My Trefis

Join Trefis today!

Register to create your own "My Trefis" of stocks, news, and people that interest you.

Example question: Bloomberg reported that supply constraints are leading to iPhone shortages. Do Trefis analysts see a meaningful impact on AAPL?
Example comment: Competition will squeeze AMZN's operating margins from 4% to 2% meaning a 10% hit to the stock according to Trefis.
Name (Required)
Email (Required, but never displayed)
* Companies:
BSX Logo
What Is Boston Scientific's Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: BSX
  • Notes: See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    DISH Logo
    How Much Can Conventional Satellite Broadcast Add To Dish Network's Topline In The Next Five Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: DISH
  • Conventional satellite broadcast can add about $840 million to  Dish Network ‘s (NASDAQ:DISH) topline over the next five years.  The growth will be increases in fee per subscriber, partially offset by revenues lost through a decline in subscriber base. Fee per subscriber can increase owing to the regular periodic price increase. Dish Network periodically increases the price of its packages. It raised the prices by as much as 16% in early 2013 and raised some of its packages by more than 5% in 2014. Dish also raised prices in late 2015 following similar hikes by U-verse and DirecTV. Number of subscribers is expected to decrease due to the ongoing transition from conventional Pay TV to online video and growing competition. However, an increase in subscribers from the Sling TV service can have an offsetting impact. Our price estimate for Dish stands at $63, implying a premium of more than 30% to the market. Have more questions about Dish Network? See the links below: What Is Dish Network’s Revenue & Earnings Breakdown Based On Expected 2016 Results? What’s Dish Network’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? How Has Dish Network’s Revenue Composition Changed In The Last Five Years? Why Have Dish Network’s Revenues Increased ~20% While EBITDA Has Decreased ~20% In The Last Five Years? By What Percentage Can Dish Network’s Revenues Grow Over the Next Five Years? How Are Dish Network’s Revenue & EBITDA Composition Expected To Change By 2020? Notes: Global Large Cap |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap |  European Large & Mid Cap | More Trefis Research
    LULU Logo
    Is the Lululemon Stock Price Driven By Current Earnings or Sentiment?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: LULULEMON
  • The Price to Earnings ratio gives us the ability to judge whether a stock is fairly priced or not. In this analysis, we will use the PE ratio to estimate whether Lululemon’s stock price is driven by current earnings or by investor sentiment. That is, we will see to what degree the current PE ratio of the company’s stock is in line with that of the industry. The difference of $36.80 is a premium that one is willing to pay in expectation of future growth. In a previous analysis, we have estimated that almost 38% of the stock price is influenced by future expectations of earnings growth.  You can view this analysis  here . Possible Supporting Arguments: Lululemon plans to double its sales by 2020 to about $4.6 billion in revenues and $600 million in net profit (using 2015 results as starting points). Furthermore, the company plans to double its women’s business to $3 billion and its men’s business to $1 billion within the same time frame. In the recent quarters, management has been very focused on not only a large scale store expansion, but an increase in the average size of its stores. The number of retail stores has gone up from about 211 in 2012 to 363 in 2015 and the company expects to open about 60 more stores in 2016. Lululemon has been trying to explore new markets, especially emerging markets in Asia and, Australia and New Zealand. The company has opened new stores here while more are slated to open this year. DTC is going to become a big earner for the company with the growing E-commerce boom. Notes: View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    EOG Logo
    What Will Be EOG Resources' Revenue And EBITDA Composition In 2016?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EOG-BY-COMPANY EOG APC CHK COP
  • Have more questions about  EOG Resources  (NYSE:EOG)? See the links below: What Is EOG Resources’ Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? Why Is China A Key Factor In Determining Crude Oil Prices? EOG Resources Posted Weak 1Q’16 Results Driven By Ongoing Commodity Downturn Expect Another Weak Quarter From EOG Resources On The Back Of Depressed Commodity Prices Is Saudi Arabia Moving Away From Crude Oil? How Are Crude Oil Prices And Global Oil Rig Count Correlated? How Are Natural Gas Prices And Global Gas Rig Count Correlated? Notes: 1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com 2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to  our complete analysis for EOG Resources View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    UL Logo
    How Will Brexit Impact Unilever?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: UL
