AppleInsider reported yesterday that Apple is poised to announce its new line of iMac desktop computers within the coming weeks. With the success of the iPod and iPhone over the last few years, an increasing amount of Apple’s value comes from outside its Macintosh computer business. Macintosh constitutes 23% of the $191 per share Trefis price for Apple, and Desktops (a part of Macintosh), constitutes less than 3% of Apple’s stock price estimate.
The desktop business for many PC makers has suffered from the on-going shift to notebooks. Falling desktop prices and declining desktop volumes mean that the contribution of desktops to the value of many PC makers is diminishing. We expect Apple’s desktop prices to decline along with industry prices, but believe Apple will continue to grow its market share amongst desktops.
More specifically, we forecast that average pricing will decline from around $1,260 today to $670 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. Though pricing for the new iMac line is unclear at this point, it’s very likely that average prices will continue to decline. The inclusion of Blu-ray DVD players in some models could help maintain pricing.
We expect Apple’s desktop business will benefit, however, from the success of Apple’s marquee iPhone and iPod products. The “halo effect” is certainly making it easier for Apple to market its other products to consumers. We forecast market share within desktops to increase from 2.6% today to 4.4% over the forecast period.
Within Apple’s content on our platform, you can see how the Macintosh Desktop business depends on Mac Desktop Pricing and Mac Desktops Market Share.
