Trefis Week in Review
The Week in Review
Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.
Insights from the Week
- China In Focus As Apple Reports Q2 Results
- Down 10% This Year, Will Gen AI Tools Help Apple Stock Recover?
- Down 5% Over The Last Month, Will Strong iPhone Sales Help Apple Offset Mac Headwinds In Q1?
- After Over A 40% Rally In 2023, Will Antitrust And iPhone Issues Hurt Apple Stock?
- Up 45% Since The Beginning Of 2023, Where Is Apple Stock Headed?
- Up 34% This Year, Will Apple Stock Rally Further Following Q4 Results?
Technology Media & Telecom
While this should increase Amazon’s share of online merchandise sales, the tablet can also push more Kindle Fire users to subscribe for the Amazon Prime service …
- While Microsoft Earns Extra Dough From Android, Google is Slugging it Out with Oracle on September 30
Oracle initially demanded up to $6.1 billion from Google in damages and royalties, but has since decreased its demands to around $1.16 billion following a second round of talks …
While the drop in Google’s stock price last week may not be directly related to the security gap revelation, growing concerns about Android’s security can’t be helping Google’s long-term stock value …
Yahoo wants to reassure its investors and employees that it’s still very much up and running with the company recently unveiling some new features for its Flickr photo service and its recent Facebook alliance …
Flash, which is ubiquitous on computers worldwide, has been relegated to the sidelines when it comes to smartphones and tablets …
- Non-iPad Tablets Have Most to Lose from Kindle Fire on September 30
Although we believe that Apple will be safe from the price wars happening in the tablet world, non-iPad players like RIM and Motorola and Android based tablets are the biggest risk …
- Amazon’s Kindle Fire is Cheap But No iPad Killer on September 29
Kindle Fire lacks certain features present in iPad such as forward- and rear-facing high-resolution cameras, microphone and a connection to a 3G wireless network …
While we realize that Netlix has upset many of its customers, we still believe that the financial impact to Netflix will be manageable and that the market is underestimating the growth ahead …
We don’t expect Windows Phone to become one of Microsoft’s top revenue generators anytime soon, but it could easily become one of Microsoft’s many billion dollar businesses …
Symantec is now facing new competition from Microsoft’s Windows 8 that boasts of providing comprehensive security features and poses a challenge to the consumer antivirus market as a whole …
The intensely competitive landscape is leaving customers confused on who offers what and what’s the best way to get access to the shows and movies you want without setting up 10 online accounts …
Microsoft is now reportedly going after Motorola for a licensing fee on its smartphone sales and it looks increasingly like Google is losing the patent war …
The most interesting aspect is that this gap has increased over the last 3 months with 56% of smartphone users picking Android phone over just 28% for Apple …
- Will the American Jobs Act Boost LinkedIn’s Growth? on September 29
It would not be a surprise if LinkedIn gets further endorsement from large and small businesses presenting a clear upside to its user base which is already 120-million strong …
It offers most of the features of the professional version but with simpler options and is priced much lower than the professional version at about $100 for Photoshop Elements 10 …
- Google Groans as Microsoft Strikes Samsung Licensing Deal on September 29
Google is unhappy that Samsung has to shell out licensing fees to Microsoft that in turn could limit Android’s own reach and line the pockets of a major competitor …
- iPhone 5 Features & Design Need to Wow Users for Large Impact on September 28
We believe that the new iPhone could have faster A5 processor, improved camera, improved graphics performance, faster network technology and potentially be thinner and lighter …
- Given Netflix’s Upside, Buyout Talk is Nonsense on September 28
The company is in a high growth stage, despite hitting some road bumps in Q3 2011 where it expects some subscriber losses due to service and cost restructuring …
- Dish Bids For Hulu: What Are They Up To? on September 28
Dish has Blockbuster and with Hulu it could complement its movie content with quality TV shows, thus creating a strong rival to the likes of Netflix …
If Microsoft moves quickly with the Windows 8 launch, it stands to capture a significant share of the still nascent tablet market which is growing at a very fast pace.
