A starting point for estimating Apple’s potential ebook sales is Amazon. Foner Books, a book publishing company, estimates that Amazon sells 60,000 ebooks per week. We expect Amazon to sell 1.2 million Kindles in 2010; this would mean about 2 ebooks sold per Kindle per month or 24 ebooks sold per Kindle per year.
Since iPad users will not necessarily be as devoted ebook readers compared to Kindle owners, we estimate a ebook ratio for iPad of 1 ebook per month for each iPad sold. We have estimated that Apple will sell around 4 million iPads in 2010 (see our analysis here) which implies 48 million ebooks sold through the iTunes store in 2010.
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We expect Number of eBooks sold to increase to around 106 million by the end of Trefis forecast period as Apple sells more iPads.
You can modify our forecasts above to see how Apple’s stock would be impacted if the number of iPads and eBooks sales were to grow faster than what we forecast.
For additional analysis and forecasts, here is our complete model for AAPL.