Lexmark Earnings Preview:Growth In Laser Supplies And Perceptive In Focus

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LXK: Lexmark International logo
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Lexmark International

Lexmark International (NYSE:LXK) is set to release its Q4 2014 results on January 27th. Lexmark’s revenues continue to decline as it transitions from low margin hardware-centric inkjet printer business to high-margin services business. However, recent results indicate that the decline in Lexmark’s revenues is slowing. Nevertheless, operating income and net income are growing, reflecting a shift in focus from low margin hardware to high margin software services. We expect the company to report a similar trend in its Q4 earnings announcement. However, we will be closely following the growth in the number of new licenses for its Managed Print Services (MPS) business, as it can offset the decline in non-MPS revenues of imaging and software solutions (ISS).

See our full analysis on Lexmark

Outlook For Q4 And 2014

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For Q4 FY14, the company expects revenues to decline by 2% to 4% year over year and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the $1.10 to $1.20 range. Lexmark has revised its revenue guidance for FY 2014 upwards and expects revenue to decline at a slower rate, specifically by 1% or less. Non-GAAP EPS guidance has also been revised upwards to $4.05 to $4.15 range.

Laser And MPS Revenues to Boost Supplies Revenues

The laser printer and cartridge division is its biggest business unit and makes up for over 84% of Lexmark’s estimated value. In the recent quarters, unit sales of printer hardware and supplies have declined, both for Lexmark and the market at large. This is impacting both laser printers and inkjet printers, which the company no longer produces. [1] We expect Lexmark to gain ground in the laser market in Q4, and buck the downtrend in the Hardcopy Peripherals Market, which declined by 4% year over year in Q3. Furthermore, there has been a gradual shift in hardcopy peripheral devices away from the desktop and towards more shared and centralized solutions. This shift is driving some of the growth in the printer hardware sales. It is also bolstering revenues for companies that provide MPS, which includes procurement, maintenance and other aspects of printing. We expect that MPS integrated with Perceptive’s solutions will deliver value to Lexmark’s growing client base. We also expect MPS to propel the supplies revenues as most of the MPS contracts also contain a clause for supplying printer stationery and cartridges. Going forward, we expect MPS to become the biggest driver of revenue for the ISS.

Revenue Growth from Perceptive Software in Focus

The Perceptive software division is the second biggest business unit and makes up nearly 11.2% of Lexmark’s estimated value. As Lexmark plans to become an end-to-end solution provider, Perceptive Software is becoming an increasingly important division for Lexmark. Perceptive experienced annual growth of 53% in the Enterprise Content Management (ECM) business in 2013, and reported $239 million in revenues for FY13. To ensure that the growth in this line of business continues, the company continues to acquire companies that can bolster Perceptive’s portfolio and reach across the globe. As a result of these efforts, we expect growth trend to continue in Q4, and in 2014. We also expect that the growth in Perceptive’s licensing revenue will contribute to the bottom line in Q4 as it is a high margin business. In this earnings call, we will continue to closely follow the deal pipeline for the Perceptive software business.

We currently have a $44.30 Trefis price estimate for Lexmark, which is 12% above its current market price.

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Notes:
  1. Worldwide Large Format Printer Shipments Continue on Growth Trajectory in the Third Quarter of 2014, According to IDC, December 04 2014 []