Edward Daciuk

Bachelor Science, Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania

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Education

Bachelor Science at Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania, Aug '90 - May '94

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Yahoo Logo
  • commented 10/14/11
  • tags: YHOO
  • Bidders for Yahoo seem to be expanding. There's been a 50% run-up in the stock since August 8th with no real improvement in fundamentals. So it's unclear how much M&A upside is already baked into the stock.

    Clipped from bloomberg.com using the Trefis clipping tool:
    Yahoo’s advisers have been fielding inquiries from “multiple parties,” according to a September memo to employees. The advisers view the Silver Lake group and the Providence group as the two likeliest buyers, with Alibaba and private-equity funds joining one of the efforts, a person said.

    The firms may become part of a consortium that
    ... Read more

    [ less... ]
    Bidders for Yahoo seem to be expanding. There's been a 50% run-up in the stock since August 8th with no real improvement in fundamentals. So it's unclear how much M&A upside is already baked into the stock. Clipped from bloomberg.com using the Trefis clipping tool: Yahoo’s advisers have been fielding inquiries from “multiple parties,” according to a September memo to employees. The advisers view the Silver Lake group and the Providence group as the two likeliest buyers, with Alibaba and private-equity funds joining one of the efforts, a person said. The firms may become part of a consortium that ... Read more
  • commented 10/13/11
  • tags: FSLR LDK SPWR STP
  • Solar's an interesting fight. It feels like two companies are pulling away from the pack, U.S.-based First Solar and China-based Suntech Power. So clearly the U.S. wants the U.S. to win (cough...Solyndra...cough) and China wants the same for their companies. I am probably a biased Westerner, but China is playing hardball. It's not the loans. China is also subsidizing through land grants, tax breaks, and who knows what else. It's hard to track and even harder to see what the impact on First Solar will be.



    Source: Guardian UK

    [ less... ]
    Solar's an interesting fight. It feels like two companies are pulling away from the pack, U.S.-based First Solar and China-based Suntech Power. So clearly the U.S. wants the U.S. to win (cough...Solyndra...cough) and China wants the same for their companies. I am probably a biased Westerner, but China is playing hardball. It's not the loans. China is also subsidizing through land grants, tax breaks, and who knows what else. It's hard to track and even harder to see what the impact on First Solar will be. Source: Guardian UK



    Netflix Logo
  • commented 10/13/11
  • tags: NFLX
  • For Netflix to stay relevant they need to stay ahead on distribution and on relative amount of content. Signing up shows like those on CW are important but at what cost. If NFLX doesn't keep the subscriber growth train running their economics are going collapse like a house of cards

    Clipped from reuters.com using the Trefis clipping tool:
    The deal extends from the current season through 2014-15. Episodes of all scripted series the CW debuted this season ... Read more

    [ less... ]
    For Netflix to stay relevant they need to stay ahead on distribution and on relative amount of content. Signing up shows like those on CW are important but at what cost. If NFLX doesn't keep the subscriber growth train running their economics are going collapse like a house of cards Clipped from reuters.com using the Trefis clipping tool: The deal extends from the current season through 2014-15. Episodes of all scripted series the CW debuted this season ... Read more
    Amazon Logo
  • commented 10/12/11
  • tags: AMZN MSFT GOOG
  • Video games are a $60 billion industry and PC games are making a comeback compared to consoles. With the new second screen, tablets, and the rise of Internet connected TVs, the whole industry is up for grabs. Amazon is in an interesting position to attack this market (so are Microsoft, Google, and Apple).

