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ADBE Logo
Adobe's Results Show Its Cloud Services Gaining Traction
  • by , 2 hours ago
  • tags: ADBE FB LNKD MSFT
  • Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) posted its Q2 earnings on June 18 and showed that its Creative Cloud offering is gaining traction among users. Additionally, the company saw significant growth in its Marketing Cloud initiatives. According to the company, it has over 700k paid subscribers for the Creative Cloud services that generated $356 million annualized recurring revenue (ARR) in Q2. Additionally, Adobe’s Marketing Cloud division’s Q2 revenues grew 17% y-o-y to $230 million. The only significant drop in revenue was reported in LiveCycle and Connect business, which reported $56 million revenues this quarter, down from $61 million last year. The company witnessed good adoption of subscription licenses and increased its end-user subscriptions for enterprise term licenses (ETLA) during the period. The company reported a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15 on a GAAP-basis and $0.36 on a non-GAAP basis. While the company reported 10% y-o-y decline in revenues to $1.01 billion, its net income declined by 66% y-o-y to $77 million. Due to change in licensing model from perpetual to subscription, Adobe reported an increase in unearned revenue to $691.3 million. We examine some of Adobe’s key drivers below and its outlook for 2013. Check out our complete analysis of Adobe Outlook for Q3 2013 and FY 2013 Adobe has guided for revenues of $0.975-$1.025 billion for Q3 2013. This would lead to Q3 GAAP EPS in the range of $0.10 to $0.16 and Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 to $0.35. Adobe expects to have over 1.25 million paid Creative Cloud individual and team subscriptions by the end of 2013, and according to our calculations, it means it will need to add over 21.15K paid users per week for the rest of 2013, 50% more than its current weekly subscription rate of 14.4k. This would give the company total annual recurring revenue of approximately $685 million. Additionally, we expect the company to end the year with approximately $800 million of Digital Media ARR at a revenue growth rate of 20% y-o-y, and we expect that its document services ARR will increase to $115 million by the end of 2013. The company also expects the LiveCycle and Connect business to decline further while the Print and Publishing business is expected to remain flat this year. LiveCycle and Connect business will contribute approximately $200 million to revenues in 2013. Adobe expects 2013 revenue of $4.1 billion and EPS of $0.62 on a GAAP basis and $1.45 on a non-GAAP basis. Cloud Subscription Services To Bolster Revenue Of Photoshop and Creative Software Division According to our estimates, the Photoshop and Creative Software division is the biggest of Adobe’s operating segments and makes up approximately 54% of the company’s value. During Q2 2013, this segment generated approximately $670 million in revenues. Recently Adobe abandoned its Creative Suite (CS) entirely to focus its efforts on developing Creative Cloud (CC), which will replace the CS. The company has stated that revenues from its perpetual licensing software will decrease by 2015 and it will continues to sell CS6 to ease the transition to CC. During the past quarter, Adobe reported an increase in adoption of enterprise CC offering through ETLAs and 46% sequential growth in CC’s subscriber base. Creative Cloud added 221k net new subscribers in Q2 2013, up from 153k last quarter. As a result revenue from CC increased by 50% sequentially to $356 million. Additionally, CC now contributes 81% to total revenues of Creative Software division. Acrobat Family Division Adobe Acrobat family is the second largest division at Adobe and makes up 13% of its value. Acrobat family division reported 3% y-o-y decline in revenues to $199.3 million. However, the decline in point product document services revenue were offset by increase in revenue from Acrobat cloud services. During the quarter, revenues from Acrobat Cloud services grew 31% sequentially to $84 million primarily due to increase in ETLAs. Going ahead, we expect document services’ ARR will drive revenue growth in the Acrobat family division. Digital Marketing Division Omniture is Adobe’s third largest division and makes up 10% of its value by our estimates. Adobe acquired Omniture in 2011 and since then has included all of Omniture’s products under its digital marketing cloud division. As a result, Adobe witnessed strong growth in its marketing cloud services in previous years, and this division has emerged as an important driver for revenue growth at Adobe. In Q2 CY13, this division reported a 20% y-o-y increase in revenue to $230 million. Additionally, Adobe Marketing Cloud achieved 25% y-o-y bookings growth in the quarter and the company has guided $1 billion in annual revenue. We expect that as big data analytics, mobility, social media and cloud computing gain more traction across industries, this division will report incremental growth in revenues as it has a portfolio of analytical tools that deal with marketing on social media and mobile. While this division contributed 12.5% to Adobe’s total revenues in 2012, we expect it to increase to 16% by the end of our forecast period. We currently have a  $37.50 Trefis price estimate for Adobe, which is 20% below its market price. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    BA Logo
