Motorola introduced a 3G Android-based phone this week called the Cliq. Android is Google’s open source mobile phone operating system (OS) designed to provide an alternative to Windows Mobile OS, BlackBerry’s OS and other proprietary mobile phone operating systems. Motorola’s Cliq phone offers iPhone-like features and includes Motorola’s new Motoblur software designed to integrate user content from such sources as Facebook, MySpace, Twitter and Gmail.
Motorola’s mobile phone business constitutes only 14% of the $7.11 per share Trefis price estimate for the stock. The company’s mobile phone market share has declined from a peak of 22% in 2006, when the Motorola RAZR phone dominated the market, to about 5% today. We believe that the company’s share will continue to decline to approximately 3% by the end of the forecast period due to the on-going shift to smarpthones and the strength of smartphone offerings from Motorola competitors Apple, RIM and Nokia.
However, the Cliq and other future Motorola smartphones may allow the company to recapture some of its recent share losses. Although its unlikely that Motorola will able to return to its 2006 peak, the ability to stem share losses and even grow share incrementally could translate to meaningful upside to the Trefis forecast. Within Motorola’s content on our platform, you can see how an increase in Motorola Market Share due to the success of Cliq and other Android-based Motorola smartphones would impact the company’s stock price.