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 14% for Sprint’s stock. Sprint competes with AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) in mobile plans and phones business.
Sprint Nextel’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share and (2) Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share indicate an increase from 10.3% in 2010 to 12% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 9.7% in 2010 to 10.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 17% to the Trefis price estimate for Sprint Nextel’s stock. In the past, Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share has decreased from around 11% in 2003 to around 10% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Sprint Nextel’s stock to Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share.
Our complete analysis for Sprint CDMA’s wireless market share is here.
2. Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing indicate a decrease from $34 per month in 2010 to $33 per month by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $34.50 per month in 2010 to $34 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Sprint Nextel’s stock. In the past, Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing has decreased from $63 per month in 2003 to $36 per month in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Sprint Nextel’s stock to Sprint Mobile Subscriber Plan Pricing.
