Mobile Phone Biz a Small Portion of Dell’s Stock

August 6th, 2010 by Trefis Team
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Trefis
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Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) competes with Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), and Motorola (NYSE:MOT) in mobile phone market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $17 for Dell’s stock, about 33% above the current market price of around $13.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Dell’s (NASDAQ:DELL) stock over the last week: (1) Dell Mobile Phone Pricing and (2) Dell Mobile Market Share. The members’ forecasts suggest that Dell Mobile Phone Pricing as well as Dell Mobile Market Share will trend in line with the Trefis forecast.

We estimate that Mobile Phones account for around 3% of the $17 Trefis price estimate for Dell’s stock. Hence the stock is not greatly impacted by (1) Dell Mobile Phone Pricing and (2) Dell Mobile Market Share. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

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1. Dell Mobile Phone Pricing

Dell made its entry into the smartphone market in 2010. The average of forecasts for Dell Desktops Pricing created by Trefis members are in line with our estimates. The baseline Trefis estimate projects a decrease from $450 in 2010 to around $281 by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dell’s stock to Dell Mobile Phone Pricing.

Our complete analysis for Dell’s Mobile Phone Pricing is here.

2. Dell Mobile Market Share

The average of forecasts for Dell Mobile Market Share created by Trefis members are in line with our estimates. The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.5% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dell’s stock to Dell Mobile Market Share.

Our complete analysis for Dell’s stock is here.