Trefis Analysis: What percent of eBay’s stock is PayPal?

by Trefis Team
+26.09%
Upside
32.87
Market
41.44
Trefis
EBAY
eBay
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eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is known primarily for its marketplaces (ebay.com, half.com) where buyers and sellers exchange a variety of merchandise online.  However, the company also makes a significant amount of money from its online payments platform, PayPal.

What percent of eBay’s stock do you think is PayPal?

A. 7%

B. 18%

C. 26%

D. 43%

Make a selection above to see the answer.

A Clue: eBay Take Rate vs. PayPal Take Rate

We estimate that eBay’s marketplaces business constitutes 54% of the $42 Trefis price estimate for eBay’s stock.  Furthemore, we estimate that there will be 1.2 billion items sold through eBay’s marketplaces in 2010 compared to 1.3 billion payments made on PayPal during the same year.

We forecast that the average sale price of an item on eBay will be about $50 in 2010 and that eBay will earn an average marketplaces commission (“take rate”) of 7.6%.  In comparison, we estimate that the aveage payment amount on PayPal will be about $65 in 2010 and that eBay will earn an average PayPal take rate of 3.7%.

For additional forecasts and analysis, here is our complete model for eBay’s stock.

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