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  • commented 2 years ago
  • tags: ATVI AMZN EA GME
  • This view is way, way off base from reality and ignores some very key negative influencers. There are also some bald inaccuracies offered here:

    -The "Titan" project is unannounced officially; there is no word on what financial model that franchise will bear, and the 2014 release prediction bears no relationship with any kind of reality. 2015/16 is the current "Best Bet" on a Titan release: indeed, "Titan" is simply an in-house code name for the project.

    -The non-Chinese 2.7 million sales figure on WoW's Mists expansion looks good on paper, but masks the fact that the game has lost an additional 1.9 million subscribers since the last quarterly report. The fact is that Mists of Pandaria, the expansion designed to hopefully draw subscribers back into the fold and to lure new subscriber blood into the franchise, has netted only about 700k plus-side subscribers since 1 July 2012.

    -One hidden and potentially crucial factor is the number of "Annual Pass" subscriptions which are set to expire over the next 90 days. The Annual Pass initiative was a 12-month contract initiative offered during the 4Q 2011 when subscription numbers were bleeding and there were no new content updates on the books. The offer drew in 1.2 million takers over the three-month offer period; approximately 7-900,000 of these are predicted to fall from the subscription ranks in coming weeks.

    -The CoD initiative never took off with gamers used to spending a $50-60 box fee and nothing more. The attempts to monetize this non-subscription franchise died on the vine, though the company is still trying ...

    The bald truth is that subscription-based gaming is dying a fast death. Buy-to-play is the norm now, and WoW remains one of the last sub-based holdouts. The >three million active, non-Chinese subscribers still hanging in there is evidence enough of this trend. Blizzard has taken to merging servers (via a service called "Cross-Realm Zones") in a a bald attempt to prop up the "Massively" part of the MMORPG equation, a move that has incensed a large portion of their current player base.

    Look for further decline on the Activision-Blizzard front, along with a substantial leadership reorg, in coming months. Shortselling on the COD November release may prove profitable, provided that the COD box sales offset the rapid decline expected in WoW subscription revenue during this same period. [ less... ]
    This view is way, way off base from reality and ignores some very key negative influencers. There are also some bald inaccuracies offered here: -The "Titan" project is unannounced officially; there is no word on what financial model that franchise will bear, and the 2014 release prediction bears no relationship with any kind of reality. 2015/16 is the current "Best Bet" on a Titan release: indeed, "Titan" is simply an in-house code name for the project. -The non-Chinese 2.7 million sales figure on WoW's Mists expansion looks good on paper, but masks the fact that the game has lost an additional 1.9 million subscribers since the last quarterly report. The fact is that Mists of Pandaria, the expansion designed to hopefully draw subscribers back into the fold and to lure new subscriber blood into the franchise, has netted only about 700k plus-side subscribers since 1 July 2012. -One hidden and potentially crucial factor is the number of "Annual Pass" subscriptions which are set to expire over the next 90 days. The Annual Pass initiative was a 12-month contract initiative offered during the 4Q 2011 when subscription numbers were bleeding and there were no new content updates on the books. The offer drew in 1.2 million takers over the three-month offer period; approximately 7-900,000 of these are predicted to fall from the subscription ranks in coming weeks. -The CoD initiative never took off with gamers used to spending a $50-60 box fee and nothing more. The attempts to monetize this non-subscription franchise died on the vine, though the company is still trying ... The bald truth is that subscription-based gaming is dying a fast death. Buy-to-play is the norm now, and WoW remains one of the last sub-based holdouts. The >three million active, non-Chinese subscribers still hanging in there is evidence enough of this trend. Blizzard has taken to merging servers (via a service called "Cross-Realm Zones") in a a bald attempt to prop up the "Massively" part of the MMORPG equation, a move that has incensed a large portion of their current player base. Look for further decline on the Activision-Blizzard front, along with a substantial leadership reorg, in coming months. Shortselling on the COD November release may prove profitable, provided that the COD box sales offset the rapid decline expected in WoW subscription revenue during this same period.
    Anon commented 1 years ago
    Xbox live costs money.
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