Articles for New York Times

20%+ Upside to NYT from Higher Revenue per Page & Unique Visitors for NYTimes.com

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Monday, August 9th, 2010 by Trefis Team

The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) competes with Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and AOL (NYSE:AOL) in the online advertising business. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $11 for New York Times’ stock, about 30% above the current market price of close to $9.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of New York Times’s\ (NYSE:NYT) stock over the last week: (1) NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) and (2) Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month. The members’ forecasts suggest that NYTimes.com RPM as well as Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month will trend above the Trefis estimate. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 23% for the NYT stock.

NY Times & International Herald Tribune (IHT) Online Ads & Other constitute around 21% of the $11 Trefis price estimate for New York Times’s stock. Hence the stock is quite sensitive to (1) NYTimes.com Revenue per Page View (RPM) and (2) Average NYTimes.com Uniques per Month. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

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iPhone, iPad Apps Boost NYT’s Mobile Traffic

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Friday, August 6th, 2010 by Trefis Team

The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) is seeing increased traffic to its site from mobile users. Management attributes the surge in part to new iPhone and iPad apps, such as the Editors’ Choice app, that allow mobile users to access specific content in new ways.

The New York Times competes with Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and AOL (NYSE:AOL), among others, in the online advertising business. We believe that mobile phone apps will help NYT attract more unique visitors. In part for this reason, we are raising the Trefis price estimate for NYT’s stock from $10.75 to $11.35. Our analysis follows below. … To read the full article Subscribe to Trefis Pro

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Mobile Initiatives Could Boost Yahoo by 10%

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Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010 by Trefis Team

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) has been going mobile in a big way lately. The portal site has partnered with Nokia and Samsung to integrate its content on their phones, and is also developing apps for the iPhone and for Android-based smartphones.

These initiatives are helping Yahoo attract millions of smartphone users to its platform, where it sells display advertising in competition with major portals like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Bing, AOL (NYSE:AOL) and New York Times (NYSE:NYT).

We estimate that this incremental traffic could create a 10% upside to our price estimate for Yahoo’s share value. Our analysis follows below.

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Yahoo Could See 5% Upside From Social Networking

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Wednesday, July 28th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), which competes primarily with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), AOL (NYSE:AOL) and New York Times (NYSE:NYT) in the display advertising market, recently announced its results for the second quarter of 2010. Management highlighted Yahoo’s ongoing push in the social networking arena, an area where it lags behind market leader Facebook.

If this campaign succeeds, we believe Yahoo could boost its unique monthly visitor tally to 800 million visitors by 2016, versus our current forecast of 650 million. This would boost the company’s display ad business, yielding a potential upside of 5% over our estimate of Yahoo’s share value.

Below we describe Yahoo’s recent social networking initiatives and provide additional detail on how they could benefit Yahoo’s business.

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Associated Content Deal Could Lift Yahoo by 4%

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Thursday, July 15th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), which competes with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), AOL (NYSE:AOL), the New York Times (NYSE:NYT) and others in the display advertising market, recently acquired Associated Content for around $100 million.

Associated Content has about 380,000 freelance writers that produce independent material on many subjects, ranging from hobbies to health and retirement planning.

We believe that the Associated Content will help Yahoo broaden its content offerings, which should allow Yahoo to add unique visitors to its site and also increasing the number of page views per user. If this scenario pans out, it could produce a 4% upside to our $21 estimate for Yahoo’s stock. Our analysis follows below.

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Potential 15% Downside to NYT’s Stock From WSJ Competition

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Monday, May 10th, 2010 by Trefis Team

The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) recently reported a 12% year-over-year decline in its print advertising business for Q1 of 2010 compared to same period last year, primarily as a result of the on-going macroeconomic declines in the broader ad market.  Furthermore, the company is facing rising competitive pressure from News Corp’s (NASDAQ:NWS) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) which is launching a NYC metro edition and aggressively luring new advertisers.

We estimate that the print advertising business constitutes a third of the $11 Trefis price estimate for NYT’s stock, making it the most valuable business for the New York Times (NYT).   There could be a downside of 15% to the Trefis price estimate if NYT’s US print ad market share were to stagnate around 11% as a result of greater competition from the WSJ rather than increasing to 16% share as we forecast.

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Video Ads the Future of Yahoo, New York Times and News Corp’s WSJ

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Thursday, April 29th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Online content portals like Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), the New York Times (NYSE:NYT) and News Corp’s (NASDAQ:NWS) Wall Street Journal are creating new revenue opportunities by increasing video content and video ads.  We estimate that the online display ad business accounts for about 15% of the $21 Trefis price estimate for Yahoo’s stock and about 30% of the $10 Trefis price estimate for the stock of New York Times.

We believe that these portals will increasingly bring relevant and quality video content online in order to drive growth in number of visitors as well as display ad revenues.

As the economy improves, overall ad expenditure is expected to grow and a significant portion will be spent online.  Below we discuss the advantage of online video monetization and how these portals are increasingly incorporating video content.

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Wall Street Journal is About 5% of News Corp’s Stock

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Friday, April 9th, 2010 by Trefis Team

News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS) owns some of the most popular newspapers like New York Post, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones and The Times that cover general, financial and local news.

Though quite diversified in number of brands, we estimate that the total newspaper business constitutes only about 11% of the $18 Trefis price estimate for News Corp’s stock.  This translates into a $5 billion business based on our estimated $46.5 billion value for News Corp.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is one of the prime contributors of value and and a growth area for News Corp’s newspaper business.  We estimate that WSJ contributes around one-fourth of the total newspaper revenues for News Corp and accounts for about 5% of News Corp’s stock.

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Apple’s iPad can help New York Times’ online ad business and boost NYT stock

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Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 by Trefis Team

New York Times’ (NYSE:NYT) online visitors and online page views could see a rise with the forthcoming launch of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) new tablet PC, the iPad, which offers a better reading experience compared to the iPhone and iPod Touch.  Taking cues from the positive impact of smartphones on nytimes.com viewership, we expect that the iPad can have some impact on the website’s unique visitors if iPad sales trend as we forecast.

With higher online viewership and page views, New York Times’ online advertising business could improve and replace the print advertisement business as the most valuable business for the company.

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New York Times – Online advertising vs. newspaper circulation

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Wednesday, January 6th, 2010 by Trefis Team

About 90% of the value of New York Times comes from three sources:

1 – Print advertising in New York Times (NYT) and International Herald Tribune (IHT) newspapers

2 – Circulation fees associated with selling NYT and IHT newspapers

3 – Online advertising at nytimes.com

We estimate that print advertising is the most valuable business constituting about 34% of the company’s value.  Which business do you think is the second most valuable?

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