    The Boeing And Airbus Dog Fight Heats Up Over Orders At The Paris Air Show
  • by , 2 hours ago
  • tags: BA
  • Boeing (NYSE:BA) announced Tuesday the commercial launch of its larger 787 Dreamliner – 787-10 – at the 2013 Paris Air Show. The aircraft manufacturer made the launch announcement with more than 100 order commitments for the 787-10 from airlines across North America, Europe and Asia. This comes barely four days after Airbus undertook the first flight of its wide-body airplane model – the A350 XWB – which is designed to compete with Boeing’s wide-body models – 787 and 777. With these major steps, competition between Boeing and Airbus in the lucrative wide-body commercial airplane segment has increased significantly. In other commercial airplane segments like narrow-body, Boeing’s 737 series already competes neck-to-neck with Airbus’ A320 family of aircraft. At the Paris Air Show, both these players have received multiple orders for their leading narrow-body airplanes. Airbus has also received a mega order worth $8 billion (at list prices) for 20 A380 superjumbos from Doric Lease Corp, a German aircraft leasing company. See our complete analysis of Boeing here . We are currently in the process of updating Boeing’s analysis and model. 787-10′s Launch Counters A350′s First Flight The larger 787-10 with a seating capacity of 300-330 passengers has been launched to take on the larger models of Airbus A350 that seat between 314 and 350 passengers in a three-class seating arrangement depending on the model. In comparison, the smallest 787 version – 787-8 – seats 240 passengers in a three-class seating arrangement and the next larger version – 787-9 – seats 280 passengers in a three-class seating arrangement. The 787-10 is expected to enter service in 2018, compared to the A350-900 which will enter service next year. In terms of noise levels and cost performance, which includes fuel efficiency, both 787 Dreamliner and A350 are top-notch planes. Both are made from carbon composites which makes them lighter and fuel-efficient. While Airbus says that its smallest A350 – A350-800 – is more fuel-efficient than the smallest 787 – 787-8 – with 8% lower operating costs. Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes CEO Ray Conner said yesterday, “ The [largest 787 - ] 787-10 is 25 percent more efficient than airplanes of its size today and more than 10 percent better than anything being offered by the competition for the future. ” All in all, with Airbus A350 making its first flight last week and Boeing announcing the launch of a larger 787, the competition in the wide-body commercial airplane segment has been raised. In terms of orders received so far, the B-787 trumps A350 by a healthy margin. Through May 2013, Boeing received 890 orders for the 787 Dreamliner and delivered 57 of these while Airbus received 613 orders for the A350 and will start making its deliveries from the second-half of next year. 777X Will Compete With The Largest A350 At the same time, Boeing is continuing to work on an upgraded version of the 777, dubbed as 777X, which will take on the largest A350. This plane which is expected to enter markets by the end of the decade will consume 20% less fuel than today’s 777. The company currently plans for two versions of the 777 – 777-8X and 777-9X. The former will seat around 350 passengers while the latter will seat around 400 passengers. The table below compares Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and 777 series with Airbus’ A350 family of aircraft on seating capacity, maximum flying range, price and entry in-service year. Parameter\Model Boeing 787-8 Boeing 787-9 Airbus A350-800 Airbus A350-900 Boeing 787-10 Airbus A350-1000 Boeing 777-300ER Seating capacity  (3-class) 240 280 270 314 300-330 350 386 Entry In-Service 2011 2014 2016 2014 2018 2017 2004 Maximum range 8,200 nmi 8,500 nmi 8,480 nmi 8,100 nmi 7,000 nmi 8,420 nmi 7,930 nmi List Price $206.8 million $243.6 million $245.5 million $277.7 million Not Announced $320.6 million $315 million Through these models, Boeing and Airbus are competing for a lions share of the $2 trillion wide-body commercial airplane market comprising of around 7,950 deliveries over the next two decades. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    SFLY Logo
