Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPad went on pre-sale on March 12 and sold an estimated 120,000 iPads on the first day. AppleInsider reports that Apple has made order calls to manufacture 5 million iPads in the first half of 2010. These early indicators suggest that there could be additional upside to our forecast of 4 million iPad unit sales in 2010.
iPad is 4% of Apple’s Stock
Based on our forecast for iPad Pricing, iPad Unit Sales and iPad Gross Margins, we estimate that Apple’s iPad business constitutes 4% of the $267 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.
4 million iPad Units in 2010
We forecast 4 million iPad unit sales in 2010 based in part on how iPhone and Kindle unit sales have trended in the past. Apple sold about 3.7 million iPhones in 2007 after the launch of the device in June of that year.
Amazon sold about 1 million units of its Kindle e-reader in 2009 and we expect this figure to reach 2 million in 2010. We believe that the iPad appeals to a wider audience and will be able to sell more units than the Kindle in the first year of launch.
Apple stock could gain $8 if it is able to sell 10 million iPads in 2010
Based on the strong iPad pre-order volume and Apple’s plans to manufacture 5 million iPads in the first half of 2010, there could be higher upside to our iPad forecast. You can modify our forecasts for iPad units sold above to see how the company’s stock will be impacted if iPad sales were to grow faster than our forecast. By modifying the forecast, you can see how 10 million iPad sales in 2010 would translate to an $8 upside to the $267 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.
For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for Apple.