- Google’s Cloud Storage ‘GDrive’ Could be Rolled Out Soon on September 28
The good news for users is that GDrive is expected to come out with a native sync software to synchronize their files on desktop and mobile …
Icahn is an influential personality and did a similar thing with Motorola by pushing for a board seat in the company, pressuring the company to split into two …
- Google+ Reaches 50 Million Users, 8th Most Visited Social Site on September 27
If Google+ adds 1 million users a day for a year, which would be astronomical growth even for Google, they still wouldn’t be halfway to Facebook’s numbers …
NYT has built a strong reputation of providing quality journalism and content, which should keep user stickiness high and help retain the 220,000+ digital subscribers it has acquired till July …
- Microsoft Follows Salesforce in Making CRM More Social on September 27
Microsoft announced that it has added new social features to Dynamics CRM, which should improve collaboration among sales employees and customers …
- Comcast Should Take a Second Look at Xbox Collaboration on September 27
The collaboration could improve technology sharing like more targeted advertising, sophisticated programming options and potentially the use of Microsoft technology such as its Kinect …
Given our estimates of per capita guest spend of little over $100 per year, Disney will need to attract additional 3.5 million customers each year …
The solution is ideal for small companies looking for online transaction processing, analytic applications and data warehousing solutions and will be priced much lower than Exadata …
- Macro Headwinds Could Reduce iPad Growth Expectations on September 27
We are taking a more conservative stance than most of the other brokerage firms on iPad estimates as the global economy limps along …
IBM Smarter Commerce initiative is focused on helping companies more effectively market, sell and secure greater customer loyalty in the era of social networking, mobile computing and online buying …
- Can Spotify and Facebook Give iTunes a Run for its Money? on September 27
Although the direct impact to Apple from Facebook’s new music service is minimal as iTunes accounts for only about 2% of our price estimate for Apple stock, the indirect impact could be much larger …
- 3 Key Trends Impacting China Mobile’s $58 Value on September 27
Despite China Mobile being the largest telecom service provider in the world, it still has high growth potential owing to the increasing number of people using mobile phones …
This acquisition will augment Oracle’s existing application software as it can provide a simplified hardware and software offering that can deliver service availability to its telecom clients …
- Netflix’s Volatility Indicates the Rising Fear of Slowing Growth on September 26
In order to justify the current market price, Netflix’s domestic subscriber base will need to grow by only about 8 million over the course of next 7 years …
This looks like a desperate move by Yahoo considering that Facebook is its biggest competitor in the online display advertising market …
- Solid September Car Sales Support Sirius’ Outlook on September 26
It seems that at this point there is no sufficient evidence to get alarmed about Sirius XM’s ability to gain subscribers as it tries to increase its penetration in sold vehicles …
- Can Windows 8 Boost Sales of Windows Phone 7? on September 26
Microsoft is quite optimistic that the Windows 8, with its radically different look and feel and a touch-centric user interface, will boost Windows phone 7 sales …
The U.S. economy is struggling, which could impact car sales thereby affecting Pandora’s growth. If the situation continues, our current estimates may turn out to be optimistic …
- A Dish-Clearwire Deal Makes Sense for All Parties on September 26
If Dish were to acquire Sprint or Clearwire, we believe that unlike the AT&T/T-Mobile deal, this transaction would not create regulatory issues …
- China Mobile New Coverage: $58 Trefis Price Estimate on September 26
The telecom industry in China is largely regulated by the central government, and the company is facing increasing competition from the next two largest companies China Unicom and China Telecom …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive
Kongregate Arcade 2.0 enjoys a high 4.6 rating on Android Market, however how much the company will benefit from its latest mobile app is a thing to watch out till GameStop’s next quarterly results …
- Aeropostale Will Recover as a Serious Competitor in Apparel on September 30
As cotton prices soared to $2.30 in March 2011, many companies chose to pass on the costs to the consumer in the face of such economic difficulties …
- Aeropostale Rolls Out Global Shipping to Improve Sales & Margins on September 29
The move will allow international consumers in more than 90 countries to purchase directly from Aeropostale.com in their local currency …
Despite AEO’s overall poor performance throughout the last few months, there’s one thing that we’ve seen consistently increase is revenue from Internet & catalog orders …
Retailers are attracting consumers through $100 coupon and $100 rebate, effectively slashing the price of the 16 GB Wi-fi PlayBook version from $499 to $299 …
Rite Aid has been aggressively focusing on improving its bottom line and achieved a third successive quarter of positive same store sales growth …
- Starbucks’ Food Business Could be the Next Big Growth Driver on September 28
According to a statement by Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz, Starbucks will introduce “new products and complete categories” over the next 12 to 18 months and set up a global food business …
- Battle of Retail: Comparing Aeropostale vs. Abercombie on Key Metrics for the First Half on September 28
While Aeropostale experienced a massive decline in margins from near 38% in 2010 to 27% in 2011, Abercombie has managed to slightly increase its margins this year …
