Trefis members expect slow and steady growth for AMD’s (NYSE:AMD) server processor business, which we estimate accounts for 44% of AMD’s stock. AMD mainly competes with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) in the server processor market.
Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for AMD’s two key drivers : (1) AMD Server Processor Market Share and (2) AMD Server Processor Pricing. The member forecasts suggest that both drivers will trend roughly in-line with estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $10 for AMD’s stock, about 58% above the current market price of around $6.
AMD’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) AMD Server Processor Market Share and (2) AMD Server Processor Pricing. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
1. AMD Server Processor Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for AMD Server Processor Market Share indicate an increase from 29.5% in 2010 to 36% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 31% in 2010 to 36% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, AMD Server Processor Market Share has increased from 5% in 2003 to around 30% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AMD’s stock to AMD Server Processor Market Share.
Our complete analysis for AMD Server Processor Market Share is here.
2. AMD Server Processor Pricing
The average of Trefis member forecasts for AMD Server Processor Pricing indicate an increase from $270.50 in 2010 to $273 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $269 in 2010 to $274.50 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for AMD’s stock. In the past, AMD Server Processor Pricing has decreased from $519 in 2003 to $261 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AMD’s stock to AMD Server Processor Pricing.
