ANF Has Upside Potential With Hollister’s Expansion Abroad

by Trefis Team
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Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
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Quick Take

  • Abercrombie & Fitch plans to open Hollister brand stores in the U.A.E., Australia and Japan.
  • Per capita spending on apparel in the U.A.E. is the highest in the emerging world and the apparel market there is growing at a healthy rate.
  • Japan is one of the biggest apparel markets with annual apparel sales of over $110 billion and offers good potential for value-for-money products.
  • As Australia’s apparel market is still reeling under the impact of the economic crisis, its consumers are increasingly becoming value conscious.
  • There can be upside of 5%-10% if Abercrombie expands successfully in these new markets as well as China.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) is moving to new international frontiers to expand its business. The retailer will enter the U.A.E, Australia and Japan with its value focused Hollister brand. [1] In the U.A.E, per capita spending on apparel is the highest in the developing world, which could be a major incentive behind the company’s foray in this market. Japan and Australia provide good potential for value-focused products and we expect Hollister to perform well here. In the long term, if the retailer continues its expansion in these markets along with China, there can be moderate upside to our price estimate.

See our complete analysis for Abercrombie & Fitch

What Makes Hollister A Viable Expansion Option?

Compared to its premium brand ANF, Abercrombie offers Hollister products at relatively lower price points. This brand has an elaborate pseudo history based on the adventures of John M. Hollister, which gives it a unique meaning that appeals to many customers. Moreover, Hollister stores are smaller in size compared to ANF stores and thus their capital expenditures are lower. Together, these aspects make Hollister a viable option for international expansion.

What Do These Markets Offer?

United Arab Emirates: Abercrombie will open its first Hollister store in Dubai, which has become a hub for foreign retailers. [1] A report by consulting group AT Kearney stated that the U.A.E has the highest number of international retailers. [2] This can be attributed to the local population’s high disposable income and fashion consciousness. The same report suggested that the region’s annual per capita spending on apparel sales ($785 in 2010) is the highest among all the developing markets. [3] Although the country’s total apparel market is still small ($5.8 billion), it has grown at a healthy compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% during the last four years. [4] Abercrombie’s success here will position it well in the Middle East, which currently houses three of the five fastest growing apparel markets in the developing world. [2]

Japan: Although Japan’s apparel market stands large at about $110 billion, its growth has suffered due to a decline in consumer spending and prolonged economic weakness. [5] However, the situation is getting better with the Japanese government’s Cool Biz campaign and the consumer shift to value-focused products. [6] The government urged the companies to limit air conditioning and set warmer room temperatures, which resulted in increased demand for casual clothing suited for such environment. [7] Japanese buyers have started to prefer long-lasting value-focused products. This is good news for Abercrombie as its Hollister brand offers clothing at lower prices compared to ANF. We believe that the retailer can establish a strong brand identity in the region.

Australia: Australia’s apparel market is relatively small and has been reeling under the impact of global financial crisis. The market has been shrinking for the past few years, amounting to an estimated $12 billion in 2012. This decline could continue in 2013 as well. [8] Also, the discretionary spending in the region has reduced and the online retail market is still at a nascent stage. [9] Australian consumers have become extremely conscious about their spending and are buying low- and medium-priced products. Although this might help Hollister’s sales, we expect the growth to remain slow.

The Significance Of This International Expansion

Abercrombie currently operates about 107 Hollister stores in international markets with most of them situated in Europe. [10] Over the last two years, the retailer has opened 69 Hollister stores internationally.

According to our current estimates, Hollister’s store count could increase by 70 over the next five to six years. However, with the company’s recent decision to enter new markets, the expansion pace could pick up. If we assume that the retailer will open about 20 Hollister stores annually for next several years with international markets operating at higher productivity compared to the U.S. (as is the case with Gap), there could be 5%-10% upside to our price estimate.

Our price estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch Stands at $51, implying a premium of about 5% to the market price.

Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

Notes:
  1. Abercrombie & Fitch shares rise on expansion plans, Bloomberg Businessweek, April 3 2013 [] []
  2. UAE has highest fashion spending in developing world, Arabian Business, June 11 2011 [] []
  3. UAE has highest apparel spending per capita in the world, Emirate 24 7, June 8 2011 []
  4. Apparel Retail in United Arab Emirates, Market Research, Feb 27 2013 []
  5. Overview of the retail apparel market, United Arrows []
  6. Apparel In Japan, Euro Monitor, June 2012 []
  7. Japan ‘Super Cool Biz’ Campaign Urges Businessmen To Shed Suits, Save Energy, Huffington Post, Jan 8 2011 []
  8. Clothing Retail in Australia: Market Research Report, IBIS World, Nov 2012 []
  9. Apparel in Australia, Euromonitor, April 2012 []
  10. Abercrombie & Fitch’s SEC filings []
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  • commented 11 months ago
  • tags: GES ANF GPS
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  • commented 11 months ago
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  • commented 1 years ago
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  • commented 1 years ago
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  • commented 1 years ago
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  • commented 1 years ago
  • tags: GES ANF GPS
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  • commented 1 years ago
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  • .The carrying rule of Hollister co. hco
    hollister co. is the same as other a&F brand. They have a set of sporting guidance to strictly follow. The employee should wear most fashionable Hollister clothes. Namely, they should follow their rele of carrying clothes with "beach ‘s atmosphere"style.
    The female employee was inquired to makeup minimally, what's more,they should makeup the nature tones hardly jewelry. The girl only permit wearing a pair of ring .it will be the stone or simple ring.the Bracelets and necklaces are prohibit.
    Everyone should wear The color of the season ,it is usually navy blue,grey,white and other colors.
    Each employee can get the 50% discount when the next season is coming,it was called AAA.
    The black clothes is prohibit all the year around. women employees should wear dark and close-fitting jeans. It is better to wear the ho;;ister jeans.if not, any sign of competitor should be moved. What's more, the man should wear dark and slim jeans.they should keep a clean professional hair style and a clean shaven face. all the dress up should be always clean and professionaland By the approval of the daily rule. most employees wear Hollister clothes.

    California Hollister pursue" Self walk marketing"that is to say, just wear a Hollister clothing and go to street,it is Direct advertising effect.the wildly know " Flight seagulls mark" repeatly use the abbreviation of HCO,which prove the successful marketing.
    The shopping bag marked HCO produce precisely the same effect. Therefore, the company is not rely on traditional media ‘s marketing communication but the product itself appearance and feature.
    The advertisement of HCO looks colour fading.it make people think about the picture in grey A&F brand selling . the grey clor picture provides a sport and Retro feeling for hollister dublin..
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  • commented 1 years ago
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  • I like Hollister clothing!! BUT... it is strategy to tiny. once i see other girls put on Hollister an my friends put on it they request me, why dont you dress in hollister? An, i experience embaressed... i say that i dont like their garments, ... but... i actually do, but i just cant healthy into your clothing. thats the reality. even, a bigger dimension in a typical juinors section suits me adequately, but i put on an XL, or perhaps a significant determined by how i need the healthy. An it is actually erroneous that they dont use a additionally measurement line of clothing and it's not at all like they wouldnt come up with a TON! of cash with it, for the reason that i do know which i am not the only female which includes these emotions about seeking to me in fashion an keep up with everything you truly wish to purchase and im NOT complaning about charges but I am complaniing about thhe measurements they have. it is very wrong they do this this sorta matter is what triggers taking in diseases and problums expecally in teen women. i hope that not a soul feels bad they cant healthy into Hollister Co. cothing. i personlly no the sensation once your mother asks is that they have greater dimensions like Aeropostale does. that is why i really like Aeropostele!! they can be in design and have measurements that all girls could possibly be? i like who i'm, and that i am delighted with who i am. but when my mother questioned do u carry the sizes that aeropostale carrys like an additional big? they are saying NO! we only carry as many as a big sorry. An its like, i really dont need to have your apollagy. what i actually want is in your retailer to hold a bigger dimension so i can in good shape in to the clothing that my pals put on. i'm not a follower but my type IS my enthusiasm.I normally get it on hollister dublin on the internet shop. Pretty good.
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  • commented 1 years ago
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