Macau’s VIP Baccarat Gamblers Light up Las Vegas Sands’ Outlook

by Trefis Team
+20.95%
Upside
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Market
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Trefis
LVS
Las Vegas Sands
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VIP baccarat tables account for the largest chunk of Las Vegas Sands’ (NYSE:LVS) gaming revenues in Macau. In 2007-08, the company saw substantial increases in its Macau VIP table game wagers due to the opening of Venetian Macau in August 2007 and the Four Seasons Macao in August 2008, and we expect this momentum to continue with the scheduled opening of the integrated resort at Parcel 5 & 6 in the Cotai strip region in Spring 2012. LVS competes with Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), SJM (HKG:0880), Galaxy (HKG:0027) and Harrah’s among others.

While we estimate LVS’ Macau VIP table game wagers will increase from $126 billion in 2012 to $232 by the end of our forecast period, Trefis members expect an increase from $140 billion to $270 billion during the same period.  The member estimates imply an upside of 5-10% to the Trefis price estimate for LVS’ stock.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $47.90 for Las Vegas Sands’s stock, which is in line with the current market price.

Increasing VIP Baccarat Volumes in Asia

VIP Baccarat is gaining popularity in Asia and particularly in China. In 2010, it generated revenues of $16.9 billion, accounting for 72 percent of the casino sector’s overall revenue and witnessed a 70 percent yearly increase, according to the official data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. [1] In the second quarter of 2011, Macau’s VIP baccarat revenue increased 50% year-on-year recording $6 billion, benefiting the leading casino operators. LVS China registered 100% increase y-o-y in net income for the quarter totaling $267 million. [2]

LVS’ Macau Expansion on Cotai Strip

Las Vegas Sands is one of the leading casino companies in the world and has a presence in the U.S., Singapore and Macau. It’s scheduled to open the Sands Cotai Central, previously Parcel 5 & 6, in Spring 2012. Sands Cotai Central is strategically located next to Melco’s City of Dreams and between The Venetian Macau and Wynn Resorts and MGM’s proposed developments, and will feature 4-star and 5-star branded rooms by Conrad, Holiday Inn, and Sheraton.  See out note titled Las Vegas Sands Plans Macau Expansion with Sands Cotai Central. The development is expected to complete in phases during 2012-13.

Our complete analysis for Las Vegas Sands’s stock is here.

Notes:
  1. VIP baccarat going strong, macaubusiness.com, 18 April 2011 []
  2. Macau – July 2011, theiaga.org, Aug 11, 2011 []
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