Adobe’s (NASDAQ:ADBE) Acrobat offers a suite of tools like Buzzword, Acrobat Reader and Acrobat Writer for users to collaborate and share documents. It mainly competes with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) productivity software in this segment. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $38 for Adobe’s stock, about 30% above the current market price of around $29.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Adobe’s stock over the last week: (1) Acrobat Software Pricing and (2) Acrobat Gross Profit Margin. The members’ forecasts suggest that Acrobat Software Pricing and Margin will trend slightly below the Trefis estimate. These projections suggest a combined downside of around 1% for Adobe’s stock.
We estimate that Acrobat Suite accounts for around 14% of the $38 Trefis price estimate for Adobe’s stock. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers: (1) Acrobat Software Pricing and (2) Acrobat Gross Profit Margin.
The average of forecasts for Acrobat Software Pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around $131 in 2010 to around $161 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $134 in 2010 to $170 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Adobe’s stock. In the past, Acrobat Software Pricing has increased from around $119 in 2005 to around $129 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Adobe’s stock to Acrobat Software Pricing.
Our complete analysis for Acrobat Software Pricing is here.
2. Acrobat Gross Profit Margin
The average of forecasts for Acrobat Gross Profit Margin created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from around 93% in 2010 to 90% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 94% in 2010 to around 91% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small downside to the Trefis price estimate for Adobe’s stock. In the past, Acrobat Gross Profit Margin has increased from around 94% in 2005 to 95% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Adobe’s stock to Acrobat Gross Profit Margin.
