IDC recently came out with a smartphone market forecast report, in which it indicated that Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) share in the global smartphone market could decline from 18.2% in 2011 to 16.9% in 2015. [1] This finding is surprising since continuous innovation at Apple makes it a tough competitor to beat in the smartphone market. The report also suggests that Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android and Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows Phone 7 operating system (after Nokia (NYSE:NOK) transitions to replace Symbian with Windows Phone 7) will gain share while Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) BlackBerry OS will lose share in the smartphone OS market.
Our $430 price estimate for Apple stock is about 30% above market price and the iPhone accounts for more than 50% of our $430 price estimate for Apple stock.
Impact on Apple’s stock value
IDC expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 18% through 2011 to 2015 compared to an overall smartphone market growth of 20% during the same period. [1] Trefis expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 24% during the same period. In terms of market share, we expect Apple to continue to gain share from around 5% in 2011 to 10% of total market share in 2015 of the mobile phone market.
See our complete analysis for Apple
Notes:- Worldwide Smartphone Market Expected to Grow 55% in 2011 and Approach Shipments of One Billion in 2015, IDC press release, June 9th 2011 [↩] [↩]
