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Investment Overview for Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC)
Below are key drivers of Wells Fargo's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Wells Fargo:
- Net Interest Yield on Mortgage Loans: We currently estimate that the net interest yield on Wells Fargo's home mortgage loans will increase going forward from 3.87% in 2015 to 4% by the end of the Trefis forecast period as the interest rate environment improves. However, there could be a 5% upside to the Trefis price estimate if the yield figure reaches the 4.5%-level seen over 2005-2007.
- Provisions as % of Mortgage Loans: We currently forecast that the credit losses on Wells Fargo's outstanding home mortgage loans as a percentage of the total loans will normalize around 0.5%. There could be 4% upside to the Trefis price estimate if provision for credit losses were to remain around current levels in the future. On the other hand, if the credit losses as a percentage of loans settle around 1% there could be a potential downside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate.
Asset Management & Brokerage
- Brokerage Advisory, Commissions & Other Fees: We currently forecast that Wells Fargo's brokerage advisory fees and other commissions from the asset management and brokerage business will rise rapidly from $9.4 billion in 2015 to over $11.5 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period at an annualized rate of 3%. There could be a 5% upside to the Trefis price estimate if commission and other fee revenues increase at a faster rate to reach $14 billion by the end of the forecast period.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Wells Fargo at the top of the page.
Wells Fargo & Co. is a diversified financial services company headquartered in San Francisco, U.S. It is the third largest bank in the U.S. by assets and the largest bank by market capitalization. Wells Fargo originates and services the largest number of mortgages in the country. It is also the second largest bank in terms of deposits and debit cards in circulation.
The bank offers financial products and services for corporates, government, financial institutions, private and business clients throughout the world. Services offered include banking, insurance, investments, mortgage and consumer finance.
The mortgage division, consisting of home mortgage loans (does not include commercial real estate mortgage loans), mortgage servicing business and mortgages held for sale, is the cornerstone of Well Fargo's business model.
Wells Fargo is the nation's largest mortgage originator, funding one of every three mortgages in the U.S. The bank originated a record $524 billion in mortgages in 2012 - a figure that fell to $175 billion by 2014. Also, at the end of 2015 Wells Fargo serviced (processed monthly payments of home loans) $1.78 trillion in mortgages - one of every six mortgage holder nationwide - making it the largest servicer of mortgages in the U.S.
Asset Management & Brokerage, Deposits and Insurance & Other
Non-interest income generating divisions like Asset Management & Brokerage, Deposits and Insurance & Other are some big sources of value for Wells Fargo. The income from these divisions includes maintenance fee on deposit accounts & Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA), brokerage on trading, insurance fee, trust and investment management fee.
With more than 20 million retail bank households and over 2.5 million small business and business banking households, Well Fargo had more than $1.2 trillion in deposits at the end of 2015.
Wells Fargo is also one of the country's largest IRA providers and had $354 billion in IRA assets and $334 billion in 401(k) and institutional retirement plan assets at the end of 2015. The segment has great potential as currently only six of every 100 Wells Fargo customers have an IRA account with the bank.
Increase in cross-selling at Wells Fargo:
Cross-sell, meaning the number of products sold per relationship, has been been on the rise for Wells Fargo. A direct relationship exists between cross-selling and revenues for banks. As such, while the cross-sell for Wells Fargo's wholesale and retail banking increased at an annualized rate of ~6%, Wells Fargo's revenues increased at an annualized rate of ~9% (excluding increase in revenue due to Wachovia acquisition).
With plans to increase retail cross-sell to around 8 products per relationship from the current levels of just above 6, Wells Fargo will observe increasing revenues in the future.
High core deposits and low cost of funding:
Wells Fargo has a net interest margin (interest earned on earning assets minus interest paid on funding sources as a percentage of interest earning assets) of 4.1% (11-year average over 2005-2015) which is significantly higher than that for its peers Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.
High net interest margins at Wells Fargo are largely attributed to its large average core deposits (which include noninterest-bearing deposits, interest-bearing checking, savings certificates, market rate and other savings, and certain foreign deposits). Nearly two-thirds of Wells Fargo's funding comes from deposits, much higher than the peer average of under 50%.
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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