    Clipped from news.cnet.com:
    The Swiss Army Knife of Internet companies is already offering several titles for sale in download form. Amazon's entry joins a crowded space that includes EA's Origin, Steam, direct2drive, GameStop, and many other PC game download providers. ... Read more

    [ less... ]
    Video games are a $60 billion industry and PC games are making a comeback compared to consoles. With the new second screen, tablets, and the rise of Internet connected TVs, the whole industry is up for grabs. Amazon is in an interesting position to attack this market (so are Microsoft, Google, and Apple). Clipped from news.cnet.com: The Swiss Army Knife of Internet companies is already offering several titles for sale in download form. Amazon's entry joins a crowded space that includes EA's Origin, Steam, direct2drive, GameStop, and many other PC game download providers. ... Read more
  • commented 10/5/11
  • tags: NFLX BBY TWC MSFT INTC GOOG CMCSA AAPL DISH TWX
  • First Kill All of the Video Distributors...Paramount Runs an Experiment

    What would happen if Random House launched an online competitor to Amazon's book site? Crazy right? But Paramount is running a little experiment that is basically the same thing. They quietly launched direct rentals of Transformers: Dark of the Moon from their web site. Sounds crazy but combine original content with an off-the-shelf video rental platform and a little known effort called Ultraviolet and it might payoff, just not in the way you think.



    Amy Powell, Executive VP Interactive Marketing and Film Production at Paramount says "We're testing the waters and interested to see consumer feedback. It's just a little toe-dip to move in the direction we believe will be one of the future distribution means for content." It's a "little toe-dip" designed to kick the distribution/technology wannabe gatekeepers in the nuts. But more on that in a minute.

    The offering is being delivered on CSGI's Content Direct platform. Content Direct is an off-the-shelf video rental platform that allows content providers to offer content directly to consumers. It includes member management, billing, ad monetization, and of course content management.



    So Content Direct is a new wrinkle in the diffusion of video distribution. Most of the headlines have focused on Netflix, Apple, and Google and their TV/mobile plays. A platform like Content Direct means the content providers can open another front in the war for video dollars to scare distributors.

    Another interesting wrinkle adjacent to direct-to-consumer rentals is Ultraviolet. It's a standard/platform/alliance backed by most of the major studios and a who's who of video industry and technology players. It basically allows for media portability. Bought a video through iTunes on your computer and want to watch it on your Android tablet? Not possible now. But if Ultraviolet takes off you could.



    That all said, who really wants to have to go to twenty web sites to shop for a movie. Nobody. But this isn't about Paramount or other studios offering direct rentals. This is 100% about leverage. The industry fears Apple dominance in video the way they dominate music. They fear Google almost as much. Add direct to consumer offerings and media portability to distribution contract negotiations and the content guys get more leverage. As a result, content providers can ratchet down Apple's, or anyone else's, aspirations to take 30% of the dollars in the industry. Even if those would-be gatekeepers own the hardware, software, and ultimately the customer relationship.

    Just another interesting salvo in the $500 billion television battle. [ less... ]
    First Kill All of the Video Distributors...Paramount Runs an Experiment What would happen if Random House launched an online competitor to Amazon's book site? Crazy right? But Paramount is running a little experiment that is basically the same thing. They quietly launched direct rentals of Transformers: Dark of the Moon from their web site. Sounds crazy but combine original content with an off-the-shelf video rental platform and a little known effort called Ultraviolet and it might payoff, just not in the way you think. Amy Powell, Executive VP Interactive Marketing and Film Production at Paramount says "We're testing the waters and interested to see consumer feedback. It's just a little toe-dip to move in the direction we believe will be one of the future distribution means for content." It's a "little toe-dip" designed to kick the distribution/technology wannabe gatekeepers in the nuts. But more on that in a minute. The offering is being delivered on CSGI's Content Direct platform. Content Direct is an off-the-shelf video rental platform that allows content providers to offer content directly to consumers. It includes member management, billing, ad monetization, and of course content management. So Content Direct is a new wrinkle in the diffusion of video distribution. Most of the headlines have focused on Netflix, Apple, and Google and their TV/mobile plays. A platform like Content Direct means the content providers can open another front in the war for video dollars to scare distributors. Another interesting wrinkle adjacent to direct-to-consumer rentals is Ultraviolet. It's a standard/platform/alliance backed by most of the major studios and a who's who of video industry and technology players. It basically allows for media portability. Bought a video through iTunes on your computer and want to watch it on your Android tablet? Not possible now. But if Ultraviolet takes off you could. That all said, who really wants to have to go to twenty web sites to shop for a movie. Nobody. But this isn't about Paramount or other studios offering direct rentals. This is 100% about leverage. The industry fears Apple dominance in video the way they dominate music. They fear Google almost as much. Add direct to consumer offerings and media portability to distribution contract negotiations and the content guys get more leverage. As a result, content providers can ratchet down Apple's, or anyone else's, aspirations to take 30% of the dollars in the industry. Even if those would-be gatekeepers own the hardware, software, and ultimately the customer relationship. Just another interesting salvo in the $500 billion television battle.



