Why We’re Raising Our Price Estimate For Cliffs To $5

-3.89%
Downside
20.81
Market
20.00
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CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs

We are raising our price estimate for Cliffs Natural Resources to $4.96, which is driven by an improved demand outlook for the company’s U.S. Iron Ore division, which accounts for around three-quarters of the company’s revenue and most of its valuation. Cliffs announced a 3% upward revision to its shipment guidance for the U.S. Iron Ore division for 2016. This was driven by the signing of new supply agreements with ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel Canada which has prompted the company to announce the restart of its United Taconite mining operations in Minnesota two months ahead of schedule in August. The signing of new supply agreements is also indicative of firming demand for steel in the U.S., driven by steady economic growth. As per World Steel Association forecasts, steel demand in the U.S. is set to grow at 3.2% and 2.7% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, following on from a contraction in demand in 2015. The improved outlook for steel in the U.S. also translates into an improved outlook for iron ore, the chief steelmaking raw material. We have accordingly modified our forecasts for the U.S. Iron Ore division, resulting in the revision in our price estimate.

 

CLF Change in Price Estimate

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Have more questions about Cliffs Natural Resources? See the links below.

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Cliffs Natural Resources

 

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