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Investment Overview for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
Below we highlight key drivers of Facebook's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Facebook.
Advertising On Core Facebook
- Facebook's International Average Monthly Active Users (excluding the U.S. and Canada): We estimate Facebook's average monthly active users across the world (except the U.S. and Canada) to grow from 1,129 million (average) in 2014 to over 1,850 million by the end of our forecast period. The availability of Facebook across the world, including markets where it is currently blocked, and continued success on the mobile platform will be key to achieving such growth. There could be as many as 4.2 billion Internet users worldwide by the end of our forecast period, suggesting that there may still be room for additional upside for Facebook.
There could be an upside of about 10% to our price estimate if these users were to increase to around 2.3 billion by the end of Trefis forecast period. On the other hand, the rapidly changing competitive environment could also cause Internet users to gravitate to other social networks and mobile apps in the future, leading to slower-than-expected subscriber growth for Facebook. If this figure rises to only around 1.3 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period, there could be over 10% downside to our price estimate
- Facebook's International Advertising ARPU (Except U.S. and Canada) : We expect this metric to surge from $5.5 in 2014 to about $16.0 in the long-run driven by the growth in ad pricing and the number of ad impressions on the platform. We believe Facebook will start monetizing its Search and Messenger platforms over the long-run, and this will provide higher ad inventory. At the same time, the continued roll-out of better and more targeted ads (such as video ads) will also drive pricing on the platform, thus leading to higher ARPU. Facebook is still under-penetrated within developing markets, and hence we expect the number of marketers to grow in international markets.
Facebook is the world's most popular social network that helps people connect with family and friends. The company makes money primarily through advertising, which it provides to advertisers by targeting specific demographics based on their information posted on Facebook. In addition, Facebook facilitates the purchase of virtual goods in games and applications running on Facebook's platform, charging a transaction fee on each virtual good purchased.
Advertising On Core Facebook
This remains the biggest division for Facebook, contributing for over 75% of its overall value. This high value contribution can be attributed to two main factors: scale and user engagement. Facebook has over 1.49 billion monthly active users and the user engagement within this base is also high. These stellar metrics are a result of innovative product development at Facebook which includes Timeline, NewsFeed, Messenger, Search and several other features designed with the long-term vision of ensuring that user stickiness to Facebook remains high. In future years, both scale and user engagement are expected to be strongly driven by growth in the mobile space.
Coupled with the high active user base, Facebook has also achieved success with its monetization strategy. Its move to raise the proportion of feed-based ads and make the platform less cluttered, has garnered success among marketers. Improvement in ad products, along with their targeting capabilities, has driven enhanced ROI and value for advertisers.
Monetization From Instagram and WhatsApp
We think the Instagram and WhatsApp platforms represent large sources of value for FB's stock. We believe the combined valuation from these two platforms could be upwards of $50 billion. Instagram's 300 million plus active user base along with high engagement levels on the platform, will make it highly attractive to advertisers (in our view). The company has begun monetizing Instagram and we believe this could start providing meaningful revenues going forward. In addition, WhatsApp has more than 800 million monthly active users. We believe Facebook will start monetizing this platform by 2017 once the user base on the platform crosses 1 billion. We think this platform can be monetized through several ways including annual subscription fees, in-app purchases, online payments, advertising, promoted accounts, social commerce, etc.
Payments And Other Fees
Facebook also makes money by acting as a platform for the purchase of virtual goods on social gaming applications, by partnering with gaming companies such as Zynga. Zynga's games like Farmville and Poker have been wildly popular, enabling Facebook to extract substantial revenues from the sale of virtual goods like Poker chips. However, the ongoing shift towards higher mobile usage from desktop usage, has caused pressure on this revenue stream. The payments from gaming business on Facebook could decline in the near-term.
Mobile Advertising to Drive Future Growth
Facebook has achieved success in its efforts to improve mobile monetization. The share of mobile platform in overall advertising business has risen from 14% in Q3 2012 to 53% in Q4 2013 and over- 75% presently. The rapid increase in monetization is being driven by growth in ad pricing.
While the number of ad impressions declined by 40% during 2014, due to the ongoing shift towards mobile usage and News Feed ads; the average price per ad impression rose significantly by 173% during the same period, buttressed by higher prominence of ads, better targeting, and larger number of marketers on the platform. We expect the same trend to continue in 2015 as well, albeit at narrower rates.
Social Media Advertising Is Growing Explosively
According to BIA/Kelsey, the social media advertising market in the U.S could rise from $5.1 billion in 2013 to $15 billion in 2018 at a CAGR of around 24%. We expect Facebook to heavily benefit from this growth as its News Feed ads are popular and relevant among advertisers.
Growth Could Decelerate In 2015
We believe revenue growth could slacken in the near-term, due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and FX headwinds. In addition, the ongoing decrease in the total number of ad engagements could also limit revenue growth in the future. However, in the event, revenue contribution from other businesses such as Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp,etc starts picking up, then we could again see an acceleration in revenue growth in 2016 & beyond.
Other Platforms Including WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, etc Have Huge Growth Potential
We think investments on diverse platforms (such as Messenger, Instagram, WhatsApp, Search and Oculus) could reap multi-billion dollar businesses for the company in the long-run, and management hasn’t even begun scratching the surface of this potential. We think FB could start unlocking value in other businesses such as WhatsApp, Search and Messenger over the coming years. Overall, we think all these moving parts will continue to fuel the company’s top-line growth for years to come. We forecast Instagram to contribute more than $400 million in revenues during 2015 in our valuation model.
Acceleration In Spending Expected During 2015
During the Q2 2015 earnings call, FB's management guided to an expense increase of 57.5% and 52.5% (at the mid-point) in GAAP and non-GAAP terms respectively during 2015. Coupled with the expected slowdown in revenue growth, this could lead to margin erosion in the near-future.
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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