- Daimler Investing Big in China Despite Slowing Auto Sales on September 28
Within China, even though Mercedes-Benz had record sales in August 2011, it grew by only 3.2 percent yoy in contrast to 113 percent yoy sales growth in August 2010 …
- GM Flirts with BMW for Collaboration in Fuel Efficiency Push on September 27
While GM has an advantage in fuel cell technology and electric vehicle technology that is used in GM’s Opel Ampera electric vehicle, BMW has an advantage in gasoline and diesel engines technology …
- Gap’s Int’l Expansion Efforts Show Promise on September 27
As the demand for retail consumption is growing quickly in Russia, the move to introduce Banana Republic is a smart decision by Gap’s management …
- Higher Food Price Takes a Bite from Chipotle’s Growth on September 27
Chipotle was absorbing rising food costs for the past couple of years but is now raising its menu prices as rising food costs of meat, vegetables and dairy products have started affecting its profit margins …
Korea produces and markets all major Kimberly-Clark products and provides an ideal location for product innovation with quick feedback from the demanding Korean consumers …
- The Internet is the New Battlefield for Teen Apparel Retailers on September 26
Promoting the online segment has been at the core of the business strategy for most retail players including Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services
This move is aimed at expanding the bank’s insurance services offering to help the bank compete effectively with other global financial institutions …
- Travelers New Coverage Launch: $56 Trefis Price Estimate on September 30
The majority of Travelers’ investment portfolio is composed of investment grade bonds, both corporate and government, which are sensitive to changes in interest rates …
- Fortress May Pick Up BofA’s Correspondent Mortgage Unit on September 29
The bank’s decision to exit the correspondent mortgage lending division is clearly an attempt to rein in mortgage-related losses and re-instill investor faith in the bank’s mortgage business …
- RBS & Credit Suisse Mortgage Practices Under SEC Scrutiny on September 29
As U.S. regulators continue to crack the whip on financial institutions on a variety of issues, we expect more names to be added to this list of banks being investigated by the SEC …
- Citi’s Consumer Banking Margins Get Squeezed as Economy Slows on September 28
Citigroup recently announced that it’ll cut back on hiring across divisions worldwide due to the economic slowdown which is affecting its revenues and profits …
- Credit Suisse Settles with German Authorities to Clear Overhang on September 26
The settlement included a one-time lump sum payment and will be followed up with all Swiss banks annually deducting taxes for all German citizens holding Swiss bank accounts …
- UBS CEO Exits Amid Rouge Trading Aftershocks, Others May Follow on September 26
In response to the rogue trading scandal, Grübel took responsibility for the bank’s losses and decided to quit in an effort to stem the wave of criticism facing the bank’s risk controls and policies …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources
- Exxon Expands Fracking Operations in Europe on September 30
The company recently inked a pact with Ukrainian state oil & gas firm Naftogaz to explore and develop Ukraine’s shale gas reserves …
- Lowering Estimates On First Solar, But Large Upside Remains on September 29
The recent turmoil in the solar industry has seen solar stocks plummet over the past few months as PV module manufacturers cut down sales estimates due to falling demand from European markets …
In a recent snapshot, the company valued its assets in Brazil between $3and $5 billion based on $90 /bbl and $4.5 /Mcf price estimates for oil and natural gas, respectively …
The deal underlines the growing interest of oil & gas firms in Australia’s natural gas reserves that are well positioned to supply to expanding markets in Asia …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Basic Materials
- Rio Tinto & Vale See Ample Demand from Chinese Growth on September 30
Chinese demand for iron ore is holding up well despite global market conditions as suppliers are bullish on Chinese consumption in the near term …
Due to market conditions we have moderated our near-term forecasts for pricing and shipment numbers across all divisions, but we still believe that the company has significant long-term growth potential …
We are now forecasting a moderate reduction in shipment numbers across all divisions going forward, the fundamentals look positive and the long term growth potential remains robust …
Alcoa has plans to restructure its midstream flat rolled products division from the current regional structure to a market/product based structure in order to increase its focus on emerging markets …
(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation
We believe that Caterpillar’s long-terms prospects are strong as it’s in a position to satisfy the growing demand from emerging economies by leveraging its acquisitions …
- The Drag on Corning from JV Samsung Corning’s Slowing Demand on September 28
Additionally, Corning reported that Samsung Corning has been losing some market share in Korea this quarter, which will further hurt volumes at the joint-venture …
Corning announced that it expects its display technologies division to hit a rough patch in the second half this year due to concerns about a drop in customer demand for LCDs …
Amid heightened uncertainty around the European debt crisis and sluggish U.S. growth, we believe we could see a meaningful slowing in Caterpillar’s business in the second half of the year …
The app intends to leverage the benefits of “social travel”, which typically entails sharing travel experiences and information with friends through social networking sites …