Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) competes primarily with AMD (NYSE:AMD) to sell notebook and netbook processors to PC makers like Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), HP (NYSE:HPQ) and Sony (NYSE:SNE). We estimate that the notebook and netbook processor business constitutes 45% of the $22 Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock.
We estimate that Intel had nearly 88% processor market share amongst the 62 million notebooks sold in 2005 and that this figure declined to less than 80% in 2009. Dell’s decision to sell AMD-based notebooks was a significant driver of the historical market share loss.
We expect that Intel will recoup some of the lost notebook processor market share over our forecast period as a result of its lead in the netbook market. Intel’s Atom processor is the dominant processor amongst the growing market for netbooks.
We estimate that Intel’s market share will reach 83% of the 230 million notebooks and netbooks sold by the end of the Trefis forecast period. However, you can modify our forecast for Intel Market Share above to see how the company’s stock would be impacted if it were to continue losing market share to AMD instead of recovering as we have forecast. One reason for continued market share loss could be the success of netbook processors from AMD.
For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for Intel’s stock.
