Daimler AG’s (ETR:DAI) sells vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz, Smart and Maybach brands, and competes with Ford (NYSE:F), Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM), and Honda Motor Company (NYSE:HMC). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $63 for Daimler AG’s stock, about 17% above the current market price of $54.
As mentioned in another article, we recently updated our Daimler model after the company reported strong Q2 2010 results. Our forecast for Mercedes sales globally has been revised upward and, interestingly, is now in line with the average forecast that Trefis members had created earlier in the week (before our update).
Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans constitute around 44% of the $63 Trefis price estimate for Daimler’s stock. Given the significance of Mercedes-Benz vehicles to its business, Daimler AG’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Total Mercedes Benz Vehicles Sold Globally and (2) Mercedes Benz Gross Margin. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. Total Mercedes-Benz Vehicles Sold Globally
The average of forecasts for Total Mercedes Benz Vehicles Sold Globally created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 1.3 million in 2010 to around 2.1 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, consistent with the revised baseline Trefis estimate. Total Mercedes Benz Vehicles Sold Globally have been around 1.3 million historically, dipping to slightly below 1.1 million in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Daimler AG’s stock to Total Mercedes Benz Vehicles Sold Globally.
Our complete analysis for Total Mercedes Benz Vehicles Sold Globally is here.
The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from 26% in 2010 to 27% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, Mercedes Benz Gross Margin has increased from 23.4% in 2005 to 25.5% in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Daimler AG’s stock to Mercedes Benz Gross Margin.
