We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $683 for Google’s stock (NASDAQ:GOOG), about 40% above the current market price of $489. Trefis members have created forecasts for two drivers of Google’s stock price over the last week: (1) Number of Gmail Users and (2) Number of Orkut Users.
Our membership’s Gmail user projections are in line with the Trefis forecast. User projections for the number of Orkut users trend slightly lower than our forecast. These projections suggest no significant impact to Google’s stock.
The Orkut social network and Gmail together constitute around 1% of the $683 Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock. About 75% of the company’s value comes from search advertising. Google’s Gmail competes with other email service providers like Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) and AOL (NYSE:AOL). In the social media space, Google’s main competitor is market leader Facebook.
Below are charts showing recent estimates that Trefis members have created for these two stock price drivers.
On average, Trefis members forecast that the number of Gmail users will increase from 192 million in 2010 to 303 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The baseline Trefis estimate forecasts an increase from 175 million in 2010 to 245 million by the end of the our forecast period. The member estimates imply very little upside to the Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock.
You can drag the forecast trendline in the chart above to express your own view, and see how changes in the Gmail user population impact Google’s stock.
See our complete Gmail user forecast here.
On average, Trefis members predict that the number of Orkut users will increase from 46 million in 2010 to 57 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The baseline Trefis estimate predicts an increase from 47 million users in 2010 to 62 million by the end of our forecast period. The member estimates imply very little downside to the Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see changes in the Orkut user population impact Google’s stock price.
You can see the complete $683 Trefis price estimate for Google’s stock price here.
