Trefis member expectations for Kindle sales are higher than the Trefis forecast. We estimate that Kindle hardware accounts for only around 1% of Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock price. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $107 for Amazon’s stock, about 16% below the current market price of $127.
Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Kindle Units Sold, and their projections suggest slightly higher Kindle unit sales compared to the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis. Amazon’s Kindle competes e-with Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPad, Barnes & Noble’s (NYSE:BKS) Nook, and Sony’s (NYSE:SNE) e-reader.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Kindle Units Sold indicate an increase from 2.6 million in 2010 to 10.8 million by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 2 million in 2010 to 9.8 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small upside to the Trefis price estimate for Amazon’s stock. In the past, Kindle Units Sold has increased from 0.2 million in 2008 to 1 million in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Amazon’s stock to Kindle Units Sold.
