Articles for Intel

Intel’s Server Processor Share Could Decline Further

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Monday, September 6th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Though Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has maintained its leadership position in the server processor market, it has lost significant market share points to rival AMD (NYSE:AMD) since 2005. We expect the declining trend to continue in the future though at a slower rate. The main reason for the decline can be attributed to the success of AMD’s Opteron microprocessors compared to Intel’s Xeon.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $25 for Intel’s stock, about 31% above the current market price of $18. Below we highlight why we expect Intel would continue to lose share to AMD.

Strong Competition Could Hinder Symantec’s Storage Share Growth

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Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 by Trefis Team

Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) is going to face stiffer competition from McAfee (NYSE:MFE), which was recently acquired by the semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Symantec competes with McAfee in the security software market for consumers as well as businesses, while its major competitor in storage software market is EMC-acquired Data Domain.

Fierce competition from bigger players could block Symantec’s market share growth in the storage software market, leading to a modest stock downside. We estimate Storage Software constitutes around 40% of the $22 Trefis price estimate for Symantec’s stock, (about 62% above the current market price of $14).

Potential 8% Hit to Qualcomm’s Stock from Intel-Infineon Deal

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Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 by Trefis Team

Mobile chipset manufacturer Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) faces a new challenge from mighty Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which recently expanded its mobile processor capacity by acquiring cellular baseband supplier Infineon for $1.4 billion in cash. Qualcomm also competes with Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), Freescale, Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL), MediaTek and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN).

Cellular basebands are chipsets that handle voice and data communication in wireless devices. Infineon’s customers include Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other mobile phone manufacturers.

We don’t see Intel posing a significant threat to Qualcomm in the short term. However, there could be an 8% downside to our $48 stock price estimate for Qualcomm if Intel manages to snatch a significant share of the mobile chipset market by the end of the Trefis forecast period. Our analysis follows below.

Is Nvidia’s Market Share in Pro Graphics Cards Sustainable?

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Saturday, August 28th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) faces challenges in the graphics market from players like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and AMD (NYSE:AMD), which are increasingly providing integrated graphics chips to PC makers that reduce the need for separate (discrete) graphics cards. One area in which Nvidia has a dominant position is the Professional Graphics Cards market. There is a risk, however, that Nvidia’s leading share will be eroded as integrated graphics cards become more powerful and if spend on high end graphics cards, like those made by Nvidia, is curtailed due to broader economic concerns.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $11.77 for Nvidia’s stock, about 16% above the current market price of $10.12. Below we highlight how Nvidia’s Pro Graphics Cards Market Share has trended in recent years and expectations for the future.

McAfee Deal Could Lift Intel’s Stock by 3%

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Friday, August 27th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is paying a handsome premium to acquire McAfee (NYSE:MFE), a leading security software developer. Intel’s bid values McAfee at $48 a share , which is about 48% higher than the Trefis fair-value estimate of $32.35 a share.

McAfee’s business has expanded with the breadth and complexity of online security threats. The company’s revenues grew by nearly 20% last year, to $1.9 billion. Intel hopes to gain a competitive edge over rival AMD (NYSE:AMD) by integrating McAfee’s security software in its microprocessors and chipsets.

We estimate that McAfee’s security business could yield a 3% upside too the $24.30 Trefis stock price estimate for Intel. Our analysis follows below. Read More »

Expectations for AMD Server Processor Biz In Line with Trefis Forecasts

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Monday, August 23rd, 2010 by Trefis Team

Trefis members expect slow and steady growth for AMD’s (NYSE:AMD) server processor business, which we estimate accounts for 44% of AMD’s stock. AMD mainly competes with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) in the server processor market.

Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for AMD’s two key drivers : (1) AMD Server Processor Market Share and (2) AMD Server Processor Pricing. The member forecasts suggest that both drivers will trend roughly in-line with estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $10 for AMD’s stock, about 58% above the current market price of around $6.

AMD’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) AMD Server Processor Market Share and (2) AMD Server Processor Pricing. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

Can Intel Justify $48 Per Share For McAfee?

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Monday, August 23rd, 2010 by Trefis Team

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) recently announced that it was buying McAfee (NYSE:MFE) for $7.68 billion in cash. After the announcement, McAfee’s stock price shot up from around $30 to $47. The Trefis price estimate for McAfee’s stock is around $32, while the Intel deal values McAfee at around $48 a share.

Based on McAfee’s fundamentals, we think Intel overpaid. However, we could be proved wrong if McAfee manages to dramatically boost its shares of the corporate and consumer security software markets over the next few years. Our analysis follows below. Read More »

Lower Expectations for Intel’s Mobile Chipset Biz

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Monday, August 16th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) mobile chipset business may trend lower than expected, leading to a slight downside of around 2% for the Trefis price estimate for Intel’s stock. This downside is based on forecasts created by Trefis members for two key drivers of Intel’s stock over the last week: (1) Mobile Chipsets Revenue and (2) Mobile Chipsets EBITDA Margin.

Intel manufactures chipsets used in notebook PCs, wireless connectivity products, ultra-mobile PC’s and mobile Internet devices (MID). Its major competitors in this space include AMD (NYSE:AMD) and nVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $25 for Intel’s stock, about 25% above the current market price of $20.

Intel’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Mobile Chipsets Revenue and (2) Mobile Chipsets EBITDA Margin. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

Potential 2% Intel Upside From Rising Server & Notebook Shipments

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Thursday, August 12th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) competes with AMD (NYSE:AMD) and nVIDIA in the notebook and server processors market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $24.78 for Intel’s stock, about 25% above the current market price of around $20.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Intel’s stock over the last week: (1) Global Server Shipments and (2) Global Notebook Shipments. These forecasts suggest that Global Server Shipments as well as Global Notebook Shipments will trend roughly in line with Trefis estimates. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 2% for Intel’s stock.

We estimate that Notebook Processors constitutes around 46% of our Intel stock price estimate. In comparison, Server Processors account for 21%. Intel’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) Global Server Shipments and (2) Global Notebook Shipments. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

Small Upside to Nvidia from Higher Share in Notebook PC Graphics

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Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 by Trefis Team

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) competes with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and AMD (NYSE:AMD) in the notebook processor market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $13 for Nvidia ’s stock, about 43% above the current market price of around $9.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Nvidia’s stock over the last week: (1) Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share and (2) Global Notebook Units. The members’ forecasts suggest that Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share will trend slightly above the Trefis estimate, while Global Notebook Units will be roughly in line. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 1% for Nvidia’s stock.

We estimate that Discrete Notebook GPUs account for around 7% of the $13 Trefis price estimate for Nvidia’s stock. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers: (1) Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share and (2) Global Notebook Units.