William Briat

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Why This Travel Company's Stock Just Keeps Going Up and Up
  • by , 2 weeks ago
  • tags: BA HTHT
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . Why This Travel Company’s Stock Just Keeps Going Up and Up The travel market in China continues to be strong in spite of the country’s economic growth stalling around 7.4%. Spending has been triggered not only by personal travel, but the country is on the verge of surpassing the United States in the area of business travel. Just take a look at the industry metrics. In 2013, total travel business spending in China came in at $225 billion, based on research by the Global Business Travel Association. In the country, you can witness the explosive growth in travel infrastructure, which includes airlines, high-speed rail transit, cars and car rentals, and hotels. In fact, China is already the world’s largest market for airlines, cars, and rail. The country is spending hundreds of billions of dollars in these areas and it’s only going to get bigger. And with more than 1.3 billion people in China alone, you know the travel market within the country will also expand. You can now travel from Shanghai to Beijing in a few hours by taking a high-speed train and based on the government’s ambitious plans, the high-speed rail network is only going to expand. In the airline sector, just ask Boeing Company (NYSE/BA) about China and you’ll realize it’s becoming the most lucrative global market for airplanes. The vehicle market is also continuing to be the largest in the world, only held back by quota restrictions placed on car sales by the government in an effort to limit pollution. With all of this added travel in the skies, on the roads, across the water, and by rail, you know the demand for hotels is also surging. After all, people need a place to rest once they reach their destination. In the Chinese hotel market, a good domestic value-oriented Chinese hotel chain is Shanghai-based China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ/HTHT), which had more than 20 million members in its loyalty program at the end of June. Initially built in 2005, the reasonably priced hotels, ranging from economy to mid-scale, comprise about 1,669 hotels and 179,186 rooms across 270 cities in China as of June 30. The company had a high occupancy rate of approximately 90% in the second quarter. The chart below shows the stock currently in a sideways channel with a recent breakout, but the stock has retrenched to its old channel. The stock is holding just above its 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), based on my technical analysis. We could see another breakout on the horizon, but be careful, as the stock could also falter down to the $24.00 level in the short-term. Chart courtesy of  www.StockCharts.com For this company, the growth has been consistent. China Lodging has reported six straight years of revenue growth, from $37.31 million in 2007 to $688.59 million in 2013. The growth is expected to continue this year at 20.1%, followed by 14.4% in 2015, according to Thomson Financial. So considering the expanding numbers in the business travel area, investors may want to considering riding the travel wave in China with a company like China Lodging.   Read More: http://www.dailygainsletter.com/investment-strategy/why-this-travel-companys-stock-just-keeps-going-up-and-up/3355/
    Alternative Energy the Next Big Play?
  • by , 4 weeks ago
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . Alternative Energy the Next Big Play? Alternative energy plays have been around for decades, including Ballard Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ/BLDP), a maker of hydrogen fuel cells that went public in 1993. The stock traded as high as $100.00 as a speculative investment opportunity in early 2000 but was unable to break into the automotive market. It is currently drifting at the $4.00 level. However, what Ballard was hoping for is now materializing for battery-powered automaker Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ/TSLA), which has built a superhighway of charging stations across the U.S. and is expanding into Europe and China. Tesla is a great story and a decent possible investment opportunity. Yet it’s not only vehicles that demand alternative sources of energy; we also see demand coming from numerous applications and, in some cases, manufacturing facilities. The demand for alternative energy can be based on wind, solar, or water and has led to the development of a strong solar industry as an investment opportunity. A small-cap that has been exciting the stock market while producing sizzling gains for speculators has been Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ/PLUG), a developer of hydrogen fuel cells that power forklifts and other devices. The stock traded as low as $0.32 over the past 52 weeks, surging to $6.37 on Thursday morning after reporting strong results. Plug Power has been on my technical analysis screens for some time, as the stock consistently breaks higher. If interested, I would suggest investors look to this stock on weakness for a volatile speculative investment opportunity. