Higher Oral Care market share could boost Colgate Palmolive’s (NYSE:CL) stock by around 9%. Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Colgate Palmolive’s Global Market Share of Oral Care and their projections suggest that the driver will trend above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Colgate Palmolive competes with Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Unilever (NYSE:UL) in the oral care market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $85 for Colgate-Palmolive’s stock, about 13% above the current market price of $75.
Around 44% of Colgate’s stock value can be attributed to its Oral Care business making the stock quite sensitive to CL’s Global Market Share of Oral Care.
1. CL’s Global Market Share of Oral Care
The average of Trefis member forecasts for CL’s Global Market Share of Oral Care indicate an increase from around 42% in 2010 to around 45% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 34% in 2010 to around 38% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 9% to the Trefis price estimate for Colgate-Palmolive’s stock. In the past, CL’s Global Market Share of Oral Care has increased from 26% in 2005 to 33.5% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Colgate-Palmolive’s stock to CL’s Global Market Share of Oral Care.
Our complete analysis for Colgate-Palmolive’s stock is here.