    A Snapshot of Shutterfly's Business
  • by , 2 hours ago
  • tags: SFLY HPQ WAG
  • Shutterfly (NASDAQ:SFLY) is a manufacturer and online retailer of photo-based personalized products and services in the U.S. While the company operates in both the consumer and enterprise segment – the consumer segment represents the dominant part of its business accounting for more than 95% of its overall revenues. The company’s business is seasonal as more than 50% of the overall revenues are recorded in the fourth quarter. Revenue grew by 35% annually and 28% annually in 2012 and Q1 2013 respectively for the company. The growth in the number of customers and orders have been the key drivers for revenue growth in these periods. We expect continued strong growth in Shutterfly’s top line fueled by its inorganic growth strategy, innovation in its product portfolio and partnerships to boost brand awareness. Its operating margin grew to 6.4% in 2012 as compared to 3.3% in the prior year, mainly on account of decrease in sales and marketing costs, and general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues. The competitive landscape in Shutterfly’s industry is challenging with multiple competitors across the digital photography industry value chain.
    TGT Logo
    What Is Target Doing To Bolster Future Growth?
  • by , 2 hours ago
  • tags: TGT AMZN WMT
  • Target (NYSE:TGT) is one of the largest retailers in the U.S. with more than 1,700 stores in the region. Its huge presence in the country somewhat limits Target’s growth opportunities, and weakness in the U.S. retail industry has also troubled it. Target’s results were disappointing in the last two quarters due to the weak holiday season, prolonged cold weather and weak consumer spending. To sustain its growth, the company is focusing on its e-commerce channel which has performed relatively well. Target also recently initiated its international operations and is expanding in urban areas (where its presence is limited) in the U.S. with its smaller format CityTarget stores. For its comparable store sales growth, it is relying on its strong product offerings and rewards program to attract more customers.
    GOOG Logo
    Google's Waze Deal Will Boost Its Maps Monetization Efforts
  • by , 3 hours ago
  • tags: GOOG AAPL YHOO FB
  • Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has acquired Waze, a social mapping application, for $1.1 billion. While Google Maps is superior in terms of its reach and technology, Waze has caught on with users as it lets them edit maps with relevant social information such as police check post, accidents on road and places to visit. Google had recently overhauled its Google maps application, and this acquisition has further cemented Google’s position in Internet maps vertical. In this article we will analyze Waze’s valuation and also explore why Waze’s acquisition is important for Google. See our complete analysis of Google here How Is Waze Valued? According to Waze’s company blog post, the total user base for Waze has increased from 36 million to 50 million in the last six months. Google has paid $1.1 billion for acquiring Waze, which translates into $22 for each of Waze’s active user. This might seem expensive, but considering that Waze now has access to Google’s marketing spend and global reach, the growth opportunity at Waze is immense. Currently, Waze offers its services in USA and Israel, and in the last six months its user base has increased by 39%, which translates into an annualized growth rate of 77%. If we were to assume that Waze will continue to grow at this rate then its user base can increase to 115 million by 2014 and 200 million by 2015. Additionally, if each Waze user were to visit the application twice in a day, 115 million users can generate nearly 7 billion impressions (page views) in a month. Moreover, we believe that not all the impressions can be monetized as Waze charges only if a business’s pin shows up on its map. We conservatively estimate that only 50% of these impressions can be monetized, and therefore, Waze can generate $60 million revenues per year based on the current $1.50 revenue per 1,000 impressions rate in the U.S. market. At this rate, Google can expect to breakeven in 18 years. However, with Google supporting Waze with its technology and reach, Waze’s application can be launched quickly in untapped markets across different geographies that can result in increase in the number of Waze users. In such a scenario, revenues from Waze can be substantially higher and Google’s investment can be recovered sooner. Google’s