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com Another possible investment opportunity that may interest investors in the alternative energy space is FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ/FCEL), which has a market cap of $616 million. The stock has traded as low as $1.12 and as high as $4.74 over the past 52 weeks. The current price is halved at $2.37, so there’s a potential aggressive investment opportunity here. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com FuelCell is a developer of fuel cell solutions by way of its stationary “Direct FuelCell” power plants, built to deliver ultra-clean, efficient, and reliable green power. The process involves harnessing the energy of renewable biogas from wastewater treatment and food processing. Clients are varied and include commercial, industrial, government, and utility businesses. Sectors served include the food and beverage, manufacturing, hospital and prison, college and university, hospitality, utilities, and wastewater treatment areas. FuelCell says its energy produced is up to two times more efficient than fossil fuel plants. The company’s plants produce output ranging from 300 kilowatts (kW) to 2.8 megawatts (MW) and are expandable to more than 50 MW. There are currently more than 50 plants worldwide that have generated more than 300 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity. FuelCell is expanding in Southeast Asia, including South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, which the company sees as an investment opportunity. Revenues are estimated to rise 7.2% to $201.16 million in FY14 followed by 22.6% to an estimated $246.54 million in FY15, according to Thomson Financial. I suggest investors keep an eye on a company like FuelCell, as this volatile investment opportunity has tremendous upside if it can deliver results. http://www.dailygainsletter.com/investment-strategy/alternative-energy-stock-the-next-big-play/3332/
    Top Two Restaurant Stocks to Watch into 2015
  • by , 2 months ago
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . Top Two Restaurant Stocks to Watch into 2015 There’s simply nothing more enjoyable than a fine wine and a great meal. I’m also a beer and wings kind of guy. Over the past decade, we have seen the popularity of food shows gain steam. Triggered by the Iron Chef series, cooking shows have become mainstream reality shows with the likes of widely popular British chef Gordon Ramsey and his Hell’s Kitchen and Master Chef series. Yet the restaurant sector is not always about fine dining. It’s big business and often the most successful restaurant stocks are the fast food and casual dining chains, according to my stock analysis. The chart of the Dow Jones U.S. Restaurants & Bars Index below clearly reflects the advancement in the sector since late 2012, based on my stock analysis. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com The restaurant sector is based largely on income levels and jobs. The more people work and make, the greater likelihood they will eat out. Just look at the emerging wealth levels in China and the associated expansion of restaurants in that country. A couple of my favorite non-fast food restaurant stocks are Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE/CMG) and Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ/TXRH), based on my stock analysis. Chipotle is one of the top restaurant stocks at this time. My stock analysis indicates that the company has been taking market share away from Taco Bell, which is owned by YUM! Brands, Inc. (NYSE/YUM), and McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD). For Chipotle, there was an excellent buying opportunity in October 2012, when the stock fell to a 52-week low of $233.82 and has since rallied 158%. At the current price, Chipotle is looking top-heavy, but it could be worth a look on weakness, based on my stock analysis. For more of a sit-down casual meal, a restaurant stock I like is Texas Roadhouse. The network includes more than 425 restaurants across 48 states and three countries. Whether it’s burgers, fries, salads, or seafood, there’s something for everyone here. Texas Roadhouse has been a model of consistency, reporting higher sequential revenue growth over the past 12 years, from $159.91 million in 2001 to $1.42 billion in 2013. The growth is estimated by Thomson Financial to continue into 2014 and 2015. Texas Roadhouse has also delivered on the earnings end, reporting higher earnings growth in 11 of the last 12 years, and this is expected to continue into 2014 and 2015, which presents a buying opportunity. Other restaurant stocks that are worth a look, based on my stock analysis, include The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ/CAKE) and Ruths Hospitality Group, Inc. (NASDAQ/RUTH). Whatever your situation, my stock analysis suggests that there’s money to be made in the restaurant sector, especially if the economy improves and people become more confident in spending some cash. Source: http://www.dailygainsletter.com/stock-market/top-two-restaurant-stocks-to-watch-into-2015/3246/
