Is Yelp’s Acquisition of SeatMe Really A Threat To OpenTable?

by Trefis Team
-0.43%
Downside
70.43
Market
70.13
Trefis
OPEN
OpenTable
Rate   |   votes   |   Share

Late last week, OpenTable’s (NASDAQ:OPEN) shares took a beating over trading when the popular rating and review website Yelp (NYSE:YELP) announced its decision to enter into the restaurant reservation industry with the acquisition of SeatMe. [1] The perceived threat to OpenTable’s position as the leader in the online restaurant reservation space triggered a sell-off among investors leading to a decline in share price from almost $67 before Yelp’s announcement to the current price of just above $62 – a 7% fall.

While OpenTable has its fair share of competitors providing similar online reservation and seating management services including Urbanspoon, Livebookings, UReserve and CityEats to name a few, Yelp’s acquisition is believed to hurt OpenTable on two fronts: not only will Yelp’s strong online presence elevate SeatMe to the position of a formidable competitor in the industry but OpenTable will also lose the diners who book tables at restaurants after reading reviews on Yelp using OpenTable’s integrated reservation service.

We agree that with Yelp in the picture, OpenTable will have to work harder to add new restaurant to its customer base as well as to retain its existing customers. But when it comes to the impact of this acquisition on the number of diners seated by the company, we don’t see much of an issue for OpenTable in the future simply because diners booking through Yelp form a really small part of the total number of diners seated by the company over any period.

We stick to our $56 price estimate for OpenTable’s stock for the time being, as SeatMe’s acquisition doesn’t seem to pose a real threat to the company at least in the near future.

See our complete analysis for OpenTable

Founded just two years ago, SeatMe has gained a notable presence in the online restaurant reservation industry by capitalizing the one factor that has been a common complaint among many of OpenTable’s existing and former restaurant customers – high usage costs. Nearly all of OpenTable’s competitors have focused on growing their restaurant base by advertising themselves as cheaper alternatives to OpenTable – something which we have written about on several occasions (see Competitors Look to Topple OpenTable With Low Fees).

That said, OpenTable still remains the undisputed leader in the industry with the company enlisting nearly 50% of all full-service reservation-taking restaurants in North America as its customers. And all these restaurants use OpenTable’s core Electronic Reservation Book (ERB) system which is the company’s main subscription revenue driver.

But as can be seen from the chart above, reservations (and not subscriptions) add the most value to OpenTable’s business. Now OpenTable seated more than 20 million diners in restaurants across North America in Q1 2013. And going by what the company revealed as a part of a presentation this May, partner sites brought in between 5% to 10% of this figure. [2] Yelp may be one of OpenTable’s most important partners in terms of diners brought in, but then the company has no less than 600 partners including the likes of Zagat, TripAdvisor, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO).

So to understand the worst case scenario impact of Yelp’s decision to acquire SeatMe, lets just say Yelp brought in 5% of all of OpenTable’s diners. While clearly an exaggeration, this assumption will help us identify the potential loss in value for OpenTable better. On adjusting the number of North American diners per restaurant to a figure 5% lower over coming years in the chart below, you will see that OpenTable’s estimated share price reduces from $56 to $55 – a mere 2% decline in the worst case scenarios.

Clearly, the market exaggerated the impact of the news on OpenTable by shaving 7% off the company’s value in response. Yelp and SeatMe joining forces is definitely not good news for OpenTable, but it is far from being the end of the world for the restaurant reservation giant.

Submit a Post at Trefis Powered by Data and Interactive ChartsUnderstand What Drives a Stock at Trefis

Notes:
  1. Yelp To Acquire SeatMe, Yelp News Release, Jul 18 2013 []
  2. OpenTable Corporate Presentation, OpenTable Website, May 2 2013 []
Rate   |   votes   |   Share

Comments

Name (Required)
Email (Required, but never displayed)
OpenTable Logo
  • commented 9 months ago
  • tags: OPEN YHOO YELP GOOG
  • Get paid for all the reviews that you wrote for Yelp! over the years.
    Federal and State laws state that as Yelp! had the right to control you as a reviewer/writer and as the reviews you wrote were essential* to their business of reviewing restaurants and businesses that you must be paid wages for all the reviews you wrote.
    We will ask the Court to award approximately $100 per review that you wrote. For example, if you wrote 650 reviews, we will ask the Court to order Yelp! to pay you your wages of $65,000.00. It doesn't matter in the eyes of the law that you were convinced to work for Yelp! for free as you can't legally waive your right to wages. As this is a class action, if you want to continue to work for Yelp! you can do so as it is likely that a multitude of Yelp! unpaid reviewers will share in the court ordered award.
    Clearly Yelp! owes you wages under the Nature of the Business test. Yelp! admits that it would not exist if not for you, a reviewer. But we'd like to know about Yelp!'s control of you in writing a particular way, how you had to do things their way at every stage, disciplined you for not following their rules and fired you.
    Go here and communicate with the 13th Amendment Law Firm (The 13th Amendment freed the slaves in 1865).
    http://www.YelpClassAction.info
    llll