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Investment Overview for Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC)
Below are key drivers of Symantec's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Symantec:
- Symantec's Share in Consumer Security Software: Symantec's Consumer Security segment includes various products focused on making it simple for customers to be productive and protected at home and at work. The segment includes consumer security suites such as solutions from its flagship Norton brand, endpoint security and management solutions, encryption, and mobile offerings. Norton solutions account for a majority of revenues for this division. We currently forecast Symantec's Share for Consumer Security products to decline from around 15% in 2013 to around 12% by the end of Trefis forecast period. Norton antivirus software is known to be resource intensive and this continues to frustrate consumers. Additionally, free antivirus software like AVG and Microsoft Security Essentials provide adequate protection and Symantec is losing market share to them. If the decline in market share accelerates and reaches 9% by the end of Trefis forecast period, there could be a downside of more than 10% to our Trefis price estimate.
- Symantec's Share in Enterprise Security Software: Symantec's Enterprise Security segment includes product offerings that can securely conduct business. The segment includes enterprise security products such as Secure Socket Layer (SSL) Certificates, authentication, mail and web security, data center security, data loss prevention, and information security service offerings. We currently forecast Symantec's Share for Enterprise Security products to increase gradually from around 6.6% in 2013 to around 7.2% by the end of Trefis forecast period. Much of the market share gain is expected to result from security and business continuity offerings for deployments in data centers. There can be a marginal upside to our Trefis price estimate if Symantec can expand its market share aggressively to 9% by 2020.
- Global Security Software Market: We currently forecast the global security software market to increase from around $19.9 billion in 2013 to around $23.6 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The global security software market expanded at an annualized pace of approximately 8% between 2008-2012. However, growth slumped to 5% in 2013 due to increased commoditization of consumer endpoint security solutions, which has driven down average pricing. We expect the global market for security software to expand to $24 billion by the end of our review period. There could be an upside of 11% to the Trefis price estimate if the overall market grows at a faster pace to reach $28 billion by 2020.
- Symantec's Share in Storage Management Software: Symantec's Information Management division focuses on backup and recovery, archiving and eDiscovery, and storage and high availability solutions which ensure protection and availability of mission-critical applications and IT infrastructure for its enterprise customers. Symantec's share in the storage management market declined from 17.4% in 2012 to 16.4% in 2013, primarily due to market share gains from other storage management software providers such as EMC and CommVault. Symantec was a market pioneer, with a competitive edge in its data de-duplication technology. However, EMC rebounded strongly through its acquisition of Data Domain to capture market share from Symantec. We currently forecast Symantec's market share to decrease from around 16.4% in 2013 to 14% by the end of Trefis forecast period. There could be a downside of about 9% to our Trefis price estimate if Symantec's competitors are able snatch further market share, causing Symantec's market share to decline to 10% by the end of Trefis forecast period.
- Global Storage Software market: We currently forecast the global storage software market to increase from around $15.7 billion in 2012 to around $21 billion by the end of Trefis forecast period. Primary market drivers include product offerings such as file analysis, data backup and recovery, and archiving software. There could be an 8% upside to our Trefis price estimate if the growth in overall market accelerates to reach $26 billion by the end of Trefis forecast period.
Symantec makes money by selling three types of software:
- Norton AntiVirus software for consumers
- Storage software for businesses
- Security software for businesses
Symantec provides security software to both consumers and businesses that help them block malicious software ("malware") such as viruses, spyware, Trojan Horses, worms, bots and rootkits. The company's software blocks more than 245 million malicious attacks throughout the world every month, many of which are new threats. Symantec's software is also used to block spam emails and provide protection from phishing programs.
In addition, the company also provides storage software to businesses to simplify, standardize and manage their data center operations. This segment came from Symantec's acquisition of Veritas in July 2005 at a valuation of $13.5 billion.
Symantec also bought the SSL and Authentication business from Verisign in a transaction deal worth $1.28 billion in May 2010. This SSL business has been included in the company's enterprise security product division.
From a valuation perspective, Symantec's consumer security offerings continue to remain the most valuable segment for the company, amounting to approximately 44% of Symantec's value. Below, we have provided various factors that have contributed to our view on the segment.
High Share in Consumer AntiVirus Solutions Market
Symantec is the leader for Consumer AntiVirus solutions with a share of 40% in the niche market in 2013. Although its share has declined somewhat since reaching 56% in 2005, the company still commands a very high market share that is driving the company's overall valuation. One of the major reasons for significant competition in the consumer security software market is the high margin nature of the business. Symantec's margins for consumer security products stand at approximately 40% compared to 29% and 15% for storage management and enterprise security solutions respectively.
The increase in competition due to the advent of free and freemium consumer antivirus suites from AVG, Kaspersky, McAfee and TrendMicro has resulted in the marker share decline for Symantec. We believe Symantec may lose market share in the Consumer Internet Security Market due to
- High pricing of its products relative to smaller players
- Its reputation of being computer resource intensive, which continues to frustrate users
- Industry-wide shift from desktop and laptop devices to smartphone, tablet and other hand-held devices
Large Market for Information Management
Storage Software is a large market of around $14 billion. The major players in this market are EMC, Symantec, IBM, NetApp, HP and CA. EMC is the leader in this market with a share of around 24%, with Symantec at around 16%.
We believe the factors behind the Storage Software market growth are:
Exponential growth of data. Data requirements have risen at an exponential rate in the last few years and are expected to double every year going forward. Data de-duplication technology in storage software helps to cut storage hardware requirements and save tremendous costs for companies.
Dependency on critical business systems. Advancement in technologies have brought an increase in the number of automated systems. These systems are business critical systems and are required to be always "on". For example, an ATM machine of a bank cannot fail at any point in time, and high availability software assures the same.
Growth in cloud services and data centers. Advancements in software and application deployments and increasing demand for as-a-service modules across the IT stack has contributed to a rapid growth in data centers globally. The mission-critical nature of these deployments requires data centers to ensure almost 100% uptime. Storage management solutions help provide protection and availability of this data.
Increasing threat from complex malwares and phishing programs
Today's generation of malware and phishing programs have become more sophisticated, targeting Internet users and Internet Security companies such as Symantec. At the same time, the number of malware attacks have gone up.
For example, the Conficker and Clampi malware is the latest complex threat to attack the Internet users. It attacks websites of banks and financial institutions and extracts confidential information such as passwords, credit card details etc.
Browser based operating systems could reduce demand for separate security software
Symantec faces threats from browser based Operating Systems like Google's Chrome. Symantec provides software that detects malware and prevents users from downloading viruses or losing vital information. Chrome will essentially eliminate downloaded software by keeping all software running in the confines of a browser window and over the Internet. Thus, Chrome will reduce the need for people to download potentially harmful software from the internet.
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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