Epclusa Could Pose Significant Risk For Bristol-Myer’s Daklinza
Gillead Sciences got FDA approval for its flagship drug Epclusa on June 28, 2016. Though Epclusa can be used treat Hepatitis C (HCV) of all Genotypes, it is priced to target HCV of Genotypes 2 and 3. We believe it could pose high risk for Bristol- Myers Daklinza.
Epclusa Is Priced To Target HCV Patients With Genotypes 2 And 3
- Hepatitis C (HCV) is categorised into 6 genotypes. Genotype 1 is the most common affecting approximately 75% million HCV patients in the U.S., followed by Genotype 3 which affects approximately 20% Of HCV patients.
- Epclusa won’t affect the sales of Genotype 1 drugs as it is more expensive than other alternatives such as Zepatier.
- Genotype 2 and 3 is where Eplusa would have maximum impact as Genotype 3 patients are generally prescribed a combination therapy including Sovaldi and Bristol Myer’s (BMY) Daklinza
- Combination therapies for Genotype 3 HCVcost approximately $200,000
- Epclusa is priced at $74,600 to target genotype 2 and genotype 3.
- Sales of genotype 1 drugs (Zepatier, Hanovi) are relatively safe, but Daklinza of Bristol-Myers Squibb faces significant risk as it focuses on Genotype 3.
What’s The Risk For Bristol-Myers Squibb?
- BMY’s Daklinza’s sales in 2015 were $253 million and are expected to be $2.1 billion in 2016
- Long term forecast, Sales could reach $3.2 billion by 2020
- The estimated revenue contribution in 2016 is 10% of the total
- If Daklinza loses half its sales by 2020, it would imply 10% downside to our estimate
Have more questions about Bristol-Myers Squibb? See the links below.
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