  • The Brexit’s impact on consumer products giant Unilever is expected by many to be largely limited over the long term. Admittedly, the outcome of negotiations that have yet to commence is unclear. That said, the economic balances that presently prevail among countries, markets and companies are likely to persist, so long as the most pragmatic parties drive them. Unilever has a presence in over 130 countries across the world and most of its products are manufactured locally. Unilever has taken pains in the last few years to localize its manufacturing facilities to reduce transportation costs and hedge against currency fluctuations. Therefore, the uncertainty around the UK’s trade agreement with the European Union is likely to have limited impact on Unilever. Further, Unilever reports its financials in Euro, which has fared comparatively better than GBP. Even if the dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro, it will only benefit Unilever’s revenue from the US due to the translation impact. It is worth noting that further depreciation of the Euro is possible if more countries decide to leave the EU. Lastly, Unilever plans to continue its existing operations in the UK undeterred even after Brexit. However, it did caution that “the way the company is run will be fundamentally different”. We believe that this could potentially involve a change in the company’s primary headquarters to a location outside the UK. Nevertheless, Unilever is already co-headquartered in Netherlands in addition to London. Thus, the impact of such a transition is likely to be comparatively limited in the short term and minimal in the long term. Our price estimate of $45 for Unilever is nearly the same as its current market price. See our complete analysis for Unilever here Get Trefis Technology
    GES Logo
    How Do We Expect Guess's North American Retail Business To Grow Over The Next 5 Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: GES ANN ANF LB
  • We expect Guess’s North American retail revenues to rise by about 23% over the next 5 years. Below, we outline of the reasons for this. Appointed in mid-2015, Guess’s new CEO, Victor Herrero had proposed several strategies to improve its store performance and expand the number of Guess stores in North America. Some of the strategies include: The launch of VendorNet(R) Omnichannel technology to optimize inventory across its stores and distribution centers. This will allow the retailer to fulfill online orders with store inventory. Guess’s new store related strategy includes gauging the performance of stores and enhancing investments in commercially important stores. Additionally, the stores will be segregated into three performance-based categories. The stock checking would be made more rigorous to make more timely replenishments. The company plans on maintaining an annual retail calendar so as to better target sales opportunities during mall events, promotions, or holidays. Guess’s proposed increased stock keeping units will point towards the more successful products and help in building the new and rapidly growing categories. Have more questions about Guess? See the links below. What Is Guess’s Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown? How Has Guess’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changed Over 2012-2016E? Guess Q4 FY2016 Pre-Earnings Report What Led To Guess’ Revenue And EBITDA Decline Over The Last Five Years? Guess: Fiscal Year 2016 In Review How Did Guess’s Stock Perform Vis-A-Vis Its Peers Over The Last 5 Years ? What Is Guess’ Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? How Did Guess’ Different Segments Perform Over The Last 5 Years? Guess Q1 FY 2017 Earnings Preview Key Takeaways From Guess’s Q1 FY 2017 Earnings Guess’s Expected Revenue And EBITDA For 2016: Trefis Estimate Is The Guess Stock Price Driven By Current Earnings Or By Market Sentiments? Notes: See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    ISRG Logo
    How Can Intuitive Surgical's Average Installed Base Change In The Next 5 Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: ISRG
  • We expect Intuitive Surgical’s installed base of da Vinci surgical systems to increase at a CAGR of 9% for the next 5 years. During this period, the trade-in of existing da Vinci systems will likely constitute around 39% of the overall da Vinci surgical systems sold. Intuitive Surgical allows its customers to trade in their older systems for credit towards the purchase of a newer generation system. As part of a trade-in transaction, the customer receives a new generation system in exchange for its older used system. See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    ATVI Logo
    Are Activision's Investments In Growth Expected To Increase Going Forward?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: ATVI
  • Activision’s investments in growth, represented by capital expenditure net of D&A, are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 4% between 2014 and 2018. However, the figure as a percentage of overall revenues is expected to fall during the same period, essentially meaning that revenues are expected to grow faster than investments in growth in the near term. This indicates that the investments are being made from a long term perspective. Have more questions on Activision Blizzard  (NASDAQ: ATVI)? See the links below. What Is Activision Blizzard’s Revenue & EBITDA Breakdown? By What Percentage Have Activision Blizzard’s Revenues And EBITDA Grown Over The Last Five Years? What’s Activision Blizzard’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? How Has Activision Blizzard’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changed Over 2011-2015? Where Will Activision Blizzard’s Revenue And Gross Profit Growth Come From Over The Next Three Years? Activision Blizzard’s Console Market Share Witnessed A Decline In 2015; Digital Channels Provide Respite Notes:   See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    BBY Logo
    How Much Is Best Buy's Revenue And Gross Profit Expected To Change In The Next Five Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: BBY
  • Have more questions about Best Buy  ? Click on the links below: Best Buy Earnings: Strong Performance in E-Commerce How Is Best Buy’s Revenue Composition Trending?