  • commented 10/5/11
  • tags: MS
  • Morgan Stanley Seems Okay On Paper, Some Data

    Morgan Stanley, as of 2Q11 data, seems like it can weather its obligations but the short-term liquidity considerations are key.

    Liquidity reserves are up 50% since the '08 crisis.





    Leverage is way down.



    Riskiest debt is down.



    And as long as European debt issues don't drag down all of Europe, foreign exposure seems manageable.



    Two other factors are key.

    1) Short-term liquidity. MS is still a bank so presumably the Fed can lend a hand (political will a factor).

    2) Mitsubishi. The second backstop for a MS crash is Mitsubishi which has deep pockets and an apparent willingness to stand by its partner.

    All that together makes it seem like Morgan Stanley will be fine. Of course a lot of people said that in '08. [ less... ]
    Morgan Stanley Seems Okay On Paper, Some Data Morgan Stanley, as of 2Q11 data, seems like it can weather its obligations but the short-term liquidity considerations are key. Liquidity reserves are up 50% since the '08 crisis. Leverage is way down. Riskiest debt is down. And as long as European debt issues don't drag down all of Europe, foreign exposure seems manageable. Two other factors are key. 1) Short-term liquidity. MS is still a bank so presumably the Fed can lend a hand (political will a factor). 2) Mitsubishi. The second backstop for a MS crash is Mitsubishi which has deep pockets and an apparent willingness to stand by its partner. All that together makes it seem like Morgan Stanley will be fine. Of course a lot of people said that in '08.



  • commented 10/5/11
  • tags: MS
  • Morgan Stanley CEO Sends Memo to Employees Urging Them to Keep Their Wits



    Source: Wall Street Journal [ less... ]
    Morgan Stanley CEO Sends Memo to Employees Urging Them to Keep Their Wits Source: Wall Street Journal



  • commented 10/5/11
  • tags: LNKD GOOG
  • Social Network Ad Revenues to Reach $10 Billion Worldwide in 2013





    eMarketer is reporting that global social ad revenues will hit $5.5 billion this year, an increase of 55%. The vast majority apparently going to Facebook, or approximately $3.8 billion. The market is expected to grow to almost $10 billion in the next two years. So clearly, if Facebook can fend of G+, they've got the wind at their backs, for now.


    [ less... ]
    Social Network Ad Revenues to Reach $10 Billion Worldwide in 2013 eMarketer is reporting that global social ad revenues will hit $5.5 billion this year, an increase of 55%. The vast majority apparently going to Facebook, or approximately $3.8 billion. The market is expected to grow to almost $10 billion in the next two years. So clearly, if Facebook can fend of G+, they've got the wind at their backs, for now.



    Apple Logo
    AAPL $175
  • made a price estimate 8/24/11
  • tags: AAPL
  •  iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones
     iPad Units Sales
      [ less... ]
     iPhone's Market Share in Mobile Phones
     iPad Units Sales
     
    Nokia Logo
    NOK $8.24
  • made a price estimate 7/19/11
  • tags: NOK
  •  HERE EBITDA Margin
      [ less... ]
     HERE EBITDA Margin
     
    Microsoft Logo
    MSFT $43.78
  • made a price estimate 3/20/11
  • tags: MSFT
  •  Windows' Market Share of PCs
     Global Desktop Market
     Windows OS Operating Margin
     Microsoft Office Operating Margin
     Global Notebook and Netbook Market
      [ less... ]
     Windows' Market Share of PCs
     Global Desktop Market
     Windows OS Operating Margin
     Microsoft Office Operating Margin
     Global Notebook and Netbook Market
     
    Google Logo
    GOOG $544
  • made a price estimate 8/15/11
  • tags: GOOG
  •   [ less... ]
     

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