Qualcomm’s (NASDAQ:QCOM) stock is quite sensitive to (1) CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing and (2) Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share. The Trefis member forecasts suggest that CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing will be in-line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis, while Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share will trend slightly above, meaning that there could be an upside to Qualcomm’s stock.
Qualcomm manufactures integrated mobile chipsets used in mobile phones made by companies like Motorola (NYSE:MOT) and Nokia (NYSE:NOK). It competes with Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), and Infineon in this market.
We estimate that the mobile chipset business accounts for close to half of the company’s stock value. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $48 for Qualcomm’s stock, about 24% above the current market price of around $39.
Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing
The average of Trefis member forecasts for CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing indicate a decrease from around $16 in 2010 to around $15 by 2016, in-line with the baseline Trefis estimates. In the past, CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing decreased from around $22 in 2005 to $18 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Qualcomm’s stock to CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing.
Our complete analysis for CDMA Mobile Phone Chipset Pricing is here.
2. Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share indicate a decrease from around 66% in 2010 to 65% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 66% in 2010 to 60% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm’s stock. In the past, Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share decreased from 81% in 2005 to 69% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Qualcomm’s stock to Qualcomm CDMA Chipset Market Share.