    BBY Logo
    How Is Best Buy's Revenue Composition Trending?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: BBY
  • Have more questions about Best Buy  ? Click on the links below: Best Buy Earnings: Strong Performance in E-Commerce How Much Is Best Buy’s Revenue And Gross Profit Expected To Change In The Next Five Years?
    EBAY Logo
    Here’s How eBay Can Benefit From Its African Expansion
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EBAY AMZN GOOG
  • eBay  (NASDAQ:EBAY) recently entered into a partnership with  an African online shopping start-up MailforAfrica.com, which will allow American eBay sellers to sell their merchandise to African consumers. The new arrangement, which is  termed as “eBay Powered by MailforAfrica”,  will enable inventory from all eBay U.S. individual and business sellers with a 300+ rating to be purchased by buyers from Nigeria and Kenya. The company plans to add other African countries starting with Ghana to this platform in future. Demand for foreign products is increasing in Nigeria and a recent market study revealed that shop owners stock their stores with over 80% of imported items to stay relevant in the market. eBay’s new partnership gives American sellers access to this growing market and this should eventually lead to an increase in the number of active sellers on its platform, as they get easy access to developing regions which are otherwise difficult to penetrate.
    AAL Logo
    Here Are The Key Factors That Can Impact American Airlines' Earnings Growth
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: AMR AAL DAL UAL ALK LUV JBLU
  • American Airlines (NYSE:AAL), the world’s largest airline by traffic, reported a sharp jump in its earnings in 2015, making it the best year in the history of the airline. The airline witnessed a notable expansion in its net income, largely due to the plummeting fuel costs during the year. In this note, we show how different factors impacted American Airlines’ EPS expansion in 2015. Key Factors Impacting American Airlines’ EPS Growth Jet fuel costs account for one-third of an airline’s total operating expenses. Thus, the steep fall in crude oil prices over the last year resulted in significant fuel cost savings for airlines across the globe. American Airlines was among the few airlines who managed to reap the full benefit of the slump in jet fuel prices in 2015, due to its policy of not hedging its fuel consumption. Consequently, the 50% drop in crude oil prices led to over a 40% decline in American’s jet fuel costs, resulting in cost savings of almost $4 billion. Due to these huge fuel cost savings, American Airlines announced its accelerated share repurchase programs during 2015. As a result, the airline repurchased 49.1 million shares and returned close to $4 billion to its shareholders in the form of share buy backs during the year. This reduced the airline’s share count to 668 million, which, in turn, magnified the airline’s earnings growth. However, American’s personnel costs increased by almost 12% due to its integration with US Airways during the year, causing its overall non-fuel costs to go up by 2.7%. This somewhat diluted the impact of lower fuel costs and the share buyback. Yet, the network carrier’s EPS almost tripled to $11.39 per share in 2015. Going Forward Over the last quarter, crude oil prices have shown strong signs of recovery and have improved more than 60% since the beginning of 2016. As a result, American Airlines’ stock has seen a downhill trend in the past few months, losing almost 40% of value since the start of the year. Keeping in mind the current market trends, we expect crude oil prices to gradually recover over the long term. Since American Airlines does not hedge its fuel consumption, we anticipate the airline’s margins to be severely hit by the rebound in oil prices. For 2016, we forecast the airline’s EPS to decline almost 50%, as oil prices recover over the year. That said, the airline has an opportunity to repurchase its own stock at the current low prices through its accelerated share buy back program, and mitigate the effect of higher fuel costs on the EPS in the future. Have more questions about  American Airlines  (NYSE:AAL)? See the following links: Here’s Why We Revised American Airlines’ Price Estimate To $46 Per Share American Airlines’ 1Q’16 Revenue And Earnings Decline; Investors Penalize Airline For Downward Revision Of 2016 Capacity Growth Target US Legacy Carriers: A Comparison Of Aircraft Fleet How Important Will American’s International Operations Be In 2020? How Will American Airlines’ Equity Value Move, If Crude Oil Prices Rebound To $100 Per Barrel By 2018? Why Are American Airlines’ Domestic Operations More Valuable Than Its International Operations? How Will American Airlines’ Equity Value Move, If Crude Oil Prices Average $50 Per Barrel In 2018? How Did American Airlines’ Revenue And EBITDA Grow Over The Last Five Years? How Did American Airlines Use Its Increased Cash Flows In 2015? How Will American Airlines’ Revenue And EBITDA Grow Over The Next Five Years? What Is American Airlines’ Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? How Has The Oil Slump Impacted American Airlines’ Operating Margins? How Has American Airlines’ Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changes Over The Last Five Years? What Is American Airlines’ Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown? US Airlines: A Comparison Of Operating Margins US Airlines: A Comparison Of Dividend Yields Notes: 1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com 2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to  our complete analysis for American Airlines View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    TXN Logo
    How Much Can The Embedded Processors Segment Add To Texas Instruments' Topline In The Next Five Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: TXN
  • Embedded processors segment can add upto $1.2 billion to TI’s topline in the next 5 years. For the next 5 years, we forecast that the embedded processor market size will grow by 28% and TI’s market share to improve by 200 basis points. This translates to a 7% CAGR of TI’s analog revenues during this period. Notes: See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    MDT Logo
    Why Is Medtronic Acquiring Heartware?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: MDT
  • Medtronic  (NYSE:MDT) said Monday that it had entered into an agreement to acquire Heartware in a $1.1 billion deal which will help it expand its current portfolio of heart products. According to the terms of the deal, Medtronic will pay $58 per share of Heartware, which translates to a 93% premium over Heartware’s closing price on Friday. Below we discuss the key reasons as to why Medtronic might be considering this acqusition: Expand Its Current Heart Portfolio:  Medtronic is already a leader in the coronary stent market and cardiac rhythm management products. This acquisition will help Medtronic expand its current breadth of heart failure products. The company’s strategy to expand its offering to all heart-failure devices will likely pay-off in the future. This comes from the fact that with an aging population and the high costs required to cure heart failure, the healthcare expenditures in the U.S. are expected to rise and reach approximately $39 billion per year. This makes it one of the largest expense areas in the healthcare system. It is also worth noting that the number of patients with heart failure could exceed 8 million by 2030. With this acquisition, Medtronic will be able to market Heartware’s proprietary Ventricular Assist System (the “HVAD”) that includes an implantable blood pump, which is a continuous flow blood pump capable of pumping up to 10 liters of blood per minute. This provides circulatory support for patients in the advanced stage of heart failure. Futher, the HVAD System is implanted adjacent to the heart, avoiding abdominal surgery, which is generally required to implant similar devices. An Easy Market To Tap: In the last few years, the market for ventricular assist devices has been primarily dominated by Thoratec and Heartware, along with a few other relatively smaller players. None of the major device companies participated in this market until St. Jude Medical announced  its acquisition of Thoratec in a $3.4 billion deal in 2015. With the acquisition of Heartware, Medtronic has also marked its entrance into the $800 million ventricular assist device(VAD) market, which it expects to grow in double digits post 2017. (( Medtronic to Expand Heart Failure Portfolio with Acquisition of Heartware International, Medtronic Investor Relations, June 27, 2016) Medtronic Can Easily Absorb Heartware’s Losses: Due to problems related to HVAD devices and a failed  acquisition attempt, Heartware’s stock has fallen by around 60% over the past year. Further, the company hasn’t yet turned profitable since it went public in 2009. This comes from the fact that more than 40% of Heartware’s expenditures are related to research and development expense. Medtronic’s strong cash position can help fund these expenses for Heartware. Fully Implantable VAD Opportunity:  The current VAD devices use a driveline to connect the heart pump in the body to an external power device for energy transfer and monitoring. A large number of players in this market, including Heartware, are trying to develop a fully implantable VAD, which would remove the need of a driveline by having a wireless connection to the external device. After the completion of the acquisition, Medtronic can accelerate the process of the development of a fully implantable VAD by pumping-in more cash for the research and development of such a device. It must be noted that there are no such devices in the market currently and Medtronic might want to capture the first mover’s advantage by successfully developing a fully implantable VAD. See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology      
