Potential for Higher Ford Truck Share in North America

by Trefis Team
+39.23%
Upside
14.45
Market
20.12
Trefis
F
Ford
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Rising market share and pricing of Ford trucks in North America could lift Ford’s stock (NYSE:F) by around 4%. We estimate Ford’s truck business in North America accounts for around 20% of its stock price.

Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Ford Truck Price in North America and Ford Truck Market Share in North America.  The member projections suggest that Ford Truck Price in North America will trend in-line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis, while Ford Truck Market Share in North America will trend higher.

Ford competes with automobile makers Daimler AG (NYSE:DAI), Honda (NYSE:HMC) and Toyota  (NYSE:TM). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $14 for Ford’s stock, about 28% above the current market price of $11. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

1. Ford Truck Price in North America

On average, Trefis member forecasts for Ford Truck Price in North America indicate an increase from $28,670 in 2010 to $32,414 by 2016, in-line with the baseline Trefis estimates.  In the past, Ford Truck Price in North America has increased from $27,049 in 2005 to $28,036 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford Truck Price in North America.

Our complete analysis for Ford Truck Price in North America is here.

2. Ford Truck Market Share in North America

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Ford Truck Market Share in North America indicate an increase from 22% in 2010 to 24% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 19.8% in 2010 to 20.2% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 4% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford’s stock. In the past, Ford Truck Market Share in North America has decreased from 19% in 2005 to 17.8% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford’s stock to Ford Truck Market Share in North America.

Our complete analysis for Ford’s stock is here.

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