Rationale For Acquiring Waze While it is argued that the primary reason for Google’s acquisition of Waze is to keep competitors such as Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) out of the mapping industry, we believe that there is more to this acquisition than meets the eye. Google Map, although very popular amongst users, has limited functionality with only location and mapping services. Google currently monetizes its maps by licensing APIs to websites. Google is testing new methods, such as sponsored map icons on the app and Google ad word searches placed next to Google Map to monetize its app. However, advertisers are apprehensive on spending ad dollars on maps as user engagement is low compared to other venues. With this acquisition, Google can now incorporate social element of Waze into Google Maps. Additionally, Google can also incorporate some of the Waze’s features such as user edited maps that generate real time information on maps and thus increase its user engagement. With increased user engagement, Google can better market and monetize its app to advertisers. Moreover, Google can also incorporate Waze’s user point reward program to encourage users to edit its maps. These rewards point could then be used for shopping across Google shopping and Google Offers platforms, and further increase revenues from cross-selling products. We  currently have a  $802 price estimate for Google, which is approximately 10% below the current market price. Click Here To Understand What Drives A Stock At Trefis
    CS Logo
    Singapore's Central Bank Raps 20 Banks For Rates Manipulation
  • by , 3 hours ago
  • tags: BAC BCS C CS DB JPM RBS UBS
  • Late last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced that as a part of its review of the Singapore Interbank Offered Rates (SIBOR) and Swap Offered Rates (SOR) over 2007-2011, it found 133 instances in which traders at 20 banking giants tried to rig benchmark submissions. The financial regulator promptly asked the banks to deposit additional reserves with it, with each bank having to deposit an amount between S$100 million to S$1.2 billion (~$80 million to $1 billion) based on the extent of its involvement in the wrongdoing. The banks will get their respective amounts back without any interest after a year – the interest lost essentially representing the fines for the banks. The banks are also required to tighten the “deficiencies in the governance, risk management, internal controls, and surveillance systems” to ensure that their employees cannot game the process for short-term benefits. The MAS handed out the fines to banks by placing each of them in one of four groups – with ING, RBS (NYSE:RBS) and UBS (NYSE:UBS) asked to part with the most cash. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Barclays (NYSE:BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), Citibank (NYSE:C) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) also figure on the list of banks fined in this manner.
    Bullish Investor Sentiment Left Unsupported; Stocks Set to Crash?
  • by , 3 hours ago
  • tags: NDAQ FDS AAPL QQQ
  • Submitted by Emma Davis as part of our contributors program . By Sasha Cekerevac If one were to look at the current state of the stock market, because of the substantial run-up in prices, one would think that investor sentiment is being based on the bullish opinion that corporate earnings will continue to rise. However, a look below the surface would reveal that corporate earnings are not growing anywhere near the levels necessary to sustain the current enthusiasm in investor sentiment. The corporate earnings estimates for the second quarter of 2013 are currently 1.1%, which is a drop of approximately 75% from earlier estimates of 4.3% made by analysts for that quarter. (Source: FactSet, June 14, 2013.) If corporate earnings do come in at 1.1% for the second quarter, while that would be the third consecutive quarter of growth for corporate earnings, eight of 10 sectors will see a decrease in corporate earnings growth. With 86 companies issuing negative guidance for corporate earnings during the second quarter, as opposed to 21 issuing positive guidance, corporate earnings are clearly stagnating. It appears that investor sentiment is far too bullish regarding the underlying fundamentals of the economy. As I mentioned previously, much of the move up in the stock market has not been based purely on corporate earnings growth; rather, the upward momentum has been due to investor sentiment fueled by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary stimulus package. A great example of the dichotomy between investor sentiment and the underlying corporate earnings is the technology sector. Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com By looking at the chart of the NASDAQ above, it is obvious that investor sentiment has moved into the bullish camp. However, corporate earnings are telling a different story. According to FactSet Research System Inc. (NYSE/FDS), corporate earnings for the information technology (IT) sector are set to drop by 6.3% during the second quarter. Even after taking Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) out of this index, as that company is a large contributor to the drop and will see a sharp decline in its corporate earnings, the technology sector is still set to see a decline in corporate earnings of 3.1%. In fact, corporate earnings for the technology sector have been relatively weak over the past couple of years. Yet looking at the chart of this index, investor sentiment has been extremely bullish. This bullish sentiment is not only in the technology sector, but the market in general, which has led to a valuation for the market above its long-run trends. The market’s current price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 is higher than both its five- and 10-year averages. If corporate earnings were set to generate high growth rates going forward, then the current level of investor sentiment might be warranted. However, with guidance for many sectors being negative on corporate earnings growth rates, this leads to the conclusion that investor sentiment is fueled primarily by monetary policy. The danger is that this aggressive level of monetary stimulus will not last forever. I think it is highly likely that some form of a reduction in the asset purchase program will be enacted later this fall or early next year; this shift in monetary policy will also bring a shift in investor sentiment, which I believe will lead to a substantial market sell-off. With corporate earnings not growing rapidly, there is very little left to keep investor sentiment bullish later this year. This article Bullish Investor Sentiment Left Unsupported; Stocks Set to Crash? was originally published at Investment Contrarians
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    Will Dell Shareholders Vote To Take It Private?
  • by , 4 hours ago
  • tags: DELL IEP HPQ
  • Dell ‘s (NASDAQ:DELL) shareholders are scheduled to meet on July 18, to vote on $24.4 billion buyout proposal by CEO Michael Dell and investment firm Silver Lake. While Dell’s management backs this proposal, the shareholders can also vote for the competing offer from activist investor Carl Icahn that seeks to keep Dell public. Carl Icahn led consortium values each share of Dell at $24, a price difference of 73%, compared to $13.65 offer from Michael Dell-Silver Lake. In this article, we will look at offers made by each consortium. Additionally, we will try to assess which proposal will be beneficial for Dell’s shareholders. See our full analysis on Dell Background In recent years, Dell has reported double-digit decline in revenues for its core PC sales business due to decrease in demand, stiff competition and lower spending by clients. Citing this decline, CEO Michael Dell argued that Dell needs to restructure its business and focus on high margin products and services that have recurring revenue streams. Since the investment outlay for restructuring Dell is expected to be high, Michael Dell proposed to take the company private. As a result, a special committee was formed at Dell in August 2012, to consider all possible alternatives that would unlock value for a shareholder. The committee contacted 21 strategic and 52 financial buyers, but a better offer did not materialize. The management at Dell, therefore, has recommended its shareholders to vote for the proposed privatization of Dell. Michael Dell-Silver Lake Proposal The consortium led by CEO Michael Dell proposes to take the company private in a $24.4 billion deal that values each share of the company at $13.65, a 25% premium over Dell’s price on January 11, 2013. The deal will be financed through a leverage buyout in which 90% of the funding will come from debt taken against Dell’s assets and cash on books while the remaining 10% would be pooled in by the consortium as equity. The consortium proposes to transform Dell into an end-to-end information technology solutions provider by focusing on converged infrastructure solutions, cloud solutions, application development and consulting. It also states that executing the new strategy would require at least three to five years and would require additional investments that could weaken earnings for two or more years. Carl Icahn- Southeastern Asset Management Proposal The Carl Icahn led consortium proposes to keep the company public and pay a one time dividend of $12 per share. The payout from this transaction adds up to $21 billion that will be funded through cash on Dell’s book and additional