    NDAQ Logo
    What Will Be The Likely Impact Of NASDAQ's Acquisitions On Its Revenue Mix?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: NDAQ CME ICE
  • NASDAQ has undertaken a number of acquisitions this year. Some of the more notable ones are: International Securities Exchange (ISE), to help Nasdaq bolster its presence in the highly competitive exchange industry Marketwired, a provider of news distribution services and analytics Chi-X Canada, to establish its foothold in the Canadian financial market. These acquisitions are aimed at growing the company’s various divisions, accumulating new technologies and abilities, while at the same time promoting inorganic growth. The table below looks at the impact of NASDAQ’s acquisition of ISE, Marketwired, Chi-X Canada on its revenue mix. See the links below for more information and analysis about NASDAQ: How Is NASDAQ’s Financial Leverage Going To Change Post ISE Acquisition? How Is NASDAQ’s Revenue & EBITDA Compensation Expected To Change in 2016? What’s NASDAQ’s Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown In Terms Of Different Operating Segments? View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap |  European Large & Mid Cap
    EOG Logo
    How Will EOG Resources' Revenue And EBITDA Grow Over The Next Five Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EOG-BY-COMPANY EOG APC CHK COP
  • Have more questions about  EOG Resources  (NYSE:EOG)? See the links below: What Is EOG Resources’ Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? Why Is China A Key Factor In Determining Crude Oil Prices? EOG Resources Posted Weak 1Q’16 Results Driven By Ongoing Commodity Downturn Expect Another Weak Quarter From EOG Resources On The Back Of Depressed Commodity Prices Is Saudi Arabia Moving Away From Crude Oil? How Are Crude Oil Prices And Global Oil Rig Count Correlated? How Are Natural Gas Prices And Global Gas Rig Count Correlated? Notes: 1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com 2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to  our complete analysis for EOG Resources View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    ATVI Logo
    How Is Activision's Console Revenue Composition Expected To Trend In The Future?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: ATVI
  • Next generation consoles are likely to make up more than half of Activision’s console revenues this year, and this figure is expected to jump to 100% by 2020, since after another four years, it is likely that PS3 and Xbox 360 games will no longer be available. Have more questions on Activision Blizzard  (NASDAQ: ATVI)? See the links below. What Is Activision Blizzard’s Revenue & EBITDA Breakdown? By What Percentage Have Activision Blizzard’s Revenues And EBITDA Grown Over The Last Five Years? What’s Activision Blizzard’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? How Has Activision Blizzard’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changed Over 2011-2015? Where Will Activision Blizzard’s Revenue And Gross Profit Growth Come From Over The Next Three Years? Activision Blizzard’s Console Market Share Witnessed A Decline In 2015; Digital Channels Provide Respite Notes:   See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    LRLCY Logo
    What Are Some Of The Trends Expected To Drive The Future Of The Beauty Market?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: AVP EL LRLCY REV
  • We expect the global makeup, skincare, and hair care market to grow as follows: The major trends that are expected to influence the beauty market in the future are as follows: Increasing Technological Dependence Along with the increasing dependence on technology in their daily lives, consumers are becoming inclined towards beauty brands that are also technologically advanced. Major players in the beauty sector are increasing their investments in digital initiatives. The global beauty leader, L’Oreal’s digital initiatives include launching beauty apps, developing flexible wearable electronics to collect and transmit data from the body, and the extensive use of social media marketing. Currently, the company is aiming to link its products via the Internet of Things (IoT). Reminding consumers to use their products, tracking frequency of usage, and feedback on the impact of the product on the user, could prove to be valuable features to attract more users in the future. Rise In Demand For Cosmetics That Requires Minimum Water Usage Along with the scarcity of water across the globe over time, more consumers will prefer products that require no water or minimal amount of water . The rising demand for products such as facial wipes, dry shampoos, and non-rinse body washes are an indication towards this trend. Increased Demand For Organic Beauty Products Customers are becoming more conscious about the ill-effects of chemicals and preservatives on their skin and bodies. Hence, the demand for herbal and organic products is on the rise. The organic personal care market across the world is expected to increase from ~ $8.5 billion in 2013 to around $16 billion by 2020 .   