Last week gold price started off strong but soon changed direction, declined and finished the week only slightly above its initial starting price for the week. Silver has done even worst and declined on a weekly scale. The renewed fears and concerns in Europe and the possible slowdown in the U.S labor market may have been among the factors pulling gold and silver prices up during last week. This sentiment may continue this week as there are several U.S related reports including housing starts, Philly Fed and existing home sales. If these reports will be positive or better yet very positive then I speculate bullion prices will decline; alternatively if ECB President will talk of another LTRO or SMP, and if Germany will continue to show growth (on Tuesday German ZEW economic sentiment report and on Friday German Business Climate Survey) then the Euro may rally which will bring gold and silver prices up again. So which of these events will prevail in affecting bullion? I suspect the effect of the U.S. reports will determine the direction of the market which means bullion might trade down during the upcoming week.
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Here is a short overview for the upcoming week of April 16th to 20th; I use charts and a fundamental analysis to examine how the upcoming events and financial publications may affect bullion and consequently also SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). During last week GLD slightly rose by 1.6% (W-o-W). But as I will explain herein I suspect this rally may change direction during the upcoming week.
The video link above provides a broad outlook for the main news, public speeches and events that may affect bullion during the week of April 16th to 20th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and news items that will come out during the upcoming week. Some of these reports and events include: U.S. retails sales monthly report, U.S housing starts, Canada’s rate decision, ECB President speech, MPC meeting, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, U.S existing home sales monthly update and U.S. jobless claims weekly update (just to name a few).
In conclusion, I speculate we might see a similar slow paced movement for gold and silver; if U.S reports will show growth then they may adversely affect gold and silver during the week. Alternatively, if the Euro and other “risk currencies” will trade up (e.g. another LTRO by ECB might help rally Euro) then these events may curb the decline in bullion.
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