    China Surpasses U.S. as Largest Corporate Debt Issuer
  • by , 3 months ago
  • tags: BAC FXI TLT
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . China Surpasses U.S. as Largest Corporate Debt Issuer China has officially overtaken United States as the world’s biggest issuer of corporate debt according to a report released on Monday by Standard & Poor’s. Is this the sign of end of America in global domination? China’s nonfinancial companies had total outstanding bank loans and bonds worth $14.2 trillion where else United States had $13.1 trillion at the end of last year. It is estimated that China’s debt level will cross $20 trillion by the end of 2018 which would make it the largest one. Standard & Poor’s estimated that 1/4 to 1/3 of the China’s current corporate debt is sourced from shadow banking sector. “This means that as much as 10 percent of global corporate debt is exposed to the risk of a contraction in China’s informal banking sector,” S.&P .analysts wrote in their report. said, estimating this at $4 trillion to $5 trillion. “With China’s economy likely to grow at a nominal 10 percent per year over the next five years, this amount can only increase.” “China’s large and still-expanding contribution to global corporate debt, the higher financial risk is causing overall corporate risk to increase globally,” the agency said. “As the world’s second-largest national economy, any significant reverse for China’s corporate sector could quickly spread to other countries.” Although China significantly avoided 2008 financial meltdown by going on a tremendous credit binge, signs of wear and tear in Chinese credit market have started and widely noticed: last year one of the largest Chinese steelmakers Shanxi Haixin Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. also failed to repay some debt. The S&P analysts write: “Our findings confirm that while China’s corporate companies started 2009 better off than global peers, their cash flow and leverage have worsened in subsequent years.” Conclusion: China’s share of the global corporate debt market grows ever larger.
    The Only Sector I Believe Will Deliver as Corporate America Struggles
  • by , 3 months ago
  • tags: ETFC SPY TLT
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . The Only Sector I Believe Will Deliver as Corporate America Struggles We are a few weeks away from the second-quarter earnings season and again, there’s a lot of hope and optimism that corporate America will be able to deliver the goods. But we also said that for the first-quarter earnings season—and prior to that, we said the same for the fourth-quarter earnings season. Before, what we saw instead was sluggish revenue growth along with companies having an easier time on the earnings front, as Wall Street does what it usually does—lowering earnings estimates to meet the changing situation, making it easier for companies to meet expectations. In the first-quarter earnings season, it was about the strain placed on companies by the bitter winter. That’s fair, but there really are no more excuses for this quarter. The nation’s jobs numbers are looking better after the country managed to recover all of the 8.7 million or so jobs lost since the start of the Great Recession. If the economy can continue to generate jobs growth at more than 200,000 new jobs monthly, then we would expect consumer spending and confidence levels to improve. Yet having said this, there’s clearly still some trepidation out there, especially with the decline in wealth levels of the middle class and below. Read More: The Only Sector I Believe Will Deliver as Corporate America Struggles
    How to Profit from RadioShack's Coming Demise
  • by , 3 months ago
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . How to Profit from RadioShack’s Coming Demise Retail is tough, especially the bricks-and-mortar end (i.e. physical stores). Blockbuster and Circuit City are examples of two major companies that plummeted into the abyss after failing to recognize the strong moves long ago towards online shopping with the growing popularity and accessibility of the Internet, based on my stock analysis . Now, it looks like we are seeing clues that yet another major retailer may soon follow suit. My stock analysis indicates that electronic retailer RadioShack Corporation (NYSE/RSH) could be the next big retailer to collapse. I can personally tell you that RadioShack is well past its prime. There’s an outlet near me, and I can honestly say that I have only been there a few times in the 14 years I have lived in the area. Shoppers looking for TVs, gaming consoles, mobile devices, and the like usually venture out to the Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE/BBY) that is located within a mile of this RadioShack. However, Best Buy is still not totally safe, based on my stock analysis. Under the leadership of Hubert Joly, the electronic retailer has improved, but the company continues to face massive competition from both