Have more questions on L’Oreal ? See the links below. What Is L’Oreal’s Fundamental Value On The Basis Of Its Forecasted 2015 Results? How Has L’Oreal’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changed Over 2012-2016E? L’Oreal: Year 2015 In Review What Is L’Oreal’s Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? L’Oreal’s Q1 2016 Earnings Results How Did The Top Two Beauty Companies Perform In The Fragrance Segment Over The Last Five Years? How Can L’Oreal’s Digital Investments Help The Company? Who Relies More On Debt: L’Oreal Or Estee Lauder? Notes:
    RL Logo
    How Will Ralph Lauren Perform In 2016?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: RL COH
  • Ralph Lauren’s  (NYSE:RL) performance in recent quarters has been quite poor. This has prompted the company to develop a transformation plan, which would involve closure of unproductive stores, reduction in the workforce, more efficient inventory management, and shorter production cycles. The company recently provided guidance for FY 2017 (year ended March 2017) which showed revenue declines to continue. Ralph Lauren expects its performance to stabilize in FY 2018, with improving margins in FY 2018 and FY 2019. The company also expects to return to profitable growth in FY 2019, with market share gains in FY 2020. Have more questions on Ralph Lauren? See the links below: How Has Ralph Lauren Performed In Terms Of Inventory Management? What Are The Challenges Facing Ralph Lauren? What Led To A Sudden Drop In Ralph Lauren’s Share Price? What Percentage Of Ralph Lauren’s Stock Price Can Be Attributed To Growth? Ralph Lauren Q4 And FY 2016 Earnings And Revenue Beat Expectations Why Have Ralph Lauren’s Licensing Revenues Been Declining In Recent Years? How Have The Number Of Ralph Lauren Stores Operated By The Company Changed Over The Past Five Years? Why Is The Online Market Place The Next Big Thing For Ralph Lauren? How Has Ralph Lauren Performed In Comparison To Its Peers? How Has Ralph Lauren’s Sales Breakdown According To Geographic Locations Changed Over The Past Five Years? How Will Ralph Lauren’s Retail Division Perform In The Next Five Years? How Did Just The Month Of February Make Ralph Lauren One Of The Worst Performing Companies, Amongst Its Peers? Why Did We Revise Our Price Estimate Of Ralph Lauren To $102? How Will Ralph Lauren’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Change In The Next 3 Years? What Is Ralph Lauren’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? What Is Ralph Lauren’s Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown? Ralph Lauren: Year 2015 In Review Notes:
    EOG Logo
    How Has EOG Resources' Revenue And EBITDA Changed Over The Last Five Years?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EOG-BY-COMPANY EOG CHK COP APC
  • Have more questions about  EOG Resources  (NYSE:EOG)? See the links below: What Is EOG Resources’ Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? Why Is China A Key Factor In Determining Crude Oil Prices? EOG Resources Posted Weak 1Q’16 Results Driven By Ongoing Commodity Downturn Expect Another Weak Quarter From EOG Resources On The Back Of Depressed Commodity Prices Is Saudi Arabia Moving Away From Crude Oil? How Are Crude Oil Prices And Global Oil Rig Count Correlated? How Are Natural Gas Prices And Global Gas Rig Count Correlated? Notes: 1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com 2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to  our complete analysis for EOG Resources View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    PAYX Logo
    How Is Paychex Expected To Perform In 2016?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: PAYX ADP
  • EBAY Logo
    How Do Sales & Administrative Costs Impact eBay's Income?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EBAY AMZN
