What Is The One ‘Key Takeaway’ Of Bristol-Myers Squibb’s First Quarter Earnings?

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Bristol Myers Squibb

Our Key Takeaway From Q1 2016 Earnings:

‘Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Stock May Attract More Investors’

Positive Observations That Support The Above Belief:

  • Shares up ~ 3% in a single day, which has been rare for a big pharma firm in recent quarters
  • Pharma sales growth ~ 8.6%, higher than that for competitors such as J&J (5.9%) & Roche (5%)
  • Strong immuno-oncology growth with Opdivo sales jumping from $40 million to $704 million
  • Eliquis will drive growth at least in the near to mid term
  • Currency impact easing, expected to be -1% for full year compared to -7% in 2015
Relevant Articles
  1. Should You Pick Bristol Myers Squibb Stock After A 30% Fall Last Year And Q4 Beat?
  2. Is Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Undervalued At $50?
  3. Will Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Rebound To Its Pre-Inflation Shock Level of $80?
  4. Which Stock Is A Better Healthcare Pick – Bristol Myers Squibb Or HCA?
  5. Will Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Rise Post Q1?
  6. Is Bristol Myers Squibb Stock A Better Pick Over Its Industry Peer?

Long Term Drivers Worth Considering:

A) Opdivo

  • Peak sales potential of $6-$7 billion
  • Broad range of patients, approved for melanoma, lung cancer & kidney cancer
  • Breakthrough designation from FDA for hodgkin lymphoma & head and neck cancer
  • Combination therapy with Yervoy gaining ground
  • Patent protected until 2026-2027

B) Empliciti

  • Peak sales potential of >$4 billion
  • Approved for multiple myeloma
  • Patent protected until 2026

C) Eliquis

  • Peak sales potential of $5 billion, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s share ~ 50%
  • Top position as novel anticoagulant in the U.S. & 12 international markets
  • Partnership with Pfizer gives strong global reach and marketing

A Note Of Caution:

  • Hepatitis drugs could face competition in the U.S. from new branded launches
  • Hepatitis C franchise is new, and growing fast, which means competition catching up this soon is ‘bad news’
  • Franchise’s revenues grew from $256 million in 2014 to $1.6 billion in 2015
  • Therefore, this puts Bristol-Myers Squibb’s future growth at slight risk

We are in the process of updating Bristol-Myers Squibb’s price estimate in the light of recent earnings, and will have an update ready soon.

Have more questions about Bristol-Myers Squibb? See the links below.

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Bristol-Myers Squibb

 

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