debt of $5.2 billion. The consortium holds 13% stake in Dell and in its proxy statement has urged shareholders to vote against the privatization proposal. In its letter to the board, the consortium has stated that the estimated value of Dell is close to $24, which is substantially higher than $13.65 per share on offer. The consortium believes that even after paying $12 per share dividend, the shareholders can still make additional money if and when the company turns around. Conclusion Dell’s shareholders will vote on both the proposals on July 18. In case the privatization proposal falls through, we expect the stock price of the company to plunge to pre-deal levels of $9. Additionally, Dell will have to pay $450 million to Silver Lake as termination charges. According to our estimates, Carl Icahn’s proposal will leave the company cash strapped and in need of additional investment for funding its new business ventures. We believe that shareholders are likely to vote for Michael Dell-Silver Lake’s proposal, as it not only shifts the restructuring risk to the buying consortium, but also frees up cash that can be invested elsewhere for higher returns. The $13.65 offer to shareholders is tempting and it remains to be seen whether Carl Icahn’s offer will sway shareholder’s decision in its favor. We currently have a  $12.50 Trefis price estimate, which is ~10% below the current market price. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    RAD Logo
    Rite Aid Announces Refinancing Measures Ahead Of Earnings
  • by , 4 hours ago
  • tags: RAD CVS WAG
  • The nation’s third largest pharmacy Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) will report its first quarter earnings on June 20. Fiscal 2012 was a good year for Rite Aid as the management’s continued efforts to revive profits resulted in a net income of $118 million – Rite Aid’s first profitable year in five years. The company refinanced a portion of its debt last year, which is expected to provide an additional annual cash interest savings of approximately $45 million. On similar lines, the company plans to refinance $400 million worth of its outstanding debt on books to take advantage of the low interest rate scenario and to extend the maturity of its existing debt. The new series of senior notes will be due in 2021, against its current outstanding 9.5% senior notes which are due in 2017. The refinancing program would have a positive effect on the company’s bottom line in this financial year. The company is expected to report revenues of $6.264 billion for the first quarter ending May 31, a 2.8% decline year-on-year, partly due to a lower number of operative drugstores and partly due to other factors further outlined in this analysis. The drugstore chain operated 4,652 stores on June 1, a net decrease of 37 stores over the year. View our detailed analysis for Rite Aid Express Scripts-Walgreen Dispute Resolution To Have A Negative Effect On Top Line Figures Rite Aid benefited immensely due to the dispute between pharmacy benefit management major, Express Scripts and drugstore chain, Walgreen (NYSE: WAG). Rite Aid added about $70 million to its top line as customers shifted from Walgreen to Rite Aid in order to continue filling prescriptions under their existing plans. The dispute got resolved in September last year and some customers started moving back to their original drugstore. Although, Rite Aid’s management estimates retaining about 75%-80% of the customers gained during the period, they also expect some more customers to shift back to their original drug vendor gradually. New Generic Introductions To Weigh Down On Revenue Generics had a 6.65% negative impact on Rite Aid’s 2012 revenues. According to a recent IMS Health report, total spending on medicines on a real per capita basis declined by 3.5% in 2012, as a result of declining use of branded drugs, greater availability of lower-cost generics, lower levels of price increases and reduced spending on new medicines. In 2012, 84% of total dispensed prescriptions were generics, up from 80% in 2011 and is expected to reach 87% by 2017. Another research report from IMS Health forecasts global generic spending to increase from $242 billion in 2011 to $400-$430 billion in 2016. We estimate this rising trend of generic usage to have a continuing negative impact on Rite Aid’s top line. Front-End Sales To See An Uptick Rite Aid’s continuing efforts to improve its same store front-end sales would deliver results as they are expected to increase by 0.4% year-on-year. This uptick may partly be attributed to the rising number of Wellness Ambassadors employed by the company to provide its customers with more personalized services and partly to the savings offered by the Wellness+ customer loyalty program. Rite Aid currently