other physical stores and online sales especially. I’m not sure I would be running to buy Best Buy at this time, and the stock market appears to be in agreement with my stock analysis, as the company is about 28% off its high. My stock analysis suggests that Best Buy is not dead, as the stores are still popular as a place to physically shop; however, the issue I see is that electronic retailing has become extremely competitive based on price. Even if you happen to find what you are looking for at the local Best Buy or via their online store, many consumers will still shop around for better prices online. Now Best Buy guarantees the lowest price, but I’m not that convinced this can prevent shoppers going elsewhere, based on my stock analysis. And in addition to the online rivals, my stock analysis indicates that Best Buy and RadioShack are also facing competition from the likes of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ/AMZN). Wal-Mart, which I refer to as the “Death Star” of retailing, has been aggressively moving into electronics, offering very competitive pricing. If you are a Wal-Mart shopper, you will likely buy your TVs and other gadgets, such as mobile phones, there. Best Buy still has a much better selection of products, but Wal-Mart and other big-box stores, such as Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ/COST), are real threats, as my stock analysis suggests. On the online side, Best Buy needs to be mindful of the growing presence of Amazon.com, which has become a major online seller of goods, including electronics that go head-to-head with Best Buy. If deciding on whether Best Buy is a good investment at this time, I would be hesitant, given the likely demise of RadioShack. The pending destruction of RadioShack is not simply due to Best Buy, but all of the reasons I discussed above, based on my stock analysis. That means that it will still be a tough battle for Best Buy, even after RadioShack’s demise. As such, aggressive traders may look at shorting the stock on strength, or a less risky venture would be to buy put options on Best Buy and benefit from weakness. This article How to Profit from RadioShack’s Coming Demise was originally posted at Daily Gains Letter
    The Secret Mobile Stocks
  • by , 3 months ago
  • tags: GOOG T VZ CHL
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . The Secret Mobile Stocks Many of you may think AT&T Inc. (NYSE/T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE/VZ) are some of the best ways in the stock market to play the mobile sector, but there are other choices; it’s just that you need to leave our friendly borders. The biggest growth area for mobile is found in the emerging markets. I’m talking about such countries as Brazil, India and, the biggest one of them all, China. China has the most dominant mobile market in the world. There are over one billion subscribers and counting as the rural population comes on board. Think about it this way: there are more people on the country’s mobile network than in the U.S. and the European Union combined! What a massive market. And I think our readers should get a taste of it. Now, you may think there are dozens of mobile providers—so how will you choose? But the truth is that the Chinese government decides on how many major operators are allowed. The country currently has three major mobile providers with access to the massive market potential. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) has significant potential in the country, especially with its recent alliance with China Mobile Limited (NYSE/CHL). China Mobile is the biggest mobile phone operator in China, with about 785 million subscribers as of April 30. That’s a lot of business. With a market cap of around $199 billion, the company is massive. By comparison, AT&T is the largest mobile provider in the U.S. with a market cap of $181 billion, and Verizon has a market cap of $204 billion. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com China Mobile has been ranked the top brand in BusinessWeek ‘s “20 Best China Brands.” The stock pays an annual dividend of $1.88 for a current dividend yield of 3.8%, based on the prevailing stock price of $49.43 on June 10. And while China Mobile is already king of the mobile space in China, the company is also expanding outside of its borders. The company announced an $880-million purchase for an 18% stake in Thailand-based True Corp. China Mobile already owns Bertrange-Luxembourg-based Millicom International Cellular S.A., a telecom operator with about eight million subscribers in Central America, South America, Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Southeast Asia. So while China is clearly the dominant and key focus market, China Mobile is showing that it wants to expand into other emerging mobile markets via acquisitions. I think China Mobile has what it takes; it’s definitely a company to watch. First published in the Daily Gains Letter  
    Three Variables to Consider Before Investing in Gold
  • by , 5 months ago
  • tags: AIG GLD NUGT
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . Three Variables to Consider Before Investing in Gold While there continue to be many gold bugs out there, I’m not one of them—but I do see gold as a trading opportunity. Given what we have seen so far and looking ahead, I just don’t see gold as a buy-and-hold strategy at this time. Yes, there’s money to be made, but it’s going to be for traders only. The recent break below $1,300 an ounce and the subsequent rally to the current $1,325 level is an example of such a trade, not a new trend that’s developing on the charts, based on my technical analysis. The chart below shows the potential declines in the metal towards $1,200 and $1,100 an ounce. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com Many gold supporters will counter that China is hoarding gold and India will soon pick up its buying. While I don’t argue against this, I just don’t see the yellow metal retaining its luster at this point unless a war breaks out in Ukraine and Russia intensifies its threat. If this should happen, it would drive Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth lower and could result in the fragile eurozone and European economies retrenching back into a recession that just ended. I wrote about gold several weeks back as a trading opportunity on dips below $1,300. I continue to hold on to that belief, but longer-term, the yellow metal could fade and fall back towards $1,200 or less. My thinking is that inflation is nowhere to be seen in the United States, China, or Europe. (In fact, deflation may be more of a concern here.) And unless inflation picks up, the yellow metal isn’t going higher on a sustained move. That’s one of my top reasons why gold may head lower. A second reason is that the Federal Reserve is continuing to cut its quantitative easing via its monthly bond purchases. The move is meant to force yields, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar higher. If it succeeds, the stronger value of the greenback will negatively affect demand for the yellow metal, which is priced in U.S. dollars. My third reason is that, unless economic growth falters in this country, we will likely see capital move into the stock market and equities versus gold. After the strong returns in 2013 coupled with the poor start to 2014, traders are likely to be more inclined to funnel money into stocks than gold at this time. Now, if the economy does weaken and a conflict escalates in Europe, gold would then move higher under these circumstances, but its sustainability would be an issue. So the way I view it is that gold is only for traders and not for buy-and-hold investors at this time. If the three variables I talked about hold true, then investors can expect the yellow metal to inevitably trend lower. But, of course, there will be quick shorter-term trading opportunities that will still surface. This article Three Variables to Consider Before Investing in Gold was originally posted Daily Gains Letter
    The retail sector can return some amazing gains as we have witnessed since the recession ended
  • by , 5 months ago
  • tags: AEO FDO TIF KOR
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . The retail sector can return some amazing gains as we have witnessed since the recession ended The retail sector can return some amazing gains as we have witnessed since the recession ended—but it can also provide periods of anxiety. How the retail sector performs is dependent on many variables, including the economy, jobs, housing, consumer confidence, interest rates, and even the weather, as we witnessed this winter. There is no tried-and-tested rule on what areas of the retail sector do well. For instance, if you think discount and big-box stores always fare the best, while high-end luxury-brand stocks underperform during times of economic uncertainty, then you are likely off the mark. The reality is that the past years of massive wealth creation in the stock market and a rebounding housing market have helped to create wealth, and with this comes the desire to spend. There have been some 300,000 new millionaires created in the country in 2013, and that means a propensity to want to spend specifically on higher-end goods and services. The rationale supports why luxury stocks, such as Michael Kors Holdings Limited (NYSE/KORS) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE/TIF), have done so well over the past few years. In the luxury retail sector space, Michael Kors continues to be one of my favorite retail sector stocks. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com Meanwhile, the bottom end of the retail sector, which includes the discount and big-box stores, has provided mixed results; albeit, these stocks have made investors a lot of money. One of my favorite discount stocks in the retail sector is Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE/FDO). But the company recently reported a soft fiscal second quarter, in which same-store sales fell 3.8% in the quarter; year-over-year, sales in the quarter fell by more than six percent. Moreover, the company reported a massive shortfall in earnings after reporting a disappointing $0.80 per diluted share, way below the $1.21 per diluted share recorded in the past year. The weather’s impact accounted for only about $0.05 per diluted share, so you know the numbers are bad. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com For Family Dollar Stores to report such a big miss is worrisome. The company already announced it would close about 370 underperforming stores and slow down its new store expansion. While the results are suggestive of weakness, I continue to like the stock, especially on the current price weakness. Potential investors can accumulate on additional weakness. If the economy and jobs creation continue to grow modestly, we could see the retail sector grow more this year than in 2013. Retail sales (excluding auto and food) could grow 4.1% this year versus the approximate 3.7% in 2013, according to the National Retail Federation. (Source: “NRF Forecasts 4.1% Increase in Retail Sales for 2014,” National Retail Federation web site, February 6, 2014.) The estimate assumes gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 2.6% and three percent for the year, monthly average jobs growth of 185,000, and improvement in the housing market. If the numbers come close to the NRF’s estimates, we could see a decent year for the retail sector; albeit, you need to be selective in what stocks you add.
    How to Navigate the Ridiculous World of Social Media Stocks
  • by , 5 months ago
  • Submitted by William Briat as part of our contributors program . How to Navigate the Ridiculous World of Social Media Stocks The tension in the stock market is clearly evident, especially with the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 breaching their respective 50-day moving average (MA). What we have seen in the stock market is a shift away from higher-beta growth and small-cap stocks to the perceived safety of blue chips and large-cap stocks, which I recently wrote about. Driving much of the current malaise in the stock market has been the selling in the technology groups, specifically the high-momentum stocks that attracted major buying euphoria in 2013, in spite of what were high valuations and overdone optimism. While I continue to like technology for growth investors in the stock market, I have also been quite vocal in not chasing some of the outrageous valuations that were assigned to these stocks by the stock market. With some of the brand-name momentum plays trading at more than 100 times (X) earnings, you have to step back, pause, and consider these metrics are ridiculous and undeserved. There are some analysts in the stock market coming out and advising to buy on this dip, but I’m not as convinced, especially toward the high-beta and high-valuation momentum plays in the stock market. The extreme valuation in the stock market is most evident in the social media space, which saw some impressive gains over the past few years even though many were not even making any money. These stocks are definitely not the kind that investment guru Warren Buffett would buy. Take a look at Twitter, Inc. (NASDAQ/TWTR). This has to be one of the most overvalued stocks in the stock market at this time. The company has a loyal following and is experiencing some strong revenue growth, but having to pay more than 200X its 2015 earnings is ridiculous. The stock would need to drop to below $30.00 before I would even consider giving it a look. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com Social media is about vision and laying out a plan for where you think the space is headed. If you are looking for a social media play, I would stick with Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB), with its more than one billion subscribers and vast long-term upside price appreciation potential. Facebook appears to have a solid game plan in mind that is focused on the user network and how to better hook up users and make money from this. The company’s current valuation of 34X its 2015 earnings per share (EPS) and price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.44 is reasonable, given its potential. We are also seeing institutional buying in the stock, which helps to confirm the story. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com In the social media space, I also like LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE/LNKD), which connects people in the business world. The stock has plummeted to $162.00 and is way down from its high of more than $255.00. Yet in spite of the sell-off, I would still be hesitant and would wait for more weakness before jumping in. I would be looking at this play if the stock fell to the $130.00 level, which was last encountered in September 2012. Failure to hold here could see a move towards $100.00. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com My advice to you is to wait for potentially more selling in momentum and social media stocks before you take a closer look. This article How to Navigate the Ridiculous World of Social Media Stocks was originally published at Daily Gains Letter


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