Microsoft Baits Win 8 Watchers With Preview Version Available In June

April 26th, 2012 by Trefis Team
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Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has announced that it will be launching yet another pre-release version of Windows 8 — the Windows 8 Release Preview — in June 2012. Microsoft had earlier launched the Consumer Preview of Windows 8 in February, at the Mobile World Congress. The new Release Preview is the last release before the final launch, which is expected in October 2012. [1] Windows 8 will compete with Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Linux based distros in the desktop OS space, and Apple’s iOS and Google‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android in the tablet OS market.

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Microsoft’s future depends on the success of Windows 8

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Windows 8 is going to be a crucial release for Microsoft as it tries to maintain its dominant position in the shrinking PC market and enter the rapidly expanding tablet market currently dominated by Apple and Google. Microsoft will work with partners to release both Intel and ARM powered Windows 8 devices before October, making an entry into the tablet market before the holiday season. We expect Windows 8 to be a bigger hit than Windows 7, which has sold around 550 million licenses to date, as it will target a much larger market. We expect Microsoft’s market share in the OS market to jump to 77% in 2012, following the Windows 8 launch.

However, there is a chance that Microsoft may have been a bit too late to the tablet market, as Apple continues to rule the space and Android prepares to target the budget segment to gain market share. In comparison, Windows 8 tablets are expected to be priced at a premium compared to the iPad, which could make it hard for it to quickly gain market share.

Since Windows accounts for a significant portion of Microsoft’s revenue and around 26% of its total value, there could be a significant impact to Microsoft’s stock price estimate, if it fails to take off and pulls a “Vista” instead of a ” Windows 7″. 2012 is going to be a decisive year for Microsoft, and will indicate whether or not Microsoft can compete in a post-PC world.

We currently have a $38 Trefis price estimate for Microsoft, which stands nearly 20% above its market price.

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Notes:
  1. Microsoft slates Windows 8 ‘release preview’ for early June, Computer World [↩]