Higher revenue per case and market share for Pepsi could lift PepsiCo’s (NYSE:PEP) stock by a modest 2%. The limited impact is due to Pepsi sodas accounting for only around 7% of PepsiCo’s value, while majority of the company’s value can be attributed to Frito-Lay.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of PepsiCo’s stock over the last week: (1) Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share and (2) Pepsi’s US Revenue per Case. The member forecasts suggest that both drivers will trend above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
PepsiCo competes with Coca Cola (NYSE:KO), Dr Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS), and National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) in the carbonated soft drink market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $67 for PepsiCo’s stock, 4% above the current market price of around $65.
Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share indicate an increase from 11% in 2010 to 11.2% by 2016, compared to the flat baseline Trefis estimate of around 10% over the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for PepsiCo’s stock. In the past, Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share has decreased from 11.2% in 2005 to around 10% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of PepsiCo’s stock to Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share.
Our complete analysis for Pepsi’s US CSD Market Share is here.
2. Pepsi’s US Revenue per Case
The average of forecasts for Pepsi’s US Revenue per Case created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from $2.50 in 2010 to $3.10 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $2.40 in 2010 to $2.80 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for PepsiCo’s stock. In the past, Pepsi’s US Revenue per Case has remained flat at $1.40 from 2005 to 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of PepsiCo’s stock to Pepsi’s US Revenue per Case.