  • Sales, marketing and administrative expenses are major operating costs for  eBay   (NASDAQ:EBAY), accounting for close to 40% of its total operating expenses in 2015. Considering eBay has to compete against behemoth Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the e-commerce space, its marketing costs were expected to increase but its top line growth has not been commensurate with the increasing investments and advertisements. We see below that eBay’s sales, marketing, general and administrative costs as a percentage of revenues increased an average of 1.4 percentage points per year from 2013 to 2015. However, its operating margin declined at an average of about 2.1 percentage points per year from 29.7% in 2013 to 25.6% in 2015.  Considering how eBay’s sales, marketing, general and administrative costs impact its operating margins, it is important to understand whether eBay is moving towards operational efficiency in light of the rising dominance of Amazon. In the first quarter this year, eBay’s operating margin improved 310 basis points over the prior year quarter, owing to a 4.9% decline in sales, marketing, general and administrative costs as a percentage of revenues.  This in fact is the silver lining in eBay’s dismal sales performance in the first quarter this year. Compared to Amazon’s solid over 15% year-over-year growth in the first three months, eBay’s same-store-sales actually declined over the prior year month in March 2016.  In our valuation for eBay based on the discounted cash flow methodology, we expect eBay’s EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) margin to improve at an average of 20 basis points every year over the next five years. If eBay’s EBITDA margin improves more than our estimate to reach 42% by the end of our forecast period, it presents an upside opportunity of 10% to the company’s stock. However, if eBay’s EBITDA margin declines in the face of rising competition to reach 33% by the end of our forecast period, it presents a downside of 10% to the company’s stock. Notes: 1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com 2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to  our complete analysis for eBay View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap  |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap  |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    PCLN Logo
    What Has Been The Immediate Impact Of The Brexit Decision On The Online Travel Companies?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: EXPE PCLN TRIP
  • Stock Price Declines Since June 23rd, stocks of all the major online travel agencies (OTAs) have declined significantly. TripAdvisor and Expedia stocks have both dipped by almost 10%, whereas Priceline stock had fallen by ~14%. The main reason for this sudden dampening of travel stock prices is the Brexit or UK’s decision to move out from the European Union, which was taken on June 23rd. All of the three OTAs are dependent on Europe to a great extent. Almost 50% of Priceline’s revenues, 25% of Expedia’s, and 30% of TripAdvisor’s revenues come from Europe. Hence, the changes in relationships within the European nations are expected to impact exchange rates and travel policies. However, the stock market is driven by human sentiments to a large extent. Hence, that might be the case for this potential overreaction in the decline in the stock prices of the OTAs because it is not until two years that the UK can leave the EU. The rules and policies among the European nations will remain the same till then. Thus, there might not be a significant real impact in the short-run on the online travel demand, on account of Brexit. In fact, some may decide that this might be a good time to buy a few of these undervalued OTA stocks. Given below are our 2016 Revenue and EBITDA growth expectations for the top 3 online travel companies. Cheaper British Pounds The British Pound depreciated by  almost 11% against the Euro on June 24th, the day after the Brexit announcement. If the British Pound’s decline continues then the UK might become a cheaper destination for international travel. On the other hand, local travelers from the UK might be at a disadvantage due to their devalued currency, when they consider international travel. This might translate to a decline in outbound travel from the UK, however, the inbound travel to the UK might rise. Hence, the overall impact from a change in currency exchange rates is yet to be determined. Have more questions on Priceline and Expedia? See the links below. What Is Priceline’s Fundamental Value On The Basis Of Its Forecasted 2015 Results? How Has Priceline’s Revenue And EBITDA Composition Changed Over 2012-2016E? What Is Priceline’s Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown? Top 3 U.S. OTAs: A Comparison Of Operating Margins How Has Priceline’s Stock Performed In The Last Five Years? What Drove Priceline’s Revenue And EBITDA Growth Over The Last Five Years? Where Can Priceline’s Growth Come From In The Next 5 Years? What Is Priceline’s Fundamental Value Based On 2016 Estimated Numbers? What Is Expedia’s Fundamental Value On The Basis Of Its Forecasted 2015 Results? Top 3 U.S. OTAs: A Comparison Of Operating Margins Expedia Year 2015 Review Why Might TripAdvisor Be An Attractive Acquisition Target For Priceline? Notes: See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology
    ADP Logo
    What Will Drive ADP's Revenue And EBITDA Growth In 2016?
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: ADP PAYX
  • ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) has reported 7-8% revenue growth over the last few years, fueled by higher demand for HR outsourcing and services in that period. HR outsourcing revenues have increased by over 15% in each of the last three years. Comparatively, payroll processing revenues have witnessed moderate single-digit growth in the last four years. In line with the trend over the previous years, we forecast ADP’s net revenues to grow by 8% in 2016, with growth primarily coming from HR outsourcing and services. Additionally, ADP’s cash operating expenses are likely to increase at the same rate as revenues, leading to a roughly flat operating margin over the previous year. According to our estimates, ADP’s adjusted EBITDA margin stood at just under 21% in 2015 and is likely to remain at around that level through 2016. It should be noted that the key contributor to the EBITDA growth is the corresponding increase in revenue, while the impact of changes in operating expenses is negligible for ADP. Have more questions about ADP? What’s ADP’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2016 Results? How Do Paychex And ADP Compare On Core Payroll Processing Business? What’s ADP’s Revenue & EBITDA Breakdown By Segment? How Has ADP’s Revenue & EBITDA Composition Changed In The Last Five Years? Where Will ADP’s Revenue Growth Come From In The Next Five Years? Notes: View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis): Global Large Cap |  U.S. Mid & Small Cap |  European Large & Mid Cap More Trefis Research
    SLW Logo
    Why We're Raising Our Price Estimate For Silver Wheaton To $20
  • By , 6/28/16
  • tags: SLW ABX NEM FCX
  • We are raising our price estimate for Silver Wheaton to $20.12, primarily as a result of an improvement in the outlook for gold and silver prices. An increase in macroeconomic uncertainty leading up to, and post the UK’s EU referendum, has increased the demand for safe haven assets such as precious metals. This has resulted in a surge in the investment demand for gold and silver and the prices of these metals. The extent of the impact of the referendum on global markets in the long term would depend upon how quickly and amicably the UK and the EU recalibrate their geopolitical and trade relationships. However, uncertainty created as a result of the outcome of the referendum would certainly boost the short term demand for precious metals. Moreover, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in the midst of rising global macroeconomic uncertainty, which would provide additional support to gold and silver prices. We have accordingly modified our realized price and margin forecasts for Silver Wheaton’s various divisions, resulting in our new price estimate for the company. Have more questions about Silver Wheaton? See the links below. What Is Silver Wheaton’s Revenue And EBITDA Breakdown? What Is Silver Wheaton’s Fundamental Value Based On Expected 2015 Results? How Has Silver Wheaton’s Revenue Composition Changed Over The Last 4 Years? By What Percentage Did Silver Wheaton’s Revenue & EBITDA Decline In The Last 4 Years? By What Percentage Can Silver Wheaton’s Revenue & EBITDA Grow In The Next 3 Years? By What Percentage Will Silver Wheaton’s Silver Equivalent Production Increase If Production Commences At The Pascua-Lama Mine? How Will Silver Wheaton’s Revenue Composition Change Over The Next 5 Years? How Do Silver Wheaton’s Margins Compare With Those Of Traditional Precious Metal Mining Companies? Notes: See More at Trefis | View Interactive Institutional Research (Powered by Trefis) Get Trefis Technology