About 18% of the $13.88 Trefis price estimate for Dell’s (NASDAQ:DELL) stock is based on the value of Dell’s notebook and netbook business. Dell’s market share in the notebook market has declined from about 18% in 2005 to less than 13% in 2009 as a result of intense competition from HP, Toshiba and Acer. Meanwhile, HP’s market share has increased from slightly less than 18% in 2005 to nearly 21% in 2009.
We estimate that Dell’s notebook market share will continue to decline but at a much slower rate, reaching about 12% by the end of our forecast period.
You can modify our forecast above to see how the Trefis price estimate for Dell’s stock would be impacted in two different scenarios: (1) Dell’s notebook share returns to historical levels of about 18% (2) Dell’s notebook share continues to decline at a rapid rate.
For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for Dell.
