A&F and Hollister Store Counts Important for ANF’s Stock
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) is a specialty apparel retailer that mainly operates under the Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister brands. It competes with Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO), Gap (NYSE:GPS), J.Crew Group (NYSE:JCG) and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $53 for Abercrombie & Fitch Co.’s stock, about 38% above the current market price of around $39.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock over the last week: (1) Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores and (2) Number of Hollister Stores. The members’ forecasts suggest that Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores and Number of Hollister Stores will trend in line with the Trefis forecast. These projections have no significant impact on ANF stock.
We estimate that Abercrombie & Fitch Stores constitute around 37% of the $53 Trefis price estimate for ANF’s stock, while Hollister Stores account for only 29%. Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores and (2) Number of Hollister Stores. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
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1. Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores
The average of forecasts for Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from 351 in 2010 to around 408 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 353 in 2010 to about 413 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply little downside to the Trefis price estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock. In the past, Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores has decreased from 357 in 2004 to 346 in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock to Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores.
Our complete analysis for Number of Abercrombie & Fitch Stores is here.
The average of forecasts for Number of Hollister Stores created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around 548 in 2010 to about 646 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 546 in 2010 to 640 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock. In the past, Number of Hollister Stores has increased from 256 in 2004 to 525 in 2009.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Abercrombie & Fitch Co.’s stock to Number of Hollister Stores.
Our complete analysis for Abercrombie & Fitch Co.’s stock is here.