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Investment Overview for Travelzoo (NYSE:TZOO)
Below are key drivers of Travelzoo's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Travelzoo:
- Travel Related Revenues per Subscriber: Travelzoo saw its Travel Related Revenues per Subscriber fall from $3.7 in 2013 to $3.5 in 2014. Travelzoo introduced the hotel booking option on its websites in Q1 2014, bringing about a transformation in its previous business model with this option. The hotel booking platform enables users to book hotels directly via Travelzoo’s website or through mobile products, thus allowing suppliers to promote deals in a more flexible manner. On the flip side, the hotel booking feature is eroding the very aspect by which Travelzoo was differentiated from its peers in the online travel space. The discounted deals were the unique selling point for Travelzoo, which to some extent is being overshadowed by the recent developments on hotel booking. Currently, the hotel booking platform (available in the beta version to selected members) has failed to generate enough traction, due to a limited inventory of hotels available. The offerings weren’t attractive enough when compared to its competitors, hence Travelzoo’s management intends to relaunch the platform with better content in the first quarter of 2015. The declining traction for Getaways, migration of more deals from the Getaway model to the new hotel booking platform, and the delayed revenue recognition from the hotel booking platform, have all dampened revenues from the Travel Segment.
If Travelzoo can maintain its Travel Related Revenues per Subscriber at the current levels by the end of our forecast period, there could be an approximate 10% upside to the Trefis price estimate for Travelzoo. On the other hand, if Advertising Revenues per Subscriber declines at a much faster rate of 7% per year instead of the currently assumed rate of 2%, there would be a 15% decline in our current price estimate for Travelzoo.
- Average Revenue per Market per Week: Travelzoo's Average Revenue per Market per Week declined from $5,487 in 2010 to approximately $3,000 in 2014. The Local Deals division, which is mainly driven by a voucher format, is facing waning demand (the division reported a 22% decline in 2014). Travelzoo has started repositioning itself in the Local Deals segment by increasing the flexibility of its products. The company is moulding its local deals to better align with changing consumer needs, by offering user demand-based deals versus forcing them to choose from whatever is available. Towards this end, it is increasing the number of live deals on its platform and is also trying to find an alternative to the rigid voucher format of booking.
If Travelzoo is able to maintain its average revenue per market per deal at $3,000, there would be a marginal upside to the Trefis price estimate for Travelzoo. However, given the declining trend in local deals revenue, if the average revenue per market per deal declines by 15% each year till the end of our forecast period, then there is a marginal downside to the Trefis price estimate for Travelzoo.
Travelzoo is a global internet media company. The firm currently has a subscriber base of around 26 million and has operations in North America, Europe and the Asian Pacific region. Travelzoo provides travel and entertainment companies as well as small businesses the ability to efficiently reach out to consumers to sell their services and products. Apart from the main Travelzoo websites, the company also has several publications and newsletters across the globe which help it connect with its subscribers. It also operates Fly.com, a travel search engine that provides users the ability to find the best prices on flights from airlines and travel agencies. In August 2010, the firm ventured into the social commerce space by launching a local deals service which enables customers to purchase vouchers for local businesses such as spas and restaurants.
Travelzoo introduced the hotel booking option on its websites in Q1 2014. Travelzoo brought about a transformation in its previous business model with this option. The hotel booking platform enables users to book hotels directly via Travelzoo’s website or through mobile products, thus allowing suppliers to promote deals in a more flexible manner. With the launch of the platform, hotels have the option of selling full-price stays under the commission based model.
Differentiation and prior local offers experience acts as a competitive advantage
Travelzoo is differentiating itself from group-buying sites like Groupon, Living Social and AOL’s Wow.com by leveraging its existing hotel relationships and offering higher-end deals, often for hotel spa's and restaurants.
The local deals business leverages Travelzoo’s subscriber base for other products like the Top 20 Newsletter by providing it access to big mailing lists as well as serving as a great fit given its trained salesforce who have prior experience in selling local offers. This helps Travelzoo's local deals compete with larger competitors like Groupon right at an early stage.
Revenue synergies with other Travelzoo businesses to drive volumes for local deals
Travelzoo can package local deals with placements in the Travelzoo Top 20 newsletter, the company’s core product.
This will help Travelzoo expand its reach, thereby driving higher local deal volumes. Travelzoo's search engines, Supersearch and fly.com, which directs customers to ticket booking sites, can generate traffic for local deals as people also look for things to do upon arrival at a destination. The deals business can provide interesting entertainment and dining options. This presents an opportunity to leverage the expansion of search businesses by increasing the number of deals offered.
European online advertising growth to provide growth momentum
Travelzoo has more opportunities for subscriber growth and ad rate increases in Europe as the business in the European region is less developed than that in North America. There are over 15 million subscribers in North America compared to around 7 million in Europe. The biggest online markets by ad spend are the UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy and Spain respectively. Together, the top six account for almost three quarters of the total market. Travelzoo's European operations include its businesses in France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K, thereby enabling it to leverage the online advertising growth in Europe through its presence in the most attractive markets in the region.
Launch of hotel search to power search volumes growth for fly.com
Initially, Fly.com was only an airfare search engine enabling users to find and compare flight options and real-time fares from hundreds of airlines and major travel websites. In November 2011, Travelzoo officially launched a hotel and car rental search functionality on fly.com. After entering the search criteria, results can be filtered in several different ways to best fit traveler needs, including pricing, star-rating, location, amenities and type of property (resort, hotel, B&B or even hostel). Although Fly.com searches many hotel and online travel agency websites, users are encouraged to compare rates using the check boxes to find the best deal. Another key feature for travellers is extensive hotel detail pages that include virtual tours, detailed amenity checklists, hotel policies and honest user reviews.
Unlike air ticket bookings, hotel reservations require the travellers to conduct extensive search for best fares. Fly.com simplifies a users search by providing easy comparison of fares from different online travel agencies.
Increasing online advertising spend
Estimates from BIA Advisory Services and Kelsey Group have indicated that US local advertising revenues will reach $140 billion by 2015, up from $137 billion in 2014. The growing presence of online advertising has impacted traditional media outlets such as TV and newspaper, which have seen a considerable decline in ad spending over the past few years. Online/digital media is estimated to account for more than one-quarter (25.2%) of total local media revenues in 2015. Revenues for online/digital media are expected to grow from $31 billion in 2014 to $35 billion in 2015, representing a 13.1% growth rate. There are several reasons why spending on online advertising is increasing.
- The internet is widely becoming the preferred source of information.
- Inherent benefits of online advertising (real time updates and performance tracking) v/s traditional media approaches.
- The internet allows advertisers to advertise their sales and specials in a fast, flexible and cost effective manner.
- Suppliers are selling directly to consumers from their websites rather than through travel agents.
Economic weakness to weigh on advertising budgets
The advertisement business is also highly sensitive to economic downturns and the demand for online advertising is linked to the level of economic activity and employment in the U.S. and abroad. Travelzoo’s business model is highly dependent on online advertisements through travel, entertainment and other small businesses. Since consumer spending on discretionary items is highly influenced by the state of the economy, future economic headwinds may impact ad spending by companies.
Growth in social commerce
The social commerce space is one that has demonstrated immense growth in the past few years. It provides customers with different options for restaurants, travel and entertainment within their local cities. On the other hand, it enables merchants to promote their products and services quickly and efficiently to a mass audience.
BIA forecasts the US deals market to reach $4.2 billion in 2015..
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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