Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) parks and resorts are among the most frequented destinations in the world. Disney’s theme parks are built around characters like Mickey Mouse and Iron Man that are familiar from cartoons and films. We estimate that Parks & Resorts constitute around 14% of the $38 Trefis price estimate for Disney’s stock.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Disney’s stock over the last week: (1) Number of Guests at Disney’s U.S. Parks & Resorts and (2) Per Capita Guest Spend at Disney’s U.S. Parks & Resorts. These forecasts trend in line with Trefis estimates and have no significant impact on Disney’s share value.
Disney’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Number of Guests at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts and (2) Per Capita Guest Spend at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Number of Guests at Disney’s U.S. Parks & Resorts
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Number of Guests at Disney’s U.S. Parks & Resorts are in line with our estimates. The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from around 64 million in 2010 to 70.5 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, Disney’s total U.S. guest volume grew from around 59 million in 2004 to 64.5 million in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Disney’s stock to fluctuations in guest traffic at U.S. parks and resorts. .
Our complete analysis for Number of Guests at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts is here.
2. Per Capita Guest Spend at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts
The average of forecasts for Per Capita Guest Spend at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts created by Trefis members are in line with our estimates. The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from $107 in 2010 to $113 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, Disney’s per capita guest spend increased from $88 in 2004 to $104 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Disney’s stock to Per Capita Guest Spend at Disney’s US Parks & Resorts.