employs about 1,300 Wellness Ambassadors across its stores. The company also had about 25.2 million active Wellness+ members, which accounted for about 79% of total front-end sales in 2012. A member who has made purchases twice using the card in the past 26 weeks is considered to be an active member. Rite Aid also launched a “Nail-Art Contest” in May, in which customers had to submit their nail art designs at  www.riteaidnails.com to win 20 different prizes, including a $500 Rite Aid gift card, nail products from exclusive Rite Aid suppliers and “Gold” status for a year on Rite Aid’s free customer loyalty program, Wellness+. This was the second time that the company hosted this contest after receiving an excellent response in 2012, when the contest boosted front-end sales by 1.4% in the second quarter, as compared to the 2011 period. Front-end sales currently contribute about 33% to Rite Aid’s intrinsic value and we would be closely watching its contribution to the company’s bottom line in the upcoming earnings. We will update our  price estimate of $2 for Rite Aid after the company reports its first quarter results. Submit a Post at Trefis Powered by Data and Interactive Charts |  Understand What Drives a Stock at Trefis
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    Dish Folds Its Hand On Sprint But Ups The Ante For Clearwire
  • by , 4 hours ago
  • tags: DISH S VZ CLWR
  • The bidding war between Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) and SoftBank for Sprint (NYSE:S) appears to be over. Following the raised bid of $21.6 billion by SoftBank last week, and Sprint suing both Dish and Clearwire for getting in the way of its merger deal with Softbank, Dish has withdrawn its offer. Dish will now focus on acquiring a large minority stake in Clearwire. With Sprint out of picture, Dish will still continue to look for strategic partners in the wireless industry or build its own network. See our complete analysis for Dish Dish Withdraws Its Offer For Sprint Dish said it will not submit a new offer for Sprint as it was almost impractical for it to meet the Tuesday, June 25 deadline, given Sprint’s decision to prematurely terminate the due diligence process. This move appears to clear the way for SoftBank to acquire Sprint and gain a foothold in the rapidly changing U.S. wireless industry. Given the saturation in the Japanese wireless market, Softbank has been eyeing the U.S. market, which is seen to be offering more opportunities. While Dish can still submit a new bid after June 25, under the terms of the revised SoftBank offer, Sprint can no longer terminate SoftBank’s offer. Dish will also move forward with its ambitions in the U.S. wireless industry where it envisions providing bundled services of video, high-speed Internet and voice. The company will continue to seek partners and form joint ventures, bid for another player in the industry or start its own network. Dish already owns a pool of spectrum and has also bid for Lightsquared spectrum recently. (See: Dish Eyes More Spectrum With LightSquared Bid ) Spectrum is a very valuable asset in the growing wireless industry. While Sprint may be out of the picture, the wireless story remains intact for Dish. All Eyes On Clearwire When it comes to Sprint, it may be happy with Dish’s recent move at one end, but it leaves the hurdle for it to acquire rest of the 49% stake in Clearwire. Dish is currently competing with Sprint to buy Clearwire in which Sprint holds a controlling stake and wants to own 100% of it. Dish late last month upped its offer for Clearwire to $4.40 a share, which tops Sprint’s offer of $3.40 a share. Earlier this week, Sprint filed a lawsuit against Dish to try to block its tender offer for Clearwire. Dish said the lawsuit was a diversion by Sprint. Clearwire provides mobile and fixed wireless broadband communications services to retail and wholesale customers in Belgium, Spain and the U.S. It provides services to 88 markets in the U.S., covering 134 million potential subscribers. It owns rights to radio frequency spectrum in the 2.5 GHz range and provides service primarily using the 4G 802.16e mobile WiMAX standard. Clearwire’s spectrum is largely under-exploited, which makes it a potential target by many operators. Apart from Dish and Sprint, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is also interested in the airwaves owned by Clearwire. Interestingly, in the midst of this bidding war, Clearwire’s stock price has moved from $1.8 last year to $4.6 as of yesterday.  If Dish succeeds in acquiring a large minority stake, it will get certain governance rights and seats on the board of Clearwire. All eyes will now be on the Clearwire’s shareholders vote to decide on Dish’